Jody Wilson-Raybould will not be running for re-election in Vancouver Granville.
https://twitter.com/EricGrenierTW/status/1413133641991995394?s=20
Wilson-Raybould's departure probably gives the Liberals a good chance of winning back Vancouver Granville, but I still think the Liberals are most likely looking at another Minority.
Interesting commentary by John Ivison
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-tories-across-the-nation-co...
It is entirely possible that it is a strong NDP showing that deprives Trudeau of his majority – a result that many Conservatives would privately consider a victory.
The only certainty at this point is that all the parties are flying blind when it comes to the real mood in the country. Are buoyant Liberal polling numbers based on post-pandemic euphoria that might go flat, like Champagne left out overnight? Or has Trudeau tapped into the spirit of the times, a development that might threaten the Conservatives’ status as the Official Opposition in the House of Commons?
Yes Trudeau has tapped into the spirit of the times but in an empty virtue signaling way. What I find most interesting is that he thinks the NDP could threaten the Conservatives position as official opposition. I have seen that coming for a long while but I didn't think for this election. If it could happen that would be great. This would be quite different from the NDP replacing the Liberals as official opposition to the Conservatives.
In that case it was a shifting of votes between the Liberals and NDP. That's happening too of course but the Conservatives dropping to third place, if it were to happen, would illustrate a shift to the left of the population in general.
He refers to what Trudeau has tapped into, and that is so. He has tapped into concerns over climate change and income inequality which is also why people are shifting away from the Conservatives and towards the Liberals and NDP.
People are not at all ready for O'Toole's messaging of fiscal prudence and a redesigned carbon pricing plan that is more market friendly. After this summer of heat, which has barely begun, people are finally getting scared.
Abacus Poll Approval Disapproval
Trudeau 40% 39% (+1%)
Singh 38% 26% (+12%)
O'Toole 20% 40% (-20%)
On Power and Politics, David Coletto of Abacus said Singh has 60% approval among young voters.
Comparing the three leaders shows that Mr. Singh has a nine-point advantage on good values over Mr. Trudeau, who is 10 points ahead of Mr. O’Toole. Both Trudeau and Singh are widely seen as optimists and modern, but voters are not sure if Mr. O’Toole is an optimist and tend to think he is not very modern.
Trudeau and Singh are relatively competitive in terms of being interesting. Singh has a 10-point advantage on “great ideas”, “gets people like me”.
Mr. O’Toole’s biggest vulnerabilities are a sense that he doesn’t have very appealing ideas, doesn’t really get the majority of voters, and hasn’t seemed interesting thus far.
If we concentrate our analysis on those who say they will definitely vote but haven’t yet made up their mind how they will vote, the data also show a modest advantage for Mr. Singh over Mr. Trudeau, both of whom are better positioned than Mr. O’Toole.
Mr. Trudeau’s biggest gaps relative to Mr. Singh are on “great ideas” and “gets people like me” where the NDP leader is ahead by at least 15 points. ...
Mr. O’Toole is competitive with Mr. Trudeau on “gets people like me” “great ideas” but neither scores very well with these voters. Mr. O’Toole’s biggest gaps behind Mr. Trudeau are on “modern”, “interesting” and “optimist”. ...
One of the more interesting voter segments we have been watching lately is women under the age of 30. Among these voters, Mr. Trudeau’s trails Mr. Singh by as many as 30 points on several of these traits.
The Conservative Party has often faced a challenge connecting with this demographic and these results suggest this remains the case. ...
According to Bruce Anderson: “While overall voting intentions do not at this point signal a breakthrough for the NDP, these numbers suggest that one of the variables that can make a party more competitive – a popular leader – is something the NDP has right now.
For the Liberals, the data suggest some negatives have accumulated over the years Mr. Trudeau has been in power but there remains a reasonably robust amount of positive opinion towards the Prime Minister – and quite a bit more favourable impressions that those that exist for Conservative leader O’Toole.
