Canadian polls, 2021

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Fri, 2021-07-30 02:46

#52

jerrym

Angus Reid July 27th poll

Libs 33

Cons 30

NDP 21

Bloq 7

Greens 4

By Region

BC NDP 32 Cons 31 Libs 26 Greens 7

Alb. Cons 60 NDP16 Libs 14 Greens 2

Sask Cons 50 NDP 19 Libs 14 Greens 0

Man Cons 39 NDP 30 Libs 28 Greens 0

Ont Libs 39 Cons 30 NDP 21 Greens 5

Que Libs 37 Bloc 28 NDP 14 Cons 14 Greens 3

Atl. Libs 42 Cons 30 NDP 21 Greens 3

The top five issues were

Environment/Climate change 36%

Health Care 33%

Housing Affordability 27%

Economy 24%

The Deficit/Government Spending 23%

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has the highest favourability, with 46 per cent viewing him positively, but only one- third of Canadians believe he would be a good or excellent Prime Minister.

A similar gap exists for current Prime Minister and Liberal party leader Justin Trudeau. Just under two-in-five (37%) are favourable towards him, while three-in-ten think he’s a good candidate for another term on the job.

One-quarter think Conservativeleader Erin O’Toole would be good or excellent in the top role, while slightly fewer view him favourably.

With the expectation of pandemic precautions affecting how voters cast their ballots, there may be an advantage for centre-left parties. Elections Canada has signalled that they will be encouraging Canadians to vote by mail if that is their preference and are working towards increasing the country’s capacity to doso throughout the campaign. Asked about their preferred method of voting, those who say they will support the Liberals or New Democrats are twice as likely as Conservative voters to also say they’d rather vote by mail.

Among their own supporters, 68 per cent each respectively say Erin O’Toole and Justin Trudeauwould make good or excellent Prime Ministers. Jagmeet Singh is at 78 per cent on this measure among his own would-be voters

The Liberals maintain key leads in Ontario and Quebec. British Columbia appears extremely competitive as the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP all garner more than 26 per cent support. Meanwhile, the CPC stronghold in Alberta and Saskatchewan holds firm

Voters under the age of 55 are much more likely to heap praise on Singh personally, while alsogiving him the edge as a potential “good” or “excellent” PM over Justin Trudeau or Erin O’Toole

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/2021.07.29_federal_lead...

Fri, 2021-07-30 13:36

#53

kropotkin1951

Interesting numbers for the Conservatives outside of the Alt/Sask Reform heartland. They are fairly consistent except for Quebec, however with a new leader from Quebec they could become a player in future elections because from one end of the country to the other we have a certain percentage of people who are conservative in their views and will never vote for progressive candidates let alone eco-socialists. Country wide that is about a third of the vote.

BC 31%, Man 39%, Ont 30%, Atl 30% and Quebec 14% tied with the NDP in third place.

Fri, 2021-07-30 14:53

(Reply to #53) #54

melovesproles

Pondering wrote:

Social Conservatives aren't going anywhere.

Which is why they can whine about not having their issues front and centre but any displeasure at O'Toole will not cost the party any seats. He'll be in trouble in a leadership review if he doesn't make gains though. The Liberals would love to see every election fought on social issues but that doesn't mean they'll get their wish if the electorate and media are focused on other things.

Pondering wrote:

A backlash election will come. It won't be this election

I've heard all this before. No one ever thinks it's coming until it does. All the 'experts' were saying Trudeau was going to cruise to a majority last election. Same with Paul Martin until the election was called. Campaign narratives often have their own momentum.

It would be fantastic if addressing global warming was the most important issue for the public as the poll above suggests and at some point one would think that would happen. But it hasn't yet in any election in any country in the world that I know of and I doubt this election will be any different. It also doesn't help that none of the parties is able to own the issue: the Liberals are obviously not credible if one looks at real actions and results, the NDP doesn't have a great record when in government provincially, the Greens are more interested in defeating their own candidates.

I think a lot is going to depend on the general mood of the electorate and how grumpy they are on voting day, and that is going to depend on Covid numbers and the state of the economy. I worry because I think there is a real possibility for a surly electorate and only the Conservatives stand to gain from that right now apart from maybe the Bloc in Quebec. I hope I'm wrong but I've seen FPTP reward these kinds of collective mood swings and it doesn't require convincing the majority of anything, just some vote-splitting and some unlucky breaks.

Fri, 2021-07-30 16:26

(Reply to #54) #55

Debater

melovesproles wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Social Conservatives aren't going anywhere.

Which is why they can whine about not having their issues front and centre but any displeasure at O'Toole will not cost the party any seats. He'll be in trouble in a leadership review if he doesn't make gains though. The Liberals would love to see every election fought on social issues but that doesn't mean they'll get their wish if the electorate and media are focused on other things.

Pondering wrote:

A backlash election will come. It won't be this election

I've heard all this before. No one ever thinks it's coming until it does. All the 'experts' were saying Trudeau was going to cruise to a majority last election. Same with Paul Martin until the election was called. Campaign narratives often have their own momentum.

It would be fantastic if addressing global warming was the most important issue for the public as the poll above suggests and at some point one would think that would happen. But it hasn't yet in any election in any country in the world that I know of and I doubt this election will be any different. It also doesn't help that none of the parties is able to own the issue: the Liberals are obviously not credible if one looks at real actions and results, the NDP doesn't have a great record when in government provincially, the Greens are more interested in defeating their own candidates.

I think a lot is going to depend on the general mood of the electorate and how grumpy they are on voting day, and that is going to depend on Covid numbers and the state of the economy. I worry because I think there is a real possibility for a surly electorate and only the Conservatives stand to gain from that right now apart from maybe the Bloc in Quebec. I hope I'm wrong but I've seen FPTP reward these kinds of collective mood swings and it doesn't require convincing the majority of anything, just some vote-splitting and some unlucky breaks.

Once the Sponsorship Scandal happened, Paul Martin was no longer expected to win a Majority in the 2004 Election.

