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2021 forecasts, election results, coalition government?

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Fri, 2021-09-03 16:55

#1

NorthReport

2021 forecasts, election results, coalition government?

Progressives are, and usually have been, screwed by Canada's First Past the Post electoral system. Trudeau is even threatening another election within 18 months if he does not get his majority, the one and only reason we are presently having an election right in the middle of our forest fire season, our withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the 4th wave of the Covid19 pandemic.

When the voting is all said and done, and the ballots counted, and there is no majority government result, and the NDP is in a position to join with another party to create a majority government, if progressives are ever going have some sway in Parliament Jagmeet Singh needs to insist on a 4-year Coalition Government with, the NDP Cabinet Positions based on thie seat count. Progressives are never ever going to get any power in Ottawa unless they forcefully demand it, right after the election is over.

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2019

All-time low share of popular vote is enough for Liberals to win power

It marks only the second time in Canada’s history that a governing party will take power with such a low share of the vote

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2019/canadian-federal-el...

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Seven Ways that the Canadian Electoral system is UNFAIR

A Brief Submitted to the Special Committee on Electoral Reform by Stephen McCulloch I am not a whiner. I know very well that life is not fair. But, our electoral system, which should fairly represent our interests, is out of balance. And there are viable alternatives.

https://www.ourcommons.ca/content/Committee/421/ERRE/Brief/BR8550163/br-...

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Trudeau Tumbles Further Behind Conservative ‘Freight Train’

Sep 3 2021 — Bloomberg

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s odds of retaining power in Canada are slipping as his Liberal Party falls further behind in the polls ahead of a snap election. The main opposition Conservatives under Leader Erin O’Toole have climbed to nearly 36% support in the latest Nanos Research Group survey. The Liberals are trailing at 31% and […]

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Bricker’s Campaign Week: NDP on the move, Liberals stuck in the mud

Sep 3 2021 — Darrell Bricker — Global News

What sticks out in the polling so far is how personal this election has become. What was supposed to be a referendum on the Trudeau Government’s management of the pandemic and the way forward has become a referendum on the character of Justin Trudeau. The focus on character goes back to the election’s timing and […]

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Climate crisis cannot be separated from extreme wealth inequality

https://rabble.ca/news/2021/08/climate-crisis-cannot-be-separated-extrem...

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Canada on course for worst wave of COVID-19 yet, new modelling data shows

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/canada-on-course-for-worst-wav...

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Trudeau and O'Toole play defence during first French TV debate

Nobody bites on idea of a coalition government

Moderator Bruneau seemed particularly aggrieved by the early election, and tried to propose a way to prevent another precipitous election call should this election not award a majority to any party.

He pushed the idea of a coalition government, which would be able to keep power for a full four-year mandate.

Trudeau dismissed that idea out of hand, saying we had no tradition of coalitions in Canada.

Other leaders were more circumspect, emphasizing they would work to make Parliament work, whatever the outcome of the vote.

Blanchet categorically said his party would not take part in a coalition. It would, as is its wont, continue to supporting measures that were good for Quebec and oppose those that weren't.

The moderator, as have other journalists, pushed the NDP's Singh on potential collaboration with the Tories. But, as he has done previously, Singh said he was running to be prime minister, full stop.

Oddly, Trudeau was the only leader to say he did not think another Parliament in which no party had a majority would last. He speculated that in such a case there would be another election within 18 months. It was a petulant statement, and it might come back to bite Trudeau on the backside.

Trudeau was on firmer ground on vaccine mandates, which he supports for federal workers and federally regulated industries, but which both O'Toole and Blanchet (and Green leader Annamie Paul, who was not invited to this debate ) oppose.

The Liberal leader continues trying to make obligatory vaccination a wedge issue, as such Liberal sages as former senior Chrétien adviser Peter Donolo have advised. So far, it does not seem to getting much traction.

https://rabble.ca/news/2021/09/trudeau-and-otoole-play-defence-during-fi...

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The ballot box question is looking more and more likely to be: Are you happy that an election was called at the beginning of the Covid19 pandemic's 4th wave in Canada?

Fri, 2021-09-03 20:04

#2

NorthReport

Surging Conservatives now poised to win more seats than Liberals, poll analysis says

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal-election/2021/09/01/surging-con...

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Houston, Liberals have a problem!

