Nova Scotia election 2021

There is a redrawn electoral map meant to improve the chances of electing Acadian and Black candidates and an increase to 55 seats from 51 that also reflects increasing urbanization. 

In 2019, an independent commission recommended the reinstatement of four so-called protected seats — Argyle, Clare, Richmond and Preston.  The first three were to encourage the probability of Acadian representation, while the Preston seat was reinstated to increase the likelihood that a person from the historic Black communities in the riding would represent the area. Many Acadians have taken seats at Province House but only five Black MLAs have ever been elected to Canada's oldest legislature.

Velma Morgan, who chairs the non-profit group Operation Black Vote Canada, urged the parties to run more Black candidates in ridings the parties believe they can win. In Preston, which is designed to give a Black candidate a better shot at winning, she would like to see only Black candidates on the ballot. "If you want to have diversity in this protected seat in Preston, we would expect that they would only run Black candidates in that seat," said Morgan.  "So no matter which party wins, there'll be a Black person elected in that riding."  (White) Liberal cabinet minister Keith Colwell, who has represented the riding 23 of the past 28 years, recently announced his retirement from politics.

Redrawing the electoral map was also needed because of population changes that have resulted in two more urban ridings and two more rural seats in southwest Nova Scotia. Overall it's a shift that favours the Liberals, according to Eric Grenier a political analyst — formerly with the CBC — but now with author and publisher of The Writ, an online political publication. "On the whole, they are better for the Liberals because, with the extra four seats, the Liberals would have won three of them based on the results in 2017," said Grenier. "That's not something that's really all that surprising because the Liberals had the majority government last time and they did well in the regions that have gotten the new seats."

But the new battle lines are not all good news for the party in power, according to Grenier. Elections Nova Scotia provided Grenier with the new map that also transposed the votes from the last election onto it, allowing him to come up with some interesting observations.

If people voted roughly the way they did in 2017, for example, the PCs are in a neck-and-neck race in Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank. "This was the riding that was won by a little bit less than a point by the Liberals in 2017, but now with the new boundaries, the PCs actually eke by with [a 0.2 per cent] advantage over the Liberals," said Grenier. Grenier said Queens, on the South Shore, is now "much safer for the PCs." ...

A riding change that helps the NDP is in Dartmouth. "In Cole Harbour-Portland Valley, [Liberal] Tony Ince won that one by four points," said Grenier. "The new riding, just Cole Harbour, where he's going to be running, the Liberals would have won that by two points. It's much more of a three-way race, where the NDP is closer to first than they were when they finished third last time."

There are at least 13 MLAs — 11 Liberal, 1 NDP, 1 Independent — have announced they will sit out the 2021 election.

Both independent candidates Alana Paon and former PC MLA Elizabeth Smith-McCrossin are running as an Independent.  That will, in theory, put all those seats more into play than in previous elections.  Grenier said incumbency has been a distinct advantage, especially in this part of the country.

"It definitely puts these seats up for grabs when there are incumbents that don't reoffer for re-election," he said. "In the rest of the country, often incumbents don't have that much of an impact. But in places like Nova Scotia, if there isn't an incumbent on the ballot, it really does shake up the riding and present an opportunity for other parties to take a riding away, that before, had actually been pretty safe."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/2021-election-general-vote-el...

The NDP has outlined its 2021 election program that focuses on people's needs as opposed to the Liberals' $209 million  cuts to balance the budget and the Cons plan to send half of corporate taxes back to corporations to supposedly pass onto to their workers. 

NDP Leader Gary Burrill says that if his party forms the next Nova Scotia government, it would bring in a $15-an-hour minimum wage, permanent rent control and 10 pro-rated paid sick days for all workers, all within the first months in office.

Backed by a number of candidates on Sunday in Halifax , Burrill released his party's so-called vision document, 60 pages that provide a 10-year outlook for the province if the NDP forms government after the provincial election on Aug. 17. ...

While there are items, such as rent control, increased minimum wage and access to same-day or next-day mental health care — which will be part of the party's four-year platform complete with costs to be released later in the campaign — there are also items that Burrill admits will take more time to achieve.

Those include guaranteeing single rooms for everyone in long-term care who want one and a review of whether Nova Scotia Power should remain privatized.