And going into the 2019 Election with the SNC-Lavalin scandal, Justin Trudeau wasn't necessarily expected to win a Majority.

Minority outcomes for Martin and Trudeau in 2004 & 2019 were the expected outcome by most analysts once those scandals hit.

Fri, 2021-07-30 17:32

(Reply to #55) #56

melovesproles

Debater wrote:

Once the Sponsorship Scandal happened, Paul Martin was no longer expected to win a Majority in the 2004 Election.

That's not what the polls were saying before the campaign started. The Liberals were still hitting 40% in April and May. They came down dramatically during the campaign and then rebounded a bit, the more people had to consider Stephen Harper as PM.

Debater wrote:

And going into the 2019 Election with the SNC-Lavalin scandal, Justin Trudeau wasn't necessarily expected to win a Majority.

Minority outcomes for Martin and Trudeau in 2004 & 2019 were the expected outcome by most analysts once those scandals hit.

Those are two contradictory statements. 'Not necessarily expected to win a majority' and 'an expected Trudeau Minority government outcome' are not the same prediction. The fact is the Liberals numbers came down significantly after the election was called.

And I think the situation now is not dissimilar. The Liberal numbers were looking very bullish not that long ago but the closer we get to an election, the shakier they appear.

Fri, 2021-07-30 22:11

#57

Pondering

David Coletto concludes that the Conservatives have a path to victory, if they achieve the impossible.

https://abacusdata.ca/conservative-party-canada-gap/

Implication: The party needs to find a way to appeal to younger voters. Fights over abortion and a perception the party doesn’t care about climate change won’t help. In fact, in our most recent survey, the Conservatives are polling 4th, behind the Greens among those under 30 and have been trending down for three straight months.

Implication: Under Stephen Harper’s leadership the party was able to appeal to some racialized Canadians. It needs to figure out how to do it again, especially since Canada’s population will continue to become more diverse over time and the key ridings around Toronto and Vancouver are the most diverse in the country.

Implication: The party cannot be seen as anti-immigrant. Being inclusive and open to diversity is key to grow but there are some in the base who want to see fewer immigrants admitted to Canada.

Implication: Conservatives need to be seen as serious about climate change. Past research we’ve done showed that few thought Andrew Scheer took the issue seriously. Erin O’Toole can’t fall into the same trap. The problem is much of his base doesn’t put climate change anywhere near the top of its priorities.

It isn't that O'Toole, or any other leader, can't keep the base and get new voters. It's that they can't get rid of the base and the base has power that doesn't exist in the Liberal or NDP parties. The base funds specific MPs that are more beholden to Campaign for Life than they are to the Conservative Party.

Harper blew his love affair with immigrants. The plan was to appeal to them through social conservatism. It worked a little, then came the barbaric practices snitch line. Liberals are boosting immigration and family reunification while the Conservative base thinks immigration is too high.

Speak of the devil, the Liberals baited the Conservatives again....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/erin-o-toole-conservative-f...

Federal Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole says he would leave it up to the New Brunswick government to decide how to provide and fund abortion services if he becomes prime minister.

During a stop in Fredericton on Friday, O'Toole said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's repeated promises to force the province to pay for the service at Clinic 554 amount to politicizing the issue "for his own political gain and to divide Canadians."

He said in an interview it's "fundamental" that the federal government ensure there's access to abortion but "how the provinces run their health care systems is not what the federal government should be interfering with."

Reminding Canadians that Conservatives don't really support access to abortion and want to leave health care to the provinces.

Sat, 2021-07-31 01:16

#58

jerrym

Several observations from the Angus Reid July 27th poll (post #52) as an election looms.

Paul's travails obviously are hurting the Greens popularity.

Singh's having the highest popularity at 46% and the fact that he matches Trudeau at one third believing Singh to be a good or excellent PM to Trudeau's 3 out of 10 thinking he's a good candidate for another term probably helps pull the NDP's numbers up and places Singh in good position for growth if he performs well during the campaign.

The low numbers for O'Toole put him at risk of doing poorly unless he dramatically improves with the public.

Pierre Poilievre's new internet (see Open the Gates tweet at the url below) ad looks a lot like a leadership type ad with a subtext that Trudeau is not doing the right thing, and O'Toole isn't doing a good job of attacking him. The problem for Poilievre is that a pro pipeline pro fossil fuel campaign may be even out of favour in the next election, if we have a couple of more heat wave - wildfires summers before he can run for PM. His attack dog style allows him to be strong in political battle but turns off some people. On the other hand, his combination of a Franco-Albertan background and being a Ottawa riding MP might help him become the next Con leader with an ability to unite the different conservative strains. His demotion from finance critic by O'Toole strongly suggests there is no love lost between them.

Pierre Poilievre ad https://twitter.com/pierrepoilievre?lang=en

Sat, 2021-07-31 17:30

#59

josh

Yes, discovering insulin and building an oil pipeline are equivalent. Except for a brief human rights detour, the ad is strictly culture war/Thatcherite nonsense. Poilievre is another Bernier, and just as dangerous

Sun, 2021-08-01 19:30

(Reply to #59) #60

Debater

jerrym wrote:

Several observations from the Angus Reid July 27th poll (post #52) as an election looms.

Paul's travails obviously are hurting the Greens popularity.

Singh's having the highest popularity at 46% and the fact that he matches Trudeau at one third believing Singh to be a good or excellent PM to Trudeau's 3 out of 10 thinking he's a good candidate for another term probably helps pull the NDP's numbers up and places Singh in good position for growth if he performs well during the campaign.

The low numbers for O'Toole put him at risk of doing poorly unless he dramatically improves with the public.

Pierre Poilievre's new internet (see Open the Gates tweet at the url below) ad looks a lot like a leadership type ad with a subtext that Trudeau is not doing the right thing, and O'Toole isn't doing a good job of attacking him. The problem for Poilievre is that a pro pipeline pro fossil fuel campaign may be even out of favour in the next election, if we have a couple of more heat wave - wildfires summers before he can run for PM. His attack dog style allows him to be strong in political battle but turns off some people. On the other hand, his combination of a Franco-Albertan background and being a Ottawa riding MP might help him become the next Con leader with an ability to unite the different conservative strains. His demotion from finance critic by O'Toole strongly suggests there is no love lost between them.