CPC - 143 seats

Libs - 130 seats

NDP - 38 seats

BQ - 27 seats

Fri, 2021-09-03 23:32

#3

JKR

I don't see the Conservatives cooperating with the NDP, much less entering into a coalition with the NDP. The Conservatives path to power, if they are limited to a minority, will require them getting cooperation from one of or both the BQ and Liberals. The NDP having leverage in the next Parliament will require that they and the Liberals combined have over 170 seats. I don't see the Libersls entertaining a coalition either. FPTP makes coalitions unattractive.

Sat, 2021-09-04 02:55

#4

melovesproles

NorthReport wrote:

Oddly, Trudeau was the only leader to say he did not think another Parliament in which no party had a majority would last. He speculated that in such a case there would be another election within 18 months. It was a petulant statement, and it might come back to bite Trudeau on the backside.

It is incredible how blatantly antidemocratic the Liberals are being. They have managed to make O'Toole look like a good alternative to Canadians and they have only themselves to blame. No one is going to vote for them because they can't work with the other parties. They claim to want a stable government and then go out of their way to prove they are the biggest obstacle to that stablility unless people that don't want to vote for them change their politics. Do they really think that is not going to turn Canadians off?

Sat, 2021-09-04 07:08

#5

nicky

It would be difficult for many NDP supporters to see the party supporting a minority Con government.

But I think Jagmeet needs to keep this open as an object to wring the most concessions he can from the Liberals.

if somehow he does support O'Toole it should be on condition that he immediately brings in a number of specific reforms and that he keeps certain of his loonies out of cabinet.

Sat, 2021-09-04 11:06

#6

Webgear

I would hope that all the parties cooperate after the election, I would like to see the country take a centralist approach on most issues.

I don’t get the whole left/right divide sometimes, and I think it distracts us too much form improving the country.

Sat, 2021-09-04 13:03

(Reply to #6) #7

JKR

nicky wrote:

if somehow he does support O'Toole it should be on condition that he immediately brings in a number of specific reforms and that he keeps certain of his loonies out of cabinet.

What "specific reforms" could the NDP require from the Conservatives that the Conservatives would be open to agreeing to?

Sat, 2021-09-04 13:02

(Reply to #7) #8

JKR

Webgear wrote:

I would hope that all the parties cooperate after the election, I would like to see the country take a centralist approach on most issues.

I don’t get the whole left/right divide sometimes, and I think it distracts us too much form improving the country.

How is a "centrist approach" different than a federal Liberal Party approach?

Sat, 2021-09-04 13:40

#9

NorthReport

Canadians since federation have bot the Liberal kool-aid that they are progressive. Not too long ago the Liberals were just about out for the count and in desperation went and got their Liberal savour who apart from being accused himself, is running a male candidate who has been accused by 4 different women of sexual abuse. And how many other women were sexually abused that have not spoken up? Progressive my ass!
A NDP participating coalition government could put a stop to things like this.

Sun, 2021-09-05 00:59

melovesproles

Quote:

Trudeau dismissed that idea out of hand, saying we had no tradition of coalitions in Canada.

It is hilarious that a party that calls itself Liberal is appealing to "tradition" as to why we can't have more a more representative democracy. That doesn't even make sense in the context of their own political tradition. Why don't they just call themselves the OCP: 'The Other Conservative Party?'

Tue, 2021-09-07 22:02

Rikardo

The Bloc could do well in a coalition with the Conservatives that would give a majority. They could support them in a deal to give Quebec more autonomy like one income tax form (Quebecois) refused by Trudeau. The Bloc could support most of O'Toole's plans.

Wed, 2021-09-08 04:37

JKR

If the Conservatives and BQ cumulatively have more than 170 seats, the Conservatives will be in position to form a minority government. I don't see any possibility though that the Conservatives will even contemplate forming a coalition with a separatist party. The Conservatives know that their longer term interests would likely be damaged if they formed a coalition or even formally cooperated with the BQ. This example shows how FPTP creates political dynamics that oppose the establishment of coalitions. That's why we have had so many minority governments and so few coalition governments.

Wed, 2021-09-08 11:38

NorthReport

Canada needs a couple more right-wing political parties, right-wing being defined as actually right-wing, or lying about being progressive, and actually delivering the right-wing goods.

The Top 2 parties ain’t what they used to be

https://rosedeer.blog/2021/08/26/the-top-2-parties-aint-what-they-used-t...

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Drawing the line on a majority government

https://rosedeer.blog/2021/08/22/drawing-the-line-on-a-majority-government/

Wed, 2021-09-08 17:07

(Reply to #13) #14

Ken Burch

JKR wrote:

If the Conservatives and BQ cumulatively have more than 170 seats, the Conservatives will be in position to form a minority government. I don't see any possibility though that the Conservatives will even contemplate forming a coalition with a separatist party. The Conservatives know that their longer term interests would likely be damaged if they formed a coalition or even formally cooperated with the BQ. This example shows how FPTP creates political dynamics that oppose the establishment of coalitions. That's why we have had so many minority governments and so few coalition governments.