The NDP is also building on the announcement last week of a plan from the Liberals to bring in affordable daycare, by pledging to provide free care before and after school based in elementary schools, including pre-primary sites.

Broadly, the document lays out commitments — some short term, some long term — related to a variety of issues, including education, social supports, health care, the environment, natural resources and housing. ...

The party is positioning its campaign about people, while the Liberals and Tories, he said, are about cuts. He pointed to the spring budget passed by the Liberals, which calls for a reduction in department spending next year of $209 million as part of a plan to balance the budget within four years. ...

He also criticized Tory Leader Tim Houston's plan to increase wages for workers by sending 50 per cent of the corporate taxes companies pay back to them, if they agree to pass the money on to their employees. Last year, the province collected about $400 million in corporate taxes.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/ndp-gary-burrill-platform-ele...

The Liberals are facing a scandal over a female candidate who claims the party told her to lie and say she withdrew her nomination in Dartmouth South for mental reasons when the reality was that it was about "boudoir" photos that she claims she had already told the party about. The Liberals have a history of misogynistic complaints about them that is highligted below and Rankin himself had two DUIs in his past. The riding is currently held by the NDP. 

Ahead of the 41st general election, Nova Scotia’s Liberal Party is being accused of misogyny and double standards after a female candidate says she was forced out of the race over “boudoir photos.”

Robyn Ingraham was acclaimed as the Liberal candidate in the district of Dartmouth South. But on Saturday, she said in a statement posted to her Instagram page that she would no longer be vying for the seat, citing mental health reasons. However, in another statement posted Wednesday evening, she said she was told by the Liberal Party to lie about her reasons for leaving. “I posted the statement of lies. I posted because I was worried how this would look on the team that worked so hard to get me on board,” she said.

“But after sitting with the fact that I let myself and those around me down by hiding behind my mental illness to save something bigger than I — I was furious.” ...

According to the statement, Ingraham had been open with the Liberals during the application process about her “time in front of photographers lenses.” She said she has used a number of platforms to post pictures of herself, including Instagram, Tumblr and OnlyFans.

“I explained that I love to show off the artwork on my skin, and I have no problem taking boudoir photos alone and with my friends,” she said, adding that she provided an “extensive list” of her past and present social media accounts, provided tax statements and paid for a criminal background check.

“I explained to multiple people over the course of my application that if/when my photos were to come out, there would be a teachable moment for the community and province,” said Ingraham.

“This screams gender inequality from all angles, why should I be ashamed of my body and what I decide to do with it?” ...

Ingraham, who works as a barber, explained that as a small business owner and someone whose business was shut down due to COVID-19, she needed to look at other revenue streams.

“Having a platform to post photos and videos on that charges a subscription fee, among other features, seemed like a fast way to pay my bills and put food on my table,” she said. “Although, I shouldn’t have to explain myself. This platform is LEGAL. ”

She said roughly six hours after the party announced she was acclaimed as a candidate and posted a headshot, she received a call from a Liberal Party contact who told her the boudoir photos had resurfaced.

Ingraham said they asked if she ever “had sex for money. No. I haven’t — but they shouldn’t have to ask and I don’t think they have the right to,” she said. She said she was told to call the communications director, where she “explained myself for the 10th time, and told them all about my mental health.” She was led to believe “everything was fine,” she said.

But the next day, an hour before she was set to meet with Liberal Leader Iain Rankin at the Alderney Market, she received a call telling her that the surfacing of her photos has made the “higher ups” worried.

According to Ingraham, the party sent her a statement for her to post, which she did. But it’s clear that didn’t sit well with her.

“All I want is for the real story to be out there, and for those to know that though my mental (illnesses) have hindered me in the past — they are not responsible for this,” she said.

Rankin had previously told CBC News that Ingraham made the decision to step down, and on Thursday, he insisted that his understanding of the situation was based on her initial statement, when she blamed her departure on her mental health.

“I certainly wasn’t part of any conversation with her, I have yet to meet her,” he said. “I’ve read the statement that she originally put online and then I’ve read the subsequent statement recently and then I’ve reached out again, so respectfully I’d like to have that conversation first.” ...