For Mr. O’Toole, while impressions of leaders can change a lot during the course of the campaign, this would need to happen in order for the Conservatives to improve their competitiveness with the Liberals. In some respects, the numbers for Mr. O’Toole reflect a view of the party he leads more than he himself, but if his intention was to present himself as a different kind of Conservative leader, this project is not succeeding so far....
According to David Coletto: “How we feel about a party’s leader is one of the most important factors in determining how we might vote. In 2011, Jack Layton convinced many of those who identified as Liberal to vote NDP thanks to their affinity for him and their dislike for Mr. Ignatieff. In 2015, Mr. Trudeau re-established Liberal support due to the optimism, change, and hope he offered and the excitement many voters had for what he stood for.
As we head towards a likely summer election call, our survey data suggest that Jagmeet Singh will start the campaign in a very strong position. He has a solid image built on a sense that he is modern, in touch with voters, and an optimist. His net favourables are the best of any federal leader at the moment.
Mr. O’Toole faces the opposite scenario. He has as many people who dislike him as Mr. Trudeau but half as many who like him. He’s seen as out of touch, old-fashioned, and lacking both charisma and good ideas. Both aren’t necessary to win but usually, a successful candidate has at least one to offer voters. ...
Prime Minister Trudeau would start a 2021 campaign in a stronger position than in 2019. More people like him now than back then and the contrasts with Mr. O’Toole are even sharper than they were with Mr. Scheer. Although fewer people are angry and strongly dislike him, 2021 isn’t 2015 as Mr. Trudeau has few supporters with a deep affinity for him to count on. His road to re-election is built on general satisfaction with his performance and a dislike for his chief alternative, Mr. O’Toole.
https://abacusdata.ca/party-leaders-canada-abacus-july-2021/
Thanks Jerry. That was all very interesting.
Mr. O’Toole’s biggest vulnerabilities are a sense that he doesn’t have very appealing ideas, doesn’t really get the majority of voters, and hasn’t seemed interesting thus far....
For Mr. O’Toole, while impressions of leaders can change a lot during the course of the campaign, this would need to happen in order for the Conservatives to improve their competitiveness with the Liberals. In some respects, the numbers for Mr. O’Toole reflect a view of the party he leads more than he himself, but if his intention was to present himself as a different kind of Conservative leader, this project is not succeeding so far....
So, voters think the Conservative party is uninteresting, doesn't get the majority of voters, and doesn't have appealing ideas.
Sounds about right.
On Facebook, there's a bit of a rumour that Harper is considering re-entering federal politics because of O'Toole's poor performance. Gaia help us.
Harper lost his last election. He can't save them. The social conservatives won't trust him again.
If he calls an election I hope that people follow him around and toss teddy bears at him in disgust. I am hoping that the internal polls are telling them it is a waste of time and money because the elusive majority is just not going to happen. The CERB benefits are scheduled to be massively reduced for those workers still covered by it. If they are cut in July as announced in the budget, I am sure it is a good NDP election issue right through the fall.
If he calls an election I hope that people follow him around and toss teddy bears at him in disgust. I am hoping that the internal polls are telling them it is a waste of time and money because the elusive majority is just not going to happen. The CERB benefits are scheduled to be massively reduced for those workers still covered by it. If they are cut in July as announced in the budget, I am sure it is a good NDP election issue right through the fall.
The Liberals are a lot of things and are great at speaking out of both sides of their mouths, but they are not fools and are likely to delay any such cuts to after the election if need be.
Stephen Harper? America is dealing with an aggreessive outbreak of political herpes. I don't want that crisis up here.
New Angus Reid shows Libs narrowly ahead 33 to 31 with NDP at 20. Greens tanking at 3%.
Singh by far the most popular leader.
Some indications that Lib vote is soft:
Only 19% of Lib voters would be enthusiastic if Libs got a majority.
Trudeau's disapproval rate is 56 to 41 but remarkable feature is that only 9% strongly approves of him while 39% strongly disapproves.
New Angus Reid shows Libs narrowly ahead 33 to 31 with NDP at 20. Greens tanking at 3%.