Yet they cooperated with the Bloc to bring down the Liberal government in 2006- and, as all the Liberal apologists seem to forget, they had enough votes between them to defeat Martin in the House even if the NDP had voted with him, which proves that it was always bogus to blame the NDP- whatever else can be said about it- for that election or for Harper's victory in that election, which was already a certainty no matter when the election would have been held.

Fri, 2021-09-10 18:59

(Reply to #14) #15

Ken Burch

(self-delete. dupe post.)

Wed, 2021-09-08 18:38

NorthReport

If folks don't think that the Conservatives would ally with the BQ, if that is what they required to form government, they must be smoking some good weed.

The NDP's decision, to keep their powder dry about who they will support, until after all the votes are counted, and the seat count is determined, is good strategy. And, after the seat count is determined, and if the NDP has enough seats to form a government, with both the CPC or the Liberals, and the BQ does not, the NDP should play them off against each other, and see who will offer the best deal to the NDP and their supporters. And if such a situation does occur, a minimum requirement for the NDP should be a signed Coalition Government agreement for 4 years. Let the negotiations begin!

Fri, 2021-09-10 12:40

NorthReport

Welcome to Canada's political future: minority governments and even possibly coalition governments

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/federal-election-2021/vote-splitt...

Sun, 2021-09-12 00:36

JKR

Eric Grenier’s CBC News Poll Tracker; September 11, 2021

LIB: 152 seats
CON: 126 seats
NDP: 33 seats
BQ: 26 seats
Green: 1 seat
PPC: 0
Other: 0

Sun, 2021-09-12 08:20

NorthReport

So if those results were to hold

Party / 2015 / 2019 / 2021

Libs / 177 / 157 / 152

Cons / 95 / 121 / 126

NDP / 39 / 24 / 33

BQ / 10 / 32 / 26

G / 2 / 3 / 1

What a colossal waste of time, energy and money for what

Sun, 2021-09-12 10:39

(Reply to #19) #20

KarlL

Had my math wrong, so now deleted.

Sun, 2021-09-12 11:35

(Reply to #20) #21

KarlL

NorthReport wrote:
So if those results were to hold Party / 2015 / 2019 / 2021 Libs / 177 / 157 / 152 Cons / 95 / 121 / 126 NDP / 39 / 24 / 33 BQ / 10 / 32 / 26 G / 2 / 3 / 1 What a colossal waste of time, energy and money for what

Largely true NR - but it will be hard for opposition parties to pull the plug any time soon, given all the commentary about the unneccessary election, so it probably extends the life of the Liberal minority government over what it might otherwise have been. Not the result they had in mind of course.

Sun, 2021-09-12 11:57

(Reply to #21) #22

KarlL

NorthReport wrote:
So if those results were to hold Party / 2015 / 2019 / 2021 Libs / 177 / 157 / 152 Cons / 95 / 121 / 126 NDP / 39 / 24 / 33 BQ / 10 / 32 / 26 G / 2 / 3 / 1 What a colossal waste of time, energy and money for what

Most recent Polltracker updated at 11;45am is LIB 154/CPC 120/NDP 35/BQ 28/GRN 1

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Sun, 2021-09-12 15:57

JKR

Can polls be anywhere near accurate regarding the final election result since so many people are voting over a longer time period by mail this election?

Thu, 2021-09-16 18:59

NorthReport

My hunch is that there will be a Liberal majority.

Sun, 2021-09-12 19:07

Ken Burch

Pretty sure that's everyone's hunch.

The big wild-card factor in the last week is if the NDP's current support levels hold up, or if we once again see a last, paranoid swing from them to the Liberals just to "Keep the Conservatives out".

Sun, 2021-09-12 19:53

(Reply to #25) #26

Left Turn

Left Turn's picture

JKR wrote:

If the Conservatives and BQ cumulatively have more than 170 seats, the Conservatives will be in position to form a minority government. I don't see any possibility though that the Conservatives will even contemplate forming a coalition with a separatist party. The Conservatives know that their longer term interests would likely be damaged if they formed a coalition or even formally cooperated with the BQ. This example shows how FPTP creates political dynamics that oppose the establishment of coalitions. That's why we have had so many minority governments and so few coalition governments.