Pierre Poilievre ad https://twitter.com/pierrepoilievre?lang=en

You may be right that there are tensions between Poilievre and O'Toole. Poilievre comes across as very smarmy and unlikeable, and O'Toole may want him in a less public role. If Poilievre ever runs for the CPC leadership again, he may need to improve his likeability factor if he wants to be succcessful with mainstream voters.

As for Angus Reid, it's important to keep in mind that it usually underestimates Liberal numbers, so the NDP/Singh numbers should be looked at in that light.

Mon, 2021-08-02 20:01

#61

Debater

Abacus data on Accessible Voter Pools shows that the Liberals, NDP & BQ have expanded their voter pools over the past 2 years, whereas the Conservatives & Greens have seen theirs shrink:

Mon, 2021-08-02 21:36

#62

melovesproles

Not great news for the Liberals since it's hard to see a path to a majority where they don't make gains at the expense of the Bloc and NDP.

Tue, 2021-08-03 00:28

#63

Debater

I've been predicting a Liberal Minority as the most likely outcome for some months now.

But there is some good news for the Liberals -- their numbers are better than at this point 2 years ago going into the 2019 Election. And that gives them the potential to take some votes from the Conservatives. (And possibly the NDP & the BQ depending on how the seats break down.)

Tue, 2021-08-03 05:18

#64

nicky

In the last election the Conservatives actually polled about 1.5% more than the Liberals but won significantly fewer seats.

This was a reversal of the historic pattern of a rural based electoral map favouring the Cons who also wasted few votes in many inner city constituencies where they ran a poor third.

It is ironic that the electoral map saved JUSTIN where it almost did in his father in '72 and defeated him in '79 despite winning a popular vote plurality each time.

The main reason for the 2019 anomaly was huge wasted conservative majorities in Alberta and Saskatchewan where they won every seat but one.

It seems to me that today's polls show sharp Conservative declines in Alberta and to a lesser extent in Saskatchewan. Most other provinces look similar to 2019.

I wonder if we might be getting a result that closely mirrors 2019 in seats but with the Liberals regaining the lead in the popular vote.

The Conservatives may waste far fewer votes in Alberta and Saskatchewan but only drop a couple seats because of their enormous margins.

Tue, 2021-08-03 10:10

#65

josh

Leger:

LPC 36

CPC 29

NDP 20

Bloc 7

GPC 4

PPC 3

PowerPoint Presentation (netdna-ssl.com)

Wed, 2021-08-04 21:33

(Reply to #65) #66

Debater

josh wrote:

Leger:

LPC 36

CPC 29

NDP 20

Bloc 7

GPC 4

PPC 3

PowerPoint Presentation (netdna-ssl.com)

Liberals up 2 and NDP down 2 from the last Leger poll, but it could just be noise.

Libs ahead of BQ in QC, but not leading the Cons by as much as expected in Ontario, possibly because the NDP is polling well in ON. Good numbers for Libs & NDP in BC, but Greens must be unhappy to be in single digits.

Thu, 2021-08-05 21:55

#67

Debater

Abacus

August 5, 2021

Liberals ahead by 12 as election speculation heats up

Liberals (37%)

Conservatives (25%)

NDP (20%)

BQ (8%)

Greens (6%)

https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-lead-by-12/

Fri, 2021-08-06 13:35

#68

Pondering

After today's news I sadly predict a Liberal majority.

Fri, 2021-08-06 19:28

#69

jerrym

Angus Reid poll August 3rd

LPC 35

CPC 30

NDP 19

Bloc 7

GPC 3

More Key Findings:

38 per cent of Canadians view Prime Minister Trudeau favourably – unchanged from the previous week. Over half (58%) view him unfavourably (see detailed tables)

The top five federal priorities for Canadians are climate change (35%), health care (33%), COVID-19 (31%), the deficit (25%) and housing affordability (26%)

Which of these leaders is best suited to deal with each of the following issues? (All respondents, n=1,605) The NDP leads on the enviroment, the Liberals lead on Covid measures, the Cons lead on the economy and the NDP and Liberals are tied on health care (see graph at url below)

Who’s best on top issues?

One key aspect of a potential federal election campaign for the Liberal Party will be its pandemic management. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, alongside top doctor Theresa Tam and Health Minister Patty Hajdu, have been the national face of the response over the past year and a half. Asked which federal party leader is best suited to deal with COVID-19, Trudeau is the clear preference. Trudeau doubles his closest contender on this file – Erin O’Toole (34% to 16%).

That’s the good news for Justin Trudeau. The bad news is that this is the only file among ten canvassed on which the prime minister leads. On health care, Trudeau is in a deadlock with NDP leader Jagmeet Singh as to who is best. Singh holds a small advantage on climate change – though notably, he is tied with “none of them” as best to lead on this file:

O’Toole best on economic issues

While his favourability ratings remain low overall, Erin O’Toole has emerged as the top choice among Canadians for handling energy and economic issues – traditionally a Conservative Party strength, and notably, as detailed above, a top concern amongst the party’s likely supporters.

One-in-three Canadians (32%) believe that the CPC leader is best suited to managing the national deficit and government spending. For his part, Erin O’Toole has promised that the Conservative Party wouldbalance the budget over the next decade. This will be an immense challenge as the nation’s projected debt ballooned to record levels this year.

O’Toole has made the economy a central part of his pre-campaign pitch — including proposing significant fiscal reforms aimed at ending the “mistreatment of Western Canadians.”

Singh preferred on social governance

Each of the three main federal party leaders evidently has his strengths and weaknesses. For NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, he is seen as the best equipped to tackle a range of socio-economic issues.

When it comes to housing affordability, a top concern in key ridings in British Columbia and Ontario, over a quarter (27%) of Canadians think Jagmeet Singh would do the best job.