Singh by far the most popular leader.
Some indications that Lib vote is soft:
Only 19% of Lib voters would be enthusiastic if Libs got a majority.
Trudeau's disapproval rate is 56 to 41 but remarkable feature is that only 9% strongly approves of him while 39% strongly disapproves.
It seems there is anew EKOS coming soon which may show the NDP ahead of the Cons.
It seems there is anew EKOS coming soon which may show the NDP ahead of the Cons.
The info is hidden from non-"friends"
Sorry Bekayne.
Here are two tweets from Frank Graves hinting at what the upcoming EKOS will show. I hope both are right.
"Have GP support half of what it was 60 days ago . Meltdown"
"I have NDP insignificantly ahead and CPC at lowest levels I have seen in over 20 years."
I was thinking this morning of the difference between the one party system in China and Canada's democracy. In China they have over 90 million people dedicated to carrying out the programs they have agreed upon, to the exclusion of all other viewpoints. If any citizen wants to be involved in public policy they apply to join the party and they might get accepted depending on their background and education. If you don't get accepted they get to join one of the half a dozen parties that have no power but are advisory to the CPC. The CPC does extensive in depth polling and claims it is acting both in the best interests of the people but also are guided by the people. Of course spin is spin when it comes to governments but that is theirs. I am fascinated to see that while we are being overwhelmed by media and tech billionaires the Chinese government is instituting tough anti-trust and anti-monopoly laws, to ensure a functioning market economy with proper competition to protect consumers. They do seem to be trying to build a market economy to provide prosperity to their people.
In Canada we also have a small number of citizens involved in political parties but they are divided into teams. So if you want to be engaged in public policy you first have to join a party and find one of their candidates that shares your views or become a candidate and then spend years trying to get elected. Once elected the priority then becomes being re-elected.
The biggest irony is that in the face of our major problems the political parties in Canada are all concentrating on an election because the Liberal government wants to wield dictatorial powers for a minimum of four years. Canadian's say that China's government, by only one party, is wrong but in Canada it is the holy grail, in four year segments.
That is the focus, not climate chaos or housing or public health or pharma-care but will the Liberals get to rule unopposed. The kicker is that once elected the Liberals in majority seldom deliver on any of the ideas they campaigned on.
When one thinks about it, for a citizen to have a say in public policy, Western liberal democracy is a demonstrably superior system. Anyone who agrees is likely to want to buy a condo from Trump.
Sorry Bekayne.
Here are two tweets from Frank Graves hinting at what the upcoming EKOS will show. I hope both are right.
"Have GP support half of what it was 60 days ago . Meltdown"
"I have NDP insignificantly ahead and CPC at lowest levels I have seen in over 20 years."
Sounds like an interesting poll, although EKOS/Frank Graves sometimes underestimates Conservative support (as Angus Reid often underestimates Liberal support).
Angus Reid always pumps the Cons unless we are on the eve of the election when they fix they numbers to get them closer to reality. I don't find the EKOs polls nearly as biased.
There is no way that the Conservatives and Liberals are neck and neck especially with the NDP only at 20. O'Toole didn't suddenly get popular.
The riding is important to the NDP because it can “reflect national NDP performance,” MacEwen, who ran for the NDP in Ottawa West—Nepean in the last election, told iPolitics on Wednesday.
https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/22/the-ndp-needs-to-win-ottawa-centre-heres-its-plan/
O’Toole gave supporters and other party insiders taxpayer-funded contracts
By David Akin
July 22
Individuals and entities connected with O'Toole's leadership campaign won $237,00 worth of taxpayer-funded contracts from O'Toole's office during his first six months in office.
https://globalnews.ca/news/8053232/otoole-supporters-party-insiders-taxpayer-funded-contracts/
State Actors Could Use Blackmail, Threats to Influence Voters, Politicians in the Next Election, CSIS Warns
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/csis-foreign-interfere-1.6112986
"CSIS Director Vigneault has warned that China and Russia are Canada's two main antagonists when it comes to foreign influence operations. Report comes as Ottawa prepares for a widely anticipated election in the coming weeks..."