Rankin’s government has been previously accused of sexism after MLA Margaret Miller resigned in May over alleged “misogynistic” and “atrocious” behaviour by a recent hire in the premier’s office. Former Premier Stephen McNeil was also criticized for employing Kyley Harris, who had pleaded guilty to assaulting his partner, during the last provincial election. Harris eventually stepped down. [PC  candidate Nicole] Mosher, who pointed to Rankin’s two DUI charges from the early 2000s, said Ingraham’s ousting was a double standard.

In a tweet, Claudia Chender, the incumbent NDP candidate for Dartmouth South, said she was disappointed after reading Ingraham’s statement.

“It was good to see a candidate like Robyn put her name forward,” she said. “Sadly her story is not surprising. The misogyny and double standards that exist in politics (and life) are alive and well in Nova Scotia. She deserves better.” ...

New Democrat Leader Gary Burrill said his party is committed to ensuring women and gender-diverse candidates are a central part of politics in the province. “Considering the climate of misogynistic attacks on women candidates, it is incumbent on political parties to stand up for anyone facing attacks to ensure more people from a diversity of backgrounds are able to successfully run for office,” Burrill said in an email Thursday.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8050498/ns-liberals-robyn-ingraham-ousted/

For anyone interested in the debate or election night coverage: 

Live Debate - July 28

Leaders from Nova Scotia's Liberal, NDP and Progressive Conservative parties will come together for a live, commercial-free, 90-minute debate to discuss important issues affecting Nova Scotians on Wednesday, July 28 from 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. 

The debate will be broadcast live on CBC TV and CBC Radio One, and streamed on CBC Gem, CBC Listen, cbc.ca/ns, Facebook and YouTube.

CBC Nova Scotia News hosts Tom Murphy and Amy Smith will moderate the debate with Liberal Leader Iain Rankin, NDP Leader Gary Burrill and Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Houston.

Election Night on CBC - August 17

CBC Nova Scotia brings you election night coverage starting at 8 p.m. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/community/nsvotes-debate-elec...

Low wages, workers' rights, and cost of living as inflation increases are becoming important issues for those at the bottom of the income hierarchy in Nova Scotia. 

As the cost of living continues to rise, low-wage earners in Nova Scotia are wondering what the next provincial government will do to help them survive.

A café employee in the Halifax area, whom Global News has agreed to keep anonymous to avoid compromising his employment, makes $13 an hour, which is five cents above the province’s minimum wage. The worker, who identifies as queer, transgender and disabled, said he’s fortunate to have a partner who makes more money than him and a supportive family network. “I feel like if I didn’t have those supports, I probably would not be particularly comfortable, but I’m lucky to be in the situation that I am,” he said, noting that many people in the LGBTQ2 community do not have the kind of family support that he does. I’m currently comfortable, but I could easily not be if something were to happen in my living situation.” ...

According to Hailie Tattrie, an organizer with Fight for $15 and Fairness Halifax, these precarious environments are common among people who make less than a living wage in Nova Scotia, which the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives estimates to range between $16.18 and $21.80 an hour. Tattrie says she’s fortunate to be making above minimum wage, but through her work, she’s spoken to people fighting to make ends meet on less $12.95 an hour. “So many people I know — people my own age, people who are older — have moved back home during the pandemic. The minimum wage wasn’t high enough before COVID-19, and it sure as heck isn’t high enough now,” she said. ...

Another part of the issue is the precarious nature of minimum wage jobs: paid sick days are few and far between; many don’t provide full-time hours — so the employer can avoid giving workers benefits; and schedules are often inconsistent, which can make getting a second job difficult.

The idea of pulling oneself up by their bootstraps and working hard to get better opportunities is getting further and further away from reality, Tattrie said. “It’s not as simple as, ‘Go get a better job,’” she said, noting that the education required to advance one’s credentials is out of reach for many people. Education is so expensive. Ridiculously so. It takes a lot of time, it takes a lot of money. A lot of folks aren’t privileged enough to be able to go get more schooling. ...

Even with better credentials, earning a higher wage isn’t a guarantee. The café worker who spoke with Global News graduated with a bachelor’s degree in January of last year and hasn’t been able to find a well-paying job — and he’s even seen jobs requiring a degree that pay about the same as what he makes now. ...

So far, Nova Scotia’s New Democratic Party has been campaigning on social issues like a $15 minimum wage, 10 paid sick days and permanent rent control. ...