Singh also emerges as a clear favourite on questions of income inequality and poverty. One-in-three Canadians (34%) tap the leader of the NDP as the top person for the job, fully 20 percentage points above either Erin O’Toole or Justin Trudeau.

While details on exactly how the NDP might approach these issues remain scarce, they have promised to bring in an excess profit tax on large corporations and to use this money to support small businesses.

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/2021.08.05_fed_politics...

Fri, 2021-08-06 23:00

#70

Pondering

The notion that the Conservatives are best at handling the economy is frustratingly entrenched as an obvious truth when they are terrible at it. How do we prove it?

Fri, 2021-08-06 23:43

(Reply to #70) #71

Debater

Pondering wrote:

After today's news I sadly predict a Liberal majority.

Which news are you referring to?

The Abacus poll is good for the Liberals, but it may be too generous. Although I notice that the pro-Conservative Angus Reid is showing higher numbers for the Liberals than usual.

But it's too soon to predict the election outcome.

Sat, 2021-08-07 00:37

(Reply to #71) #72

Pondering

Debater wrote:

Pondering wrote:

After today's news I sadly predict a Liberal majority.

Which news are you referring to?

The Abacus poll is good for the Liberals, but it may be too generous. Although I notice that the pro-Conservative Angus Reid is showing higher numbers for the Liberals than usual.

But it's too soon to predict the election outcome.

Daycare deals are being signed with the provinces. 6 billion to Quebec no strings. That is six provinces with deals now. It was obvious he would offer a big carrot. I know this has been going on for a few weeks now but by the time election day rolls around the premier of any province that doesn't cut a deal will wear the blame.

I don't take current polls as predictions because the swing voters tune in late, review what's on offer, and choose accordingly.

O'Toole is all doom and gloom and culture war and western alienation yada yada yada. Singh will be attacking Trudeau for not keeping promises, indigenous issues, homelessness, unmet needs in general, but well-liked though he is it won't beat Trudeau's appeal.

Trudeau has been well trained to ignore questions he doesn't like and stay on message. I think that ultimately people are going to vote for reassuance that everything will be fine, stability, and daycare.

Sat, 2021-08-07 03:16

(Reply to #72) #73

jerrym

Pondering wrote:

Debater wrote:

Pondering wrote:

After today's news I sadly predict a Liberal majority.

Which news are you referring to?

The Abacus poll is good for the Liberals, but it may be too generous. Although I notice that the pro-Conservative Angus Reid is showing higher numbers for the Liberals than usual.

But it's too soon to predict the election outcome.

Daycare deals are being signed with the provinces. 6 billion to Quebec no strings. That is six provinces with deals now. It was obvious he would offer a big carrot. I know this has been going on for a few weeks now but by the time election day rolls around the premier of any province that doesn't cut a deal will wear the blame.

Trudeau has been well trained to ignore questions he doesn't like and stay on message. I think that ultimately people are going to vote for reassuance that everything will be fine, stability, and daycare.

The Trudeau Liberals are likely to win based on having vaccinated a large percentage of the population, the daycare deals and other election goodies, but there is one warning sign in the Angus Reid poll for Trudeau, namely "38 per cent of Canadians view Prime Minister Trudeau favourably – unchanged from the previous week. Over half (58%) view him unfavourably" (https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/2021.08.05_fed_politics...) People have won elections with high unfavourability ratings when everything is going right for them. Even if Reid's poll is off somewhat in this regard though, it does reflect a problem for Trudeau, that if things don't go well during the campaign he won't be able to count on personal favourability to save himself. The more likely scenario is that unless there are major problems that last in the media, those unfavourables when divided between four other parties will not mortally wound him when Covid and his goodies are working in for him.

Sat, 2021-08-07 08:24

#74

nicky

Another soft spot for the Liberals is the souring of the public on Justin.

Most polls show his approval rating at about 40% positive and 60% negative.

But only 10% "strongly approve" and 30% more weakly approve whereas 40% "strongly disapprove"

This suggests an ambivalence amongst Liberal supporters that may erode party support.

Pollsters often tell us that leadership ratings are a leading indicator of party support. The voters sour on a leader first while still indicating support for his party. Then the party support moves in the same direction.

This also happens in reverse where a leader (like Jagmeet) runs ahead of his party. So let's hope...

Sat, 2021-08-07 11:27

#75

Pondering

It's definitely better to have higher favorability ratings but someone can vote for Trudeau even though they think more highly of Singh. It happens a lot. Nevertheless the high ratings for Singh are encouraging.

Sat, 2021-08-07 17:40

#76

kropotkin1951

I love how democracy works to solve the peoples real problems. All our political parties are now geared up to have an unnecessary election to see whether Trudeau can win dictatorial powers beyond the dreams of most tyrants. Meanwhile Canadians are not phased by the Central Canadian Liberals building a pipeline with taxpayer money through unceded land, while arresting indigenous protestors, to ship the filthiest carbon on the planet to Gulf of Mexico refineries. Did I mention that most of my province is already in flames.

The polls say Central Canada will anoint him again on the promise of daycare. Fuck that is such a good promise I think I have heard it from the Liberals in every election since the '90's. The Liberal Red Book has always been the same as Lucy's football and we will see how us Charlie Brown's do this time, when we take a kick at another Liberal majority.

Sat, 2021-08-07 19:07

#77

jerrym

I deliberately used the words "the daycare deals and other election goodies" as a facetious reference to Liberal promises since 1993. After all, its not just childcare that the Liberals have been throwing out promises of since 1993. There's also pharmacare, greenhouse gas emission reductions, and wait for it, rapid rail, which even second tier economy countries are already building. Of course, under Trudeau they have also failed to keep their promise of ending boil water advisories as well.