Which anti-Russia, anti-China, pro-Israel, pro-NATO, rules-based-international warmongers' party would they 'meddle' for? Pure bs propaganda which none of your 'choices' will disabuse you of either. Here's what you will really be voting for...
The New Cold War and the Hegemony of Global Capitalism
https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/the-new-cold-war-and-the-heg...
"A double-barrelled 'new cold war' is on, with the US-led empire of capital on one side and its rivals, China and Russia, on the other. The Canadian ruling class has enthusiastically enlisted to fight alongside its American partners. This camp has been the primary instigators of tensions with both countries that could culminate in a disastrous war between major world powers..."
'Singh hopes to build momentum on tour of Indigenous communities'
https://twitter.com/DobroMichael/status/1421553658257453057
"Singh and the Naturally Depraved Politician party are caging First Nations votes like they do every election. Mostly they rely on the uninformed and assimilated who don't understand that the NDP have nice smiles while they steal your pre-existing rights like with Bill C15..."
FNs: Don't Vote For Canada!
https://rabble.ca/babble/election-2015/fns-dont-vote-canada
Toronto MP Adam Vaughan will not run in next federal election
Aug 08, 2021
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/adam-vaughan-not-running-again-1.6134329
Great opportunity for the NDP. Joe Cressy could win it if he runs
Great opportunity for the NDP. Joe Cressy could win it if he runs
School Board Trustee Norm Di Pasquale is the new NDP candidate for Spadina-Fort York:
https://twitter.com/normsworld/status/1424524291907936259
Guys like Vaughan and Bratina came in to federal politics believing in their own mythology, now jumping ship after finally realizing they'll never be in Cabinet.
And both likely to go back to municipal politics.
Wiley move to wait this long by Vaughan. Likely not unrelated to the NDP race acclamation.
School Board Trustee Norm Di Pasquale is the new NDP candidate for Spadina-Fort York:
He has been "Acclaimed" the candidate for Spadina Fort-York. Because no one else submitted their name for the nomination.
'Adam Vaughn, Karen McCrimmon and Will Amos all announce they're standing down within hours of each other'
https://twitter.com/HarrisonRJ_/status/1424538593020817408
"Three more MPs stepping down who won't get their pensions if the election happens before October 19th. Despite all the rumors, I'm finding it hard to believe Trudeau is going to screw over a bunch of his buddies by calling it earlier."
I don't.
Guys like Vaughan and Bratina came in to federal politics believing in their own mythology, now jumping ship after finally realizing they'll never be in Cabinet.
And both likely to go back to municipal politics.
Wiley move to wait this long by Vaughan. Likely not unrelated to the NDP race acclamation.
Good point. Vaughan may have waited until after the NDP acclaimed their candidate before making his retirement announcement. If the NDP had known about Vaughan leaving earlier, they might have held a competitive nomination race and picked a bigger name to run.
Good point. Vaughan may have waited until after the NDP acclaimed their candidate before making his retirement announcement. If the NDP had known about Vaughan leaving earlier, they might have held a competitive nomination race and picked a bigger name to run.
No one else submitted their name to run for the NDP in Spadina-Fort York - hence the 'acclaimation' - so it looks like potential candidates felt no one could knock off Vaughan.
This article is fascinating. Imagine the Liberals spending $30,000,000 just before an election and not loudly proclaiming it to the media.
https://www.burnabynow.com/amp/opinion/opinion-feds-didnt-invite-media-t...
Brilliant ad from unifor:
https://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/alberta-diary/2021/08/unifor-uses-steph...
The ad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrjcZS1OCWM&t=17s&ab_channel=UniforCanada
The article also mentions....
Certainly there was nothing humourous about what Unifor National President Jerry Dias had to say about O'Toole in the union's news release. "O'Toole can't even control members of his own party while they move to attack abortion access and LGBTQ rights," he stated. "We cannot trust him to lead, and we're ready to take on this fight."