But with the pandemic itself in the rearview mirror, many of the pre-existing issues exacerbated by COVID-19, such as out-of-control housing prices, remain. “And those problems are going to come back on the agenda with a vengeance in the next couple of years,” Lars Osberg, research associate with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, said. Essential, low-wage workers, in particular, who were once hailed as “heroes” and told flowery platitudes like “we’re all in this together,” are now being left in the dust, he said. ...

Some grocery stores brought in a so-called “hero pay” wage bump in the early days of the pandemic, which they discontinued only a couple of months later, even though COVID-19 cases continued to rise and hopes of a vaccine were still far off. ...

“Those low-wage workers aren’t any less essential now than they were back a year ago, when we were in the first lockdown phase, but they’re not getting paid to the same rate, and they still face the problem of how they buy their own groceries, how they pay their own rent,” Osberg said.

While some critics say a higher minimum wage would lead to layoffs and more unemployment, Osberg said most research suggests that’s not the case. According to a report he wrote in April, research shows there is no clear indication that there are higher unemployment rates in places with higher minimum wages. He added that a higher minimum wage would only have a “really small impact” on the general cost of living, which has already been rising regardless of wages.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8055389/low-wage-election-issue-ns/

A new Mainstreet Research poll from July 22 shows the NDP up 2% to 22%, Liberals up 1% to 42% and PCs down 3% to 30%, Greens constant at 4%, all within the margin of error from the Angus Reid June 9th poll. In the 2017 election the Liberals won 39.5%, the Cons 35.5%, the NDP 21.5%, and the Greens 2.8%, which translated into 27 Liberal seats, 17 Cons, 7 NDP, and no Greens. 

Frankly, I thought the Liberals would be well ahead of their last election numbers given the history of elections during the Covid era tending to produce large victories for the governing party, whether it was Liberal, Con or NDP, and the announcement of the childcare program. But Rankin has faced a few controversies already. 

Among decided and leaning voters only, the Liberal lead grows. Rankin’s party has 42 per cent support with decided and leaning voters. The PCs are at 30 per cent, the NDP at 22 per cent, and the Greens have four. ...

Rankin has faced some controversy during his short tenure as premier. In early July, he publicly disclosed that he was convicted of drunk driving in 2003. He dodged questions about a second charge in 2005, which was later overturned on appeal that same year.

On July 21, then-Liberal candidate Robyn Ingraham said she was forced to step down because of explicit photos she had posted and sold online. Ingraham said the party knew about the photos during the vetting process, but later reversed its decision to let her run. The party presented her with a prewritten letter of resignation, and asked her to blame her withdrawal on mental illness, she said. Rankin has previously said it was Ingraham’s own decision to withdraw.

https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/26/n-s-liberals-hold-strong-lead-ahead-of-p...

Debater wrote:

With those numbers it looks like the Libs have widened the gap with the PC's and may have a better chance at a Majority than they did in 2017.

Although with 3 weeks to go a lot can still happen to reduce Rankin's dreams of a Majority.

Nova Scotia Premier Iain Rankin repeatedly dodged questions from reporters Wednesday about whether he was drunk when he flipped his car and was arrested and charged for impaired driving in 2005.

"As I said Monday, I want to reiterate that I'm very, very sorry for my actions as someone that was very young," he said at a news conference Wednesday. "It's regrettable that I have to relive that experience right now."

Rankin disclosed publicly Monday at a COVID-19 briefing that he was convicted of impaired driving in 2003, when he was 20. He also said he was charged in a second incident in 2005. He said in that case he was found "innocent," although court records note he was initially found guilty but the conviction was later overturned on appeal. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/iain-rankin-impaired-driving-...

It does not give me any cofidence in a leader who was convicted twice of drunk driving including one involving "flipping his vehicle into a ditch in Halifax" , although one was overturned on appeal, when  "In July 2021, Rankin falsely claimed that the court had determined him "innocent" in the 2005 case.[10]"(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iain_Rankin)

People make mistakes, sometimes serious mistakes. However, when you don't admit it when running for office or for Premier and then this month you can't even admit the truth about what happened more than fifteen years later about what you did, why should anyone trust him with power? It also looks hypocritical that when the Liberal Party, and possibly the Premier himself although he says he wasn't involved in the decision, removes Robyn Ingraham as a candidate when she "said she was forced to step down because of explicit photos she had posted and sold online" (https://rabble.ca/babble/atlantic-provinces/nova-scotia-election-2021)

You're not worry about this, Debater, or do only worry about the polls?