Sat, 2021-08-07 19:55

(Reply to #77) #78

Pondering

jerrym wrote:

I deliberately used the words "the daycare deals and other election goodies" as a facetious reference to Liberal promises since 1993. After all, its not just childcare that the Liberals have been throwing out promises of since 1993. There's also pharmacare, greenhouse gas emission reductions, and wait for it, rapid rail, which even second tier economy countries are already building. Of course, under Trudeau they have also failed to keep their promise of ending boil water advisories as well.

And they work every time. In this case they have signed deals. They didn't end all the boil water advisories but they ended a lot and are using Covid as an excuse for not finishing up yet.

Indigenous Services Canada has said that 97 boil-water advisories have been lifted since 2016, while 59 remain in place in 41 communities. The department also said that “at least” 22 existing drinking water advisories will remain in effect past the deadline of March 21.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7497223/indigenous-services-minister-says-tru...

That is going to be billed as a success story they need more time to finish.

Sat, 2021-08-07 20:02

(Reply to #78) #79

Debater

nicky wrote:

Another soft spot for the Liberals is the souring of the public on Justin.

Most polls show his approval rating at about 40% positive and 60% negative.

But only 10% "strongly approve" and 30% more weakly approve whereas 40% "strongly disapprove"

This suggests an ambivalence amongst Liberal supporters that may erode party support.

Pollsters often tell us that leadership ratings are a leading indicator of party support. The voters sour on a leader first while still indicating support for his party. Then the party support moves in the same direction.

This also happens in reverse where a leader (like Jagmeet) runs ahead of his party. So let's hope...

The Angus Reid disapproval numbers for Trudeau are usually worse than other pollsters given the Conservative lean in most AR polls.

But I do think that Trudeau & the Liberals could lose some ground with Canadians who are not in the mood for an election right now and who have concerns about having an election while COVID is still a big health concern.

Sat, 2021-08-07 20:47

(Reply to #79) #80

melovesproles

Debater wrote:

But I do think that Trudeau & the Liberals could lose some ground with Canadians who are not in the mood for an election right now and who have concerns about having an election while COVID is still a big health concern.

I agree. The Covid numbers on election day are going to be the wild card. If they are surging again, I could see the electorate being in an angry mood. There is also a Conservative narrative on the economy that I am hearing more and more just out and about and not just from the usual rightwing cranks, grumbling about: labour shortages, rising deficits, inflation etc., the kind of stuff Conservatives often make hay with.

All elections are gambles but I do think there are a lot of risks for the Liberals with this one, especially for Trudeau if he fails again to get a majority and his personal unfavourability numbers are brought up by his rivals in the party post-election. I have a few friendly wagers that we won't be seeing a Liberal majority this election. I think this election could get ugly very easily. Liberal support is softer than people think and the path to a majority isn't there unless the Bloc falls apart.

Sun, 2021-08-08 12:39

(Reply to #80) #81

jerrym

Pondering wrote:

jerrym wrote:

I deliberately used the words "the daycare deals and other election goodies" as a facetious reference to Liberal promises since 1993. After all, its not just childcare that the Liberals have been throwing out promises of since 1993. There's also pharmacare, greenhouse gas emission reductions, and wait for it, rapid rail, which even second tier economy countries are already building. Of course, under Trudeau they have also failed to keep their promise of ending boil water advisories as well.

And they work every time. In this case they have signed deals. They didn't end all the boil water advisories but they ended a lot and are using Covid as an excuse for not finishing up yet.

Indigenous Services Canada has said that 97 boil-water advisories have been lifted since 2016, while 59 remain in place in 41 communities. The department also said that “at least” 22 existing drinking water advisories will remain in effect past the deadline of March 21.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7497223/indigenous-services-minister-says-tru...

That is going to be billed as a success story they need more time to finish.

Their "success" story, as so often is the case with the Liberals, is not what they portray it to be when you actually look at the numbers, according to indigenous leader Pam Palmater, but the Liberals are very good at that, which goes a long way in explaining why they get re-elected. Meanwhile Trans Mountain costs and helping the fossil fuel industry continues to zoom in costs: "This cost is in addition to the $4.4 billion purchase price of the existing Trans Mountain pipeline, as well as a $600 million reserve recommended to cover potential contingencies, bringing the total cost to over $17 billion." https://www.wcel.org/media-release/skyrocketing-cost-trans-mountain-plac...) Of course the Trudeau Liberals proclaimed there was a national climate emergency the day before they bought the pipeline " that would triple the amount of crude oil that moves from the Alberta tar sands to the Pacific Coast for shipment around the world" that the company no longer wanted to build, once again displaying their two-faced nature. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/on-monday-canada-declared-a-climate...).

The auditor general ... noted that they have not amended their policy in relation to funding for the operations and maintenance of water systems on reserve for over 30 years.

This means that the funding they do provide to First Nations to maintain their water systems does not take into account new technologies, the actual costs to maintain or the risk level and actual condition of the water system. On top of that, they only provide up to 80 per cent of the costs determined by this outdated policy, while at the same time paying First Nation water operators 30 per cent less than the rest of Canada.

And let's not forget the numbers here. In addition to the 60 long-term water advisories that are left to be resolved -- half of those have been in place for more than a decade.

It's important to dig into the numbers to truly understand the full scope of this problem. The AG's report was limited to only the 1,050 "public water systems" in 600-plus First Nations. This is because Indigenous Services' water policies and funding formulas do not provide support for those who rely on wells or cisterns. Worse than that, their water policies do not support for those without any running water! ...

It's also important to look at how Indigenous Services has differentiated between short-term and long-term water advisories. The government seems to be congratulating itself for having "only" 60 long-term water advisories left; meanwhile over the same period, the AG confirmed that there were 1,281 short-term advisories.

https://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/indigenous-nationhood/2021/03/canada-st...

Sun, 2021-08-08 18:36

#82

Pondering

The only success that matters to the Liberals is winning elections. They are successful. It's just a matter of degree.

People know the faults of the Liberals. They know about WE. They know about Election reform not happening. They know all the boil water advisories have not be lifted. They know the Liberals bought TM and are corporate friendly.