The dinos in the US represent about 70% of Republicans. The dinos in Canada only represent around 30% of the "Conservatives". They still doom the party. The Conservatives try to manage it by proclaiming their defence of freedom of conscience while declaring the party policy to be pro-choice and pro-LBGTQ2+.
The right has tried to protray rejection of their views as a form of intolerance but people know that tolerating intolerance is not "being fair to both sides".
The Reform Party took over the Progressive Conservatives and dug their own grave by encouraging social conservatives, culture wars, and resentment of central Canada and Quebec.
That's a pretty good ad, and very funny. Here is a link to the start of the video.
'Adam Vaughn, Karen McCrimmon and Will Amos all announce they're standing down within hours of each other'
https://twitter.com/HarrisonRJ_/status/1424538593020817408
"Three more MPs stepping down who won't get their pensions if the election happens before October 19th. Despite all the rumors, I'm finding it hard to believe Trudeau is going to screw over a bunch of his buddies by calling it earlier."
I don't.
I don't either. His dad screwed over his successor as Liberal leader by insisting he make a huge number of patronage appointments in exchange for his own early departure from the job.
Norm Di Pasquale NDP Candidate Spadina-Fort York tweets
"Out on the Queens Quay tonight getting nomination signatures for my Federal campaign!"
https://twitter.com/normsworld/status/1425235578287755266?s=20
Norm Di Pasquale NDP Candidate Spadina-Fort York tweets
"Out on the Queens Quay tonight getting nomination signatures for my Federal campaign!"
https://twitter.com/normsworld/status/1425235578287755266?s=20
If he's already been acclaimed as the NDP candidate, why does he now need signatures?
Norm Di Pasquale NDP Candidate Spadina-Fort York tweets
"Out on the Queens Quay tonight getting nomination signatures for my Federal campaign!"
https://twitter.com/normsworld/status/1425235578287755266?s=20
If he's already been acclaimed as the NDP candidate, why does he now need signatures?
The signatures are not to get a party nomination, they are to fulfill the requirements of the Elections Act for all candidates.
Saskatchewan NDP MLA Buckley Belanger of Athabasca is resigning to seek the Federal Liberal nomination for Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River:
Nunavut NDP candidate:
https://nunatsiaq.com/stories/article/lori-idlout-secures-ndp-nomination-for-nunavut/
Over 2,500 sign petition asking GG to deny any Trudeau request for a snap election [petition link included]
https://globalnews.ca/news/8097434/petition-governor-general-deny-trudea...
"...A snap election will be dangerous for many voters. A fourth wave of COVID-19 is expected across Canada this fall, more contagious than ever, as many people are still not fully vaccinated,' Democracy Watch said in a news release.'Voters who are vulnerable to COVID-19 will, completely justifiably, feel hesitation about going to a polling station to vote.'
The organization also argues that a snap election is 'illegal, dishonest and unfair' for many voters. Last month, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh asked Simon to refuse any request from Trudeau for an election, noting that the fixed election law states that every general election must be held on the third Monday of October four calendar years after the last one..."
Well that is stupid and Singh should never have put the idea out. The GGs role is ceremonial. Not even the Queen of England herself would refuse to dissolve parliament if asked by the Prime Minister of England but Singh wants the GG to prevent an election. Singh has lost all authenticity. It seems "Democracy Watch" favors the monarchy over democracy.
Let the people decide.
That's the sort of suggestion Lascaris would never make.
It's election posturing for sure but to be expected. If the Liberals call an unnecessary election and Covid numbers surge, people will be pissed and Singh is just reminding people this on the Liberals.
I wish the NDP was taking a more populist leftwing economic attack-for instance promising to stop the billions being wasted on the fuel guzzling useless fighter jets. But that isn't the NDP we get anymore. Lascaris would be an improvement in that regard for sure but this is just bog-standard electioneering and makes sense since it will be one of the Liberals' potential weaknesses.