Debater wrote:

I think the reason they aren't making a huge impact so far is because in the Age of Trump, most bad behaviour and scandals committed by politicians don't seem to have as much impact on the public as they used to.

That approach has worked out really well when the United States elected Trump. Or as Maya Anjelou said: "when someone shows you who they are (in Rankin's case a repeated liar), believe them the first time."

During the election debate Liberal Premier Iain Rankin came in for heavy criticism for the Liberal government's failure to live up to promise to provide a family doctor for everyone and for saying building 2,500 more long term care beds would be "overbuilding" and " a competition on who can throw the most money at an issue" (maybe he should talk to Liberal PM Trudeau about throwing another $5.2 billion on the Newfoundland Muskrat Falls dam in a $13 billion "bailout of a bailout of  a bailout... to [try] secure Newfoundland’s seven seats in the House of Commons") when the Nova Scotia Liberal government only built a paltry 57 beds in eight years.

Rankin also faced heavy criticism during the debate over forcing a female Liberal candidate to withdraw over racy photos, while Rankin himself was convicted twice of DUI, with one overturned on appeal. At the same time "Rankin’s government has been previously accused of sexism after MLA Margaret Miller resigned in May over alleged “misogynistic” and “atrocious” behaviour by a recent hire in the premier’s office.(https://globalnews.ca/news/8050498/ns-liberals-robyn-ingraham-ousted/)

Early in the 90-minute contest, Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Houston and NDP Leader Gary Burrill criticized the premier for failing to deal with a chronic physician shortage that has left almost 70,000 Nova Scotians without a family doctor. The opposition leaders also said the province's nurses were burning out and quitting, a persistent problem they said had been aggravated by the pandemic.

"People will remember the Liberals promised a doctor for all Nova Scotians," Houston told Rankin, referring to a promise made by Rankin's predecessor, former Liberal premier Stephen McNeil. "They failed on that. They didn't really try." ...

Rankin, who at 38 years old is Canada's youngest premier, took aim at Houston's big-spending pledge, arguing the Tory leader wants to "overbuild" in the long-term care sector by promising 2,500 new beds. ...

Burrill picked up on Rankin's comment: "Did you just use the word, 'overbuild?' Do you not acknowledge that in eight years, the grand total was 57 beds you built?"

Rankin responded that his party's investments in health care and long-term care were sensible. "What we don't need is a competition on who can throw the most money at an issue," the former business manager said.

Later in the debate, sparks flew when Houston called attention to national headlines that appeared earlier this month after a female Liberal candidate alleged party staff had pressured her to drop out of the race because she had previously sold revealing photos of herself online.

Shortly after the election campaign began on July 17, Robyn Ingraham also alleged the party had told her to cite her mental health issues as the reason for her departure, which she did in writing before going public with her version of events. "Your party forced a young lady to lie about the reason that she was resigning as a candidate and forced her to further stigmatize mental health," Houston said. "That's bad. That's a disgrace actually." ...

Burrill interrupted the heated exchange to say that when it comes to politics and gender, Nova Scotians will be taking part in the first provincial election in which a party (the NDP) has fielded a slate of candidates mostly comprised of women and gender-diverse persons.

https://www.halifaxtoday.ca/local-news/ns-liberal-leader-faces-barrage-o...

NDP Leader Gary Burrill has promised that if elected that would introduce several new social supports, including an improved minimum wage of $15, rent control and an improved income assistance program, as well as a look at the role of the RCMP, following the mass shooting incident last year that left 22 dead and their actions during the lobster fishery disputes.  

Nova Scotia NDP Leader Gary Burrill says his party, if elected in the upcoming provincial election, will introduce a number of social supports – but stopped short of promising a universal basic income program.

While the provincial NDP’s federal counterpart has tried to pressure the Trudeau government into implementing a universal basic income program, Burrill said there are other things to work toward on a provincial level.