They still see the Liberals as the best of the bunch and as long as everyone, including the NDP it seems, thinks the Conservatives are the best money managers, and the Liberals are kinder Conservatives, the Liberals will win.

Mulcair fed into the myth with his promise of balanced budgets as if that matters. As long as that is the be all and end all of fiscal responsibility the left loses. We need to redefine what it means to be fiscally responsible.

Sun, 2021-08-08 21:25

#83

jerrym

Quote:

The only success that matters to the Liberals is winning elections. They are successful. It's just a matter of degree.

You seem rather complacent, even kind of saying a Liberal victory is okay. There are other things that matter. The price of buying the Liberal doublespeak on the future, along with those of virtually all other governments around the world, will be breaking through the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, possibly within the Trudeau Liberals next term in office (as early as 2025 according to the graph below), according to a new UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report that is to be released tomorrow. The report also notes "that things will get much worse if governments do not take drastic action, say climate researchers interviewed by Nature. ... About one-third of the roughly 40 models that have run climate-sensitivity tests predict more than 4.5 °C of warming if CO2 levels double".

The United Nations is poised to release the most confident and comprehensive assessment yet of global warming, including detailed estimates of how continued greenhouse-gas emissions will increase Earth’s sea levels and drive extreme weather in the coming years. ...

Concentrations of these gases have risen by around 50% since pre-industrial times, and the planet has warmed by more than 1 °C (see ‘Warmer worlds’). By some estimates, the world is on track for nearly 3 °C of warming unless governments do more to curb these emissions. ...

“This report will make it absolutely clear what is the state of the science, and throw the ball back in the camp of the governments for action,” says Corinne Le Quéré, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, UK. ...

Despite advances in understanding and computing power, estimates of climate sensitivity have been stuck at around 1.5–4.5 °C since the 1970s. Recent efforts to narrow that range have significantly boosted scientists’ trust in projections of how quickly the world might warm in the coming decades.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02150-0

Sun, 2021-08-08 22:08

(Reply to #83) #84

Pondering

jerrym wrote:

Quote:

The only success that matters to the Liberals is winning elections. They are successful. It's just a matter of degree.

You seem rather complacent, even kind of saying a Liberal victory is okay. There are other things that matter. The price of buying the Liberal doublespeak on the future, along with those of virtually all other governments around the world, will be breaking thro

ugh the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, possibly within the Trudeau Liberals next term in office (as early as 2025 according to the graph below), according to a new UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report that is to be released tomorrow.https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02150-0

I am not at all complacent. Just the opposite. We need to change the way we communicate because we are losing and the right is winning. Beating the same ol drum and expecting a different outcome is the definition of insanity, or something to that effect.

Which elections did the Liberals keep their promises for? And yet somehow they are still in office. Not only across the world but in our own country we have had devastating heat waves and fires. Farmers are selling off cattle they can't feed due to drought.

Doesn't look like it is leading to a Green or NDP win to me.

To me it is you who are complacent thinking all you have to do is tell people what is happening and they will change their votes. People know what is happening. They aren't changing their votes.

Tue, 2021-08-10 14:10

(Reply to #84) #85

jerrym

Pondering wrote:

jerrym wrote:

Quote:

The only success that matters to the Liberals is winning elections. They are successful. It's just a matter of degree.

You seem rather complacent, even kind of saying a Liberal victory is okay. There are other things that matter. The price of buying the Liberal doublespeak on the future, along with those of virtually all other governments around the world, will be breaking thro

ugh the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, possibly within the Trudeau Liberals next term in office (as early as 2025 according to the graph below), according to a new UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report that is to be released tomorrow.https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02150-0

I am not at all complacent. Just the opposite. We need to change the way we communicate because we are losing and the right is winning. Beating the same ol drum and expecting a different outcome is the definition of insanity, or something to that effect.

Which elections did the Liberals keep their promises for? And yet somehow they are still in office. Not only across the world but in our own country we have had devastating heat waves and fires. Farmers are selling off cattle they can't feed due to drought.

Doesn't look like it is leading to a Green or NDP win to me.

To me it is you who are complacent thinking all you have to do is tell people what is happening and they will change their votes. People know what is happening. They aren't changing their votes.

No I'm not complacent. UN Secretary General Antonio Gutierrez's comment on the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report that was released today was "This report must sound the death knell for coal and fossil fuels before they destroy our planet." (https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/08/latest-ipcc-report-c...)

On Power and Politics today, with the release of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, host Katie Simpson asked federal Liberal Minister of the Environment and Climate Change Jonathan Wilkson "How can you be moving ahead with that project (Trans Mountain) when twinning the pipeline will increase oil production from 300,000 barrels a day to 900,000 barrels a day?

Wilkinson's response: "We are moving through a transition in which we are extracting the full value of our resources. ... Right now we ship enormous amounts by rail. What we are saying is its got to be part of the transition."

Wilkinson's answers show the Trudeau Liberals have absolutely zero intention of ending Trans Mountain's tripling of oil transmission project or doing anything right now to meet the global warming crisis that the latest IPCC reports must be dealt with immediately (see last post for report details).

However, arguing between you and me isn't going to change the story, so I will leave it at that.

Tue, 2021-08-10 04:01

#86

Pondering

I would be relieved if enough Canadians come to their senses to prevent the Liberals from getting a majority. I would be happier if the NDP could be the official opposition. An NDP win just doesn't seem to be in the cards yet.

For the not too far future I hope that the NDP can take Alberta away from the Conservatives.

I just don't think the report will have the impact that you seem to think it will. Maybe that is cynicism on my part. I just think the awakening is still a few disasters away, 5 to 10 years. At least I hope it is within that time frame.

Thu, 2021-08-12 19:56

#87

Debater

ABACUS

Most Canadians won’t be upset if early election called; Liberals lead by 9 over Conservatives

August 12, 2021

* Conservatives have lost ground to the Liberals among voters over 45 (likely pandemic related) and lost ground while the NDP gained among people below that age (progressive agenda, climate).