No Pondering, Jagmeet is not being "stupid" at all. In fact he is being quite shrewd, positioning himself with those who oppose an unwanted election during the plague. He is also right constitutionally.
The constitutional question is far from clear cut but there is much to favour Jagmeet's position that a PM does not have unfettered power to get a dissolution, especially in a minority Parliamnt.
See Prof Peter Russell's comments in this article:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-theres-a-law-against-sna...
A Gov Gen has always had a reserve power to decline a dissolution where the government can continue or where an alternative government is possible. This is the view of the eminent Eugene Forsey in his seminal Dissolution of Parliamnet.
This position is even stronger now that Parliament has enacted the Fixed Elections Act.
It was also the view of the British Supreme Court a couple years ago when it ruled against Boris Johnson's attempt to unilaterally dissolve Parliament.
The other side will always cite the King- Byng affair in 1926, a dim memory of my distant youth. There Mackenzie King wanted a dissolution but the GG declined and called on Meighen to form an alternate governemnt. It didn't last long and King won the ensuing election.
But the electoral outcome didn't mean that the GG was wrong in his application of the reserve power. In fact all the constituitional authorities, Forsey feremost among them, are on his side.
Let's hope Lascaris does not make the dumb mistake of saying Jagmeet is wrong.
Democracy watch is also calling for it. Yes, the Queen still has legal powers therefore the GG as her representative, not the representative of the people, gets to decide whether or not we have elections. Nevertheless it has long been considered a ceremonial role not one with political power. If the GG is going to start over-riding the PM then I want an elected GG.
I'm fine with the left playing politics and electioneering but it needs to be authentic otherwise they just become yet another player that can't be trusted any more than the Conservatives and the Liberals.
Play it out. Say the GG says no, Trudeau, you can't have another election. The Liberals must continue to govern. Do you really think that will lead to a functional government? All Trudeau has to do is introduce some legislation with a poison pill for the NDP. Then the NDP has to accept it or be hypocrites for causing an election that is supposedly so dangerous.
In fact if I were Trudeau I wouldn't approach the GG. I would put out some confidence legislation and force the NDP to cause the election. Then I would play ads of Singh saying we shouldn't have an election.
edited to add, Lascaris won't bother commenting on this because he doesn't play politics. He only comments on important issues.
No Pondering, Jagmeet is not being "stupid" at all. In fact he is being quite shrewd, positioning himself with those who oppose an unwanted election during the plague.
But Singh has his own potential vulnerability on the issue of calling an election during COVID that some people are already bringing up. Singh was in favour of the BC NDP holding an election last year while COVID was still going on and before there were vaccines. He filmed a video message for the BC Election telling people it was safe and to get out and vote:
https://twitter.com/WaytowichNeil/status/1425124279516028929
I doubt that the GG will refuse an election call but I do not doubt that the Office has the authority to do so. I am hoping that if the Liberal's call an election they lose seats at the expense of the NDP in key Central Canadian riding and most of their seats in the Lower Mainland.
If the COVID is killing people in Ontario during a campaign that will be different than in BC when the election was in between waves and it looked like we were on the way out of the pandemic.
Democracy watch is also calling for it. Yes, the Queen still has legal powers therefore the GG as her representative, not the representative of the people, gets to decide whether or not we have elections. Nevertheless it has long been considered a ceremonial role not one with political power. If the GG is going to start over-riding the PM then I want an elected GG.
You are talking about a PM that the majority of Canadians did not vote for. Why should the minority of Canadians who voted for MPs that support the PM have more say than the rest of us? That is a pretty odd view of democracy.
Were you also a fan of the GG not allowing Dion to try to form a minority government because Harper had more seats and was PM? In both cases I think if a minority government cannot work with the majority of our elected representatives then they should get out of the way and see if Parliament can function without them. Saying a plurality of representatives should have more power than the majority is less democratic than giving the GG the ability to let the majority work things out when the plurality is unable to get along with the representatives of most Canadians.