“We need to look at specific income-related programs to fill the particular holes we see that are the sharpest at the moment,” he said. “So, an improved minimum wage, rent control and an improved income assistance program. These are things that are designed to speak to exactly those holes.”

Burrill also said he was committed to keeping inpatient and ER services in the Cape Breton communities of North Sydney and New Waterford, even though staffing has been a consistent issue in the region. The staffing is a big problem and a big challenge, but you don’t junk the car because it needs a new muffler. You address the problem that you have,” he said.

“With the work of physician assistants, by substituting for some of physicians’ more routine work, you’re able to extend the reach of the physicians we have to serve the medical needs of the population we need to serve,” he said.

Burrill was also pressed on the subject of RCMP contracts. The RCMP has faced criticism over its handling of the spree of shootings and arson that left 22 people dead last year, as well as the lobster fishery disputes in southwestern Nova Scotia and allegations of systemic racism. He said an NDP government would take the recommendations from the Mass Casualty Commission once the results of the public inquiry into the Nova Scotia shooting are available, likely toward the end of 2022.  “We believe that there is a great deal that must be learned, must be examined – with no holds barred and seen with very clear eyes – about every dimension of the terrible events of last year, including the dimension of the role of the RCMP,” he said.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8085656/ns-election-gary-burrill-interview/

New August 2nd Leger poll shows no statistical difference in party percentages as all parties are within 2% of the last two polls by Mainstreet and Angus Reid. Interestingly, the NDP were at 45% among 18-34 year olds, compared to 25% for the Liberals, 16% for the Cons and 12% for the Greens with this age group, which kind of surprised me, considering NDP leader Gary Burrill does not strike me as being the type that typically attracts the youth vote. Perhaps it's his earnest sincerity along with the party's policies. 

Libs 42%

Cons 32%

NDP 20% 

Greens 5%

https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uplo...

Liberal Premier Rankin ran into diability advocates at an announcement and left without answering any questions. "They criticized the government for not following through on the landmark 2013 report, referred to as “The Roadmap,” that called for phasing out institutional facilities and replacing them with small options homes by 2023." NDP leader Gary Burrill commented “All through these eight years, the Liberals have said, ‘yes we are following the roadmap and yes we are going to have small options homes for everybody who needs them. And for all that time they didn’t build the places to do it."

https://globalnews.ca/news/8096361/nova-scotia-election-campaign-aug-8/

A new poll from Narrative Research shows a dramatic rise in NDP support who grew from 19% in their June poll to 27%, with Liberals falling from 52% to 40% and the Cons up from 24% to 31%. Four more recent polls have shown the Liberals at 40% to 42% and Cons between 30 and 33% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nova_Scotia_general_election) but the growth in NDP support has only shown up in the most recent poll other polls showed them between 20% and 22%, namely Narrative Research, suggesting it may due to the election campaign. The other four recent polls showed the NDP between 20% and 22%. Their is also a 35% undecided vote. 

• The race between the Liberals and PCs tightens in terms of decided voter support.
• The gap in preference for premier narrows among the three main party leaders.
• Support varies notably across the province, with NDP performing strongly in Metro.

With the provincial election less than one week away, results suggest that the race has tightened among the three main parties. In terms of decided voter support, the gap between the Liberals and the PCs has narrowed, with support for the Liberals being at its lowest point in the past year. There is an unusually high level of undecided voter intentions (35%) with one week left in the election.

There are notable differences in decided voter support across regions, as well as in terms of age and gender. Across regions, Liberals and NDP are neck-and-neck among decided voters in HRM, ahead of the PCs, while the race is tight between the Liberals and PCs in the rest of mainland. In Cape Breton, the PCs hold the lead, ahead of the Liberals.

Voting intentions also vary by gender and age. Females are most likely to vote for the Liberals, followed by the NDP and then PCs. Meanwhile, males are most likely to vote for the PCs, followed by the Liberals and then NDP.  The Liberals and NDP are tied in terms of decided support among younger residents under the age of 35, with both ahead of the PCs. The middle age segment expresses mixed opinions, with Liberals leading by a small margin, while there is a close race between the Liberals and PCs among older residents aged 55 plus.