Wrong. In such a scenario, if the Liberals and NDP also have more than 170 seats, Trudeau would get to try to govern with the NDP. Because Trudeau remains as PM until he either resigns the position or is defeated on a confidence motion. Only then would O'Toole get a crack at governing.

Sun, 2021-09-12 20:06

(Reply to #26) #27

Left Turn

Left Turn's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

Pretty sure that's everyone's hunch.

The big wild-card factor in the last week is if the NDP's current support levels hold up, or if we once again see a last, paranoid swing from them to the Liberals just to "Keep the Conservatives out".

The other big factor will be to what extent the PPC's "surge" in the last week at the expense of the Conservatives holds up. If it holds, the Conservatives could lose a whack of tight Lib-Con races in Ontario. If PPC support collapses in Ontario, the Conservatives could clean up at the expense of the Liberals.

Sun, 2021-09-12 20:16

(Reply to #27) #28

melovesproles

Left Turn wrote:

JKR wrote:

If the Conservatives and BQ cumulatively have more than 170 seats, the Conservatives will be in position to form a minority government. I don't see any possibility though that the Conservatives will even contemplate forming a coalition with a separatist party. The Conservatives know that their longer term interests would likely be damaged if they formed a coalition or even formally cooperated with the BQ. This example shows how FPTP creates political dynamics that oppose the establishment of coalitions. That's why we have had so many minority governments and so few coalition governments.

Wrong. In such a scenario, if the Liberals and NDP also have more than 170 seats, Trudeau would get to try to govern with the NDP. Because Trudeau remains as PM until he either resigns the position or is defeated on a confidence motion. Only then would O'Toole get a crack at governing.

That's not possible. If Cons + BQ have 170 seats then Libs + NDP won't have 170.

Sun, 2021-09-12 20:17

(Reply to #28) #29

JKR

Left Turn wrote:

JKR wrote:

If the Conservatives and BQ cumulatively have more than 170 seats, the Conservatives will be in position to form a minority government. I don't see any possibility though that the Conservatives will even contemplate forming a coalition with a separatist party. The Conservatives know that their longer term interests would likely be damaged if they formed a coalition or even formally cooperated with the BQ. This example shows how FPTP creates political dynamics that oppose the establishment of coalitions. That's why we have had so many minority governments and so few coalition governments.

Wrong. In such a scenario, if the Liberals and NDP also have more than 170 seats, Trudeau would get to try to govern with the NDP. Because Trudeau remains as PM until he either resigns the position or is defeated on a confidence motion. Only then would O'Toole get a crack at governing.

If the Cons and BQ together have more than 170 seats it's mathematically impossible for the NDP and Liberals together to also have over 170 seats.

Sun, 2021-09-12 20:50

(Reply to #29) #30

KarlL

NorthReport wrote:
My hunch is there will be a Liberal majority

That would be very hard to pull-off without major growth in Quebec. The Liberals will not sweep Atlantic Canada as they did in 2015. Their growth potential is limited to the number of fingers of one hand on the Prairies and I see no signs of pickups in 519. BC can swing a few seats perhaps but the NDP is doing pretty well there and there is a limit to Liberal potential on the Lower Mainland. A whole lot would have to go right for the Liberals to win a majority. Minority is far more likely in my view.

Sun, 2021-09-12 20:59

(Reply to #30) #31

Michael Moriarity

KarlL wrote:

NorthReport wrote:
My hunch is there will be a Liberal majority

That would be very hard to pull-off without major growth in Quebec. The Liberals will not sweep Atlantic Canada as they did in 2015. Their growth potential is limited to the number of fingers of one hand on the Prairies and I see no signs of pickups in 519. BC can swing a few seats perhaps but the NDP is doing pretty well there and there is a limit to Liberal potential on the Lower Mainland. A whole lot would have to go right for the Liberals to win a majority. Minority is far more likely in my view.

I have a terrible record as a prognosticator, but fwiw I agree with this analysis.

Sun, 2021-09-12 20:59

(Reply to #31) #32

melovesproles

Left Turn wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

Pretty sure that's everyone's hunch.

The big wild-card factor in the last week is if the NDP's current support levels hold up, or if we once again see a last, paranoid swing from them to the Liberals just to "Keep the Conservatives out".

The other big factor will be to what extent the PPC's "surge" in the last week at the expense of the Conservatives holds up. If it holds, the Conservatives could lose a whack of tight Lib-Con races in Ontario. If PPC support collapses in Ontario, the Conservatives could clean up at the expense of the Liberals.

I agree that this is the biggest