Play it out. Say the GG says no, Trudeau, you can't have another election. The Liberals must continue to govern. Do you really think that will lead to a functional government? All Trudeau has to do is introduce some legislation with a poison pill for the NDP. Then the NDP has to accept it or be hypocrites for causing an election that is supposedly so dangerous.
Play this out. If the Liberals introduce a poison pill, that means it's poison for most NDP supporters and quite likely soft Liberal supporters on the left. That is a good thing for the NDP to have in their pocket heading into an election so they would probably be very happy if you were advising the Liberal party.
But let’s play out another very possible situation. Let’s say the election goes ahead to much expense in the middle of another wave of the Pandemic and voters land roughly where they were less than 2 years ago. Now what? Are the Liberals still unable to work with the representatives that the majority of Canadians elected? Do they keep delivering poison pill after poison pill? Is that a functioning ‘democracy’? I’d prefer a situation where the GG allowed the majority of our elected MPs to form a government regardless of which party won the most seats. It would make our governments a lot less arrogant and unresponsive. You’ve said in previous posts that you think MPs should have more power but here you seem to think the majority of our elected representatives should be held hostage by the leadership of the party with a minority of seats.
If Michelin's Jean had exercised her reserve power in 2008 to prevent prerogative we would have been spared another 7 years of Harper.
The opposition commanded a majority of the house and were able to demonstrate that. The recent British Supreme Court ruling denying Johnson a dissolution implicitly contradicts her succumbing to Harpe.
The GG has a role n preserving demoracy . Jean betrayed that and Simon clearly has the power to simply tell Trudeau to get back to work.
If Michelin's Jean had exercised her reserve power in 2008 to prevent prerogative we would have been spared another 7 years of Harper.
The opposition commanded a majority of the house and were able to demonstrate that. The recent British Supreme Court ruling denying Johnson a dissolution implicitly contradicts her succumbing to Harpe.
The GG has a role n preserving demoracy . Jean betrayed that and Simon clearly has the power to simply tell Trudeau to get back to work.
The idea of the unelected monarchy "preserving democracy" by preventing an election is one of these bits of mirror-universe 'logic' that pop up in Canadian politics from time to time. If Trudeau were way behind the NDP in the polls and asked Simon, who he just hand-picked, to shut down Parliament to prevent losing a confidence vote like Harper did because "it's too dangerous to have an election right now", left-wingers would be up in arms about it.
The monarchy is an absolutely ludicrous and undemocratic system that everyone gets to project their ideals upon. It's "legitimate" because it never acts, except that people want it to act whenever it's politically convenient for them – and most of those people don't bother informing themselves about the ridiculous conventions that propel it. But hey, it's Canada, where constitutional law is apparently based on the most convincing op-ed in the Globe and Mail.
But on the off chance we have anything resembling the rule of law, here it goes: If Justin Trudeau goes to Mary Simon and says "I don't have the confidence of the House. Dissolve it for me and give me an election", she doesn't have the power to say "Yes, you do." She can grant the dissolution or dismiss him and invite someone else (most likely O'Toole) to try to form a government, as happened in BC. Doing that two years after the last election would be unprecedented, but not impossible. And as was established under the 1926 Balfour Declaration and 1931 Statute of Westminster and confirmed under Harper (who threatened to have the Queen fire Jean) and Trudeau (who did the same for Payette), if Simon refused to do what Trudeau asked, one call to Buckingham Palace would end her tenure.
The British Supreme Court ruling denied Johnson prorogation (as Michaëlle Jean should've denied Harper), not dissolution. It's also not binding on Canada, since the 1949 Supreme Court Act abolished appeals to the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council and the 1982 Canada Act prevented the British Parliament from amending the Canadian constitution (and, in practice, prevented Canadians from ever amending it either).
Don't like it? Wish there were some kind of check and balance on a prime minister's ability to call an election? Well, then maybe it's time to consider a new constitution, instead of saying it "can't be reopened" and offering prayers to Rideau Hall to save us from democracy instead.