“Results indicate that there has been a shift in momentum and voting intentions,” said Margaret Brigley, Narrative Research’s CEO.  “With almost a week left before the election, the question is will that momentum continue?  If so, we could potentially see a change in government. Regardless, we could be looking at a minority government and the question at this point is which party will form that minority government.”

“One important variable that we will be watching is voter turnout. That’s important because each party has different support by age category, and turnout traditionally increases with age. The ground game for each of the parties will determine the outcome of the election. The lower the overall voter turnout, the greater the likelihood of an upset.”

There has been a narrowing in the gap for leadership preference, although Liberal Party leader Iain Rankin continues to be named the preferred choice for Premier. 

In the experience of our company, we have never seen a government NOT re-elected when it enjoys performance satisfaction levels over 50%. The government currently has satisfaction levels at 61%.

https://narrativeresearch.ca/the-election-race-tightens-with-the-pcs-and...

While the NDP and Liberals have featured their federal leaders the PCs have avoided having O'Toole show up because of his low popularity. The failure of the federal Cons to recognize climate change impacts has also hurt their provincial cousins. 

A political scientist says bringing political star power to the Nova Scotia election campaign isn’t equally beneficial to the three main parties.

Cape Breton University’s Tom Urbaniak says for the Nova Scotia NDP and Liberals, recent visits to the province by federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could be a boon for the parties.

But the same can’t be said for Nova Scotia’s Progressive Conservatives, whose leader, Tim Houston, has worked hard to distance his party from the federal Tories.

Houston has said it “wasn’t helpful” when federal party members rejected a resolution recognizing “climate change is real.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/8106380/visits-from-federal-leaders-not-equal...

Below is a look at some of the riding races in Nova Scotia this year:

https://globalnews.ca/news/8100227/ns-election-2021-ridings-to-watch/

The election appears to be closer than when it started. 

As Nova Scotia's month-long election campaign draws to a close, it appears Tuesday's vote could be a lot tighter than initially expected. ...

It was also believed the government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic would be its ace in the hole, and while that may still ultimately hold true it's clear something has happened over the last four weeks. ...

"What happened is a good campaign broke out and the Liberals have been slumping somewhat," said David Johnson, a political scientist at Cape Breton University, in a recent interview. Johnson credited the Progressive Conservatives and party Leader Tim Houston with running an "excellent campaign," adding the New Democrats under Gary Burrill had also put in a strong effort.

But it also didn't help that Liberal Leader Iain Rankin's campaign was thrown off balance during the campaign's first week, when it was revealed that party staff had pressured Liberal candidate Robyn Ingraham to drop out because she had previously sold revealing photos of herself on the website OnlyFans. Ingraham also alleged the party had told her to cite her mental health issues as the reason for leaving, prompting more negative headlines in the campaign's second week.

Rankin managed to stay the course afterwards, preaching an optimistic but more tight-fisted approach to the province's finances and arguing for targeted spending in areas of need such as health care and long-term care as the best way to help the economy emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic. The 38-year-old Rankin also did his best to paint Houston as a right-leaning Conservative, a message Johnson said the party successfully countered over the course of the campaign. ...

The NDP's Burrill, 66, has also run a steady and traditionally progressive campaign, staging daily events where he chats with someone about issues effecting their lives. The party, which had only five seats at the dissolution of the legislature, has aimed much of its efforts to regaining its power base in the greater Halifax and Sydney, N.S. areas by highlighting issues such as health care, affordable housing and rent control.

Margaret Brigley, CEO of Halifax-based polling firm Narrative Research, said indications are that momentum has changed after the Liberals entered the race in a strong position. Brigley said a number of factors could influence the outcome including a summertime vote and the expansion of the number of seats in the legislature from 51 to 55. Another factor, she noted, is the fact that 13 incumbents including 11 veteran Liberals opted not to seek reelection, leaving their ridings wide open. She said the parties' ability to get supporters to the polls will be key in what's expected to be an election with low voter turnout....

The election will feature the return of the so-called protected Acadian ridings of Richmond, Argyle and Clare and the predominantly African-Nova Scotian riding of Preston. Johnson said while the Liberals have tended to do well in those districts in the past, they may well have to take all four on Tuesday. "Maybe an early indication of problems for them is if they are in tight races or are even losing some of those ridings," he said.

https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/nova-scotians-to-vote-tuesday-in-provincial-...