*Compared to 2019, leader popularity is up for the @liberal_party and @NDP and lower for the @CPC_HQ and @CanadianGreens

Liberal (37%)

Conservative (28%)

NDP (20%)

BQ (5%)

Green (5%)

https://abacusdata.ca/election-2021-liberals-lead-by-9/

Sat, 2021-08-14 03:24

#88

NorthReport

Uh-oh. Trouble in Debater's right-wing paradise:

NDP at 21% while Liberals have dropped 6%.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-new-election-poll-shows...

Sat, 2021-08-14 08:43

#89

Pondering

Just an excuse for an article. The actual numbers....

The poll shows the Conservatives with 28.4-per-cent support of Canadians, up 4.8 percentage points from four weeks ago, and the NDP holding steady at 20.7 per cent. The Nanos survey of 1,000 Canadians is based on a four-week rolling average. The random poll, using land and cellphone lines, is considered accurate to within three percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

I had no idea the Conservatives had dropped to 23.6. I would have been dancing in the streets. A rise of 4.8 is a correction not a surge in support for the Conservatives.

The Liberals have "only" 33.4 %. Basically nothing has changed in months. Numbers are giving the Liberals a 98% chance of winning the election and a 50/50 chance of getting a majority.

We are going to get countless speculation articles based on minor meaningless fluctuations in the polls.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/08/12/nearly-two-thirds-of...

According to the Mainstreet poll, which Maggi described as a “snapshot” in time, Trudeau’s Liberals currently hold the largest share of support, at 35 per cent. The Conservatives, led by Erin O’Toole, follow at 26 per cent, and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP is in third nationally at 16 per cent. Both the Bloc Quebecois and the Green Party enjoy five per cent support. Six per cent said they’d vote for another party, and 12 per cent were undecided.

The window remains open for the NDP to hold the Liberals to a minority. It will come down Canadians deciding if they want a majority to ensure no more elections for four years, or if they want the NDP to hold the balance of power to force the Liberals to compromise. My bet is they will go for stability.

Sat, 2021-08-14 19:58

#90

Debater

New poll from Leger shows the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives by only 5 points nationally, but leading the BQ in Quebec by 12 points. Interesting that it could be Quebec which helps the Liberals in this election.

https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Rapport-politique-federale-14-aout-2021.pdf

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2021/08/14/sondage-elections-risquees-pour-les-liberaux

Sun, 2021-08-15 23:16

#91

jerrym

More details from Nanos Research poll August 13th

Liberal (33.4%)

Conservative (28.4%)

NDP (20.7%)

BQ (6.9%)

Green (7.9%)

“The latest Nanos tracking that was just completed on Thursday night, suggests that there has been a significant recoil effect against the Liberals. This hot speculation about an election has shifted voters from the Liberal column to the Conservative column, probably because they are upset about the fact that there is an election,” said Nanos Research's Nik Nanos in an interview with CTV News on Friday.

The survey indicates that Liberal ballot support has dropped by 5.9 per cent from where it was four weeks ago.

The Conservatives appear to have made up some ground in that time, with 28.4 per cent ballot support, up 4.8 per cent from where they were four weeks ago.

“We're in a horse race now. It's no longer about whether the Liberals will win, and if they'll win a majority government. Now it's who will win this election?” Nanos said.

The support for the other four major parties has not shifted as considerably in the last month. The NDP have 20.7 per cent ballot support, the Greens have 7.9 per cent ballot support, the Bloc Quebecois has 6.3 per cent ballot support, and the People’s Party has 1.9 per cent of ballot support.

Nanos said that if this election becomes about Trudeau’s decision to call an early election in order to win a majority—which has widely been suggested a key motivating factor for the Liberals to trigger an election now—“it’ll be bad news for the Liberals.”

Polls conducted over the summer from various public opinion outlets signalled that the Liberals could be within reach of a majority government if a vote was held soon. Though, folks have expressed little enthusiasm to go to the polls, with the COVID-19 case counts once again on an upward trajectory.

Nanos said that had Trudeau called the election a bit earlier, they could have entered the campaign in a more secure electoral standing.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/recoil-effect-new-nanos-polling-shows-li...

Sun, 2021-08-15 23:51

#92

Pondering

It's not a horse race.

The Conservatives appear to have made up some ground in that time, with 28.4 per cent ballot support, up 4.8 per cent from where they were four weeks ago.

So four weeks ago the Conservatives were at 23.6 and now they are at 28.4.

Now, while the Liberals are still leading in the polls, with 33.4 per cent ballot support, should the election call come this weekend.

This is supposedly down 5.9 points, which would mean they had 39.3 percent support.

The current layout is:

Liberals 33.4

Conservatives 28.4

NDP 20.7

That's not a horse race.

Brace yourself for pundits saying all kinds of nonsense trying to build interest for an election that is not likely to result in any great change.

The survey I saw asked Canadians how important they thought having an election was. The response was unimporant. That doesn't mean people are angry about it in significant numbers. Most of the time people would rather not have elections.

Trudeau does have a valid reason to hold the election. He did not get a mandate for the massive spending he has done or intends to do.

For most people an election is not that big a deal. It isn't that time consuming to check the options and vote.

Mon, 2021-08-16 00:18

(Reply to #92) #93

melovesproles

Pondering wrote:

Trudeau does have a valid reason to hold the election. He did not get a mandate for the massive spending he has done or intends to do.

The mandate is whether the majority of the elected representatives support the spending or not. They are held accountable by the electorate in their ridings. Not that long ago you claimed you wanted MPs to be more empowered, now you are claiming Justin has singlehandedly done all the spending 'he has done and intends to do.' A bit of cognitive dissonance, no?

Mon, 2021-08-16 00:32

#94

NorthReport

Forum are up to their usual nonsense showing the Cons in the lead in their poll out today

And if Forum are bullshitting, how many other pollsters are doing so as well?

If you wanted to manipulate the voters what better way to do so that to come across as an unbiased research company just surveying the voting public?

Mon, 2021-08-16 00:53

#95

NorthReport

https://twitter.com/mazz0289/status/1427122139044491271?s=20

Mon, 2021-08-16 01:52

(Reply to #95) #96

Pondering

melovesproles wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Trudeau does have a valid reason to hold the election. He did not get a mandate for the massive spending he has done or intends to do.

The mandate is whether the majority of the elected representatives support the spending or not. They are held accountable by the electorate in their ridings. Not that long ago you claimed you wanted MPs to be more empowered, now you are claiming Justin has singlehandedly done all the spending 'he has done and intends to do.' A bit of cognitive dissonance, no?

No, the majority of MPs vote the way their party tells them to vote. They are seat warmers. I wish they were not but that is what most of them are. The point of the election is so voters can hold their MPs/the Liberal party to account.

I think most Canadians see Trudeau as a bit of an ass. When elected in 2019 Trudeau promised deficits in the 10 billion dollar range not hundreds of billions. If Trudeau did not want to have an election he would use the excuse of the pandemic. But, he does want an election, so he will use the excuse that he needs a mandate to spend the billions he intends to spend.

I think mail in voting is going to expand enormously and I don't think Canadians are going to find it an ordeal to vote.

I want to be wrong. I hope that the Conservatives doing so poorly will result in more people feeling comfortable to vote NDP. It would be great if Trudeau lost seats to the NDP.

I don't think that I am wrong. I think voters are going to go for the stability of a majority government that will be in place for four years. Even if they don't like the fact that he is calling an election so soon, they won't want the posibility of another one 2 years down the line. They will want the proposed Liberal programs to go forward.

I'm fine with PR now. I wouldn't agitate for it but I'm not against it either. I don't think it represents the people any better than they are now.

I would prefer a system in which MPs were not afflilated with any political party. The Prime Minister would have to win the support of parliament and parliament would be answerable to the people alone.

Mon, 2021-08-16 07:35

(Reply to #96) #97

Badriya

Pondering, you keep repeating on various threads that Trudeau "did not get a mandate for the massive spending he has done or intends to do. " That is just not true. He got a mandate when the Speech from the Throne passed, in October 2020, with NDP support.

https://www.canada.ca/en/privy-council/campaigns/speech-throne/2020/spee...

Mon, 2021-08-16 12:25

(Reply to #97) #98

Pondering

Badriya wrote:

Pondering, you keep repeating on various threads that Trudeau "did not get a mandate for the massive spending he has done or intends to do. " That is just not true. He got a mandate when the Speech from the Throne passed, in October 2020, with NDP support.

https://www.canada.ca/en/privy-council/campaigns/speech-throne/2020/spee...

If parliament decided to declare extreme austerity, cut all federal spending by 10%, we should have to wait another two years before we can pass judgement? I bet he could do it with Conservative support.

If his numbers were down Trudeau would not be holding an election now. If he calculated that he would be better off waiting it out the full four years he would but it is not at all unusual for minority governments to end after 2 years. Nobody is going to be outraged that we are having an election.

If the NDP thought they would double their seats they would be clamouring for an election. The NDP would be saying the Liberals didn't have a mandate for whatever.

Everyone already knows that the Liberals are calling an election at the time most advantageous to them, and that the Conservatives and NDP would do the exact same thing. So when Singh points fingers we can see that he is just playing politics. His words are empty. They don't inform me. He's just another politician wasting my time. No reason to trust him more than the others.

The only reason the NDP doesn't want an election right now is because they don't see themselves gaining power and it will drain the coffers. It has nothing to do with the best interests of Canadians.

If people like what Trudeau is offering better than what the other parties are offering they will vote for Trudeau. It's the first day in the actual campaigns and campaigns do matter.

O'Toole's campaign is off to a disastrous start with this ad https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Q8BROYNYkY&ab_channel=NoobyProductions%...

I predict the Liberals will take seats from the Conservatives.

The Liberals are handing out goodies like there is no tomorrow. I predict that will play well.

The NDP, I don't know. Good arguments that they influenced government for the better and Conservatives are not a threat. The Greens imploding.

If the Liberals are held to a minority it will be entirely due to the NDP. Singh is not the bozo Mulcair was when it comes to reading a room so it could happen. For me the NDP is really the least predictable factor. I don't think Singh will run a flawless campaign but he could. I think Canadians will be in the mood for stability and that Trudeau will promise enough to get people to the polls but I haven't done a survey. I just think that in uncertain times people will gravitate towards having a guaranteed government for the next 4 years.

Even if it happens it isn't necessarily bad news for the NDP. 4 years from now will be a change election. Trudeau will be really long in the tooth. There is no indication that the Conservatives are going to reverse their slide. The NDP will have had 4 years to repair the coffers and regroup.

I'm guessing that if they get a 4 year mandate the Liberals will change leaders before the next election to try to appear like a new party.

My logic in all of this could be totally wrong. I'm not a mind-reader or fortune teller.

Mon, 2021-08-16 14:03

#99

kropotkin1951

The Liberal's are Canada's equivalent of P.T. Barnum. "Never give a sucker an even break." If I remember he ran on the slogan never again an unfair election. With PR the odds of getting a majority government are very minuscule and now he is feeding the same suckers that voted for him then the line that a government that is not a majority is inherently unworkable. The bizarre thing is that if you actually look at Canada's governance system a PM with a majority has less checks and balances on his unfettered power than in any of the one party states we vilify so much.

The NDP needs to take a couple of P.T.'s other sayings to heart; "No one ever made a difference by being like everyone else" and as we saw a few times at the Olympics, "If you hesitate, some bolder hand will stretch out before you and get the prize."

Mon, 2021-08-16 15:16

#100

JKR

Does anyone have a breakdown of how many ridings are Liberal - Conservative races, Liberal - NDP races, NDP - Conservative races; Liberal - BQ races, 3 way races, etc,?

Mon, 2021-08-16 15:22

#101

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Liberals,save a major fuck up, will win the election aomewhat easily. Erin The Toole is a weaker leader than Andrew Scheer. 4 more years.

Canadian polls, 2021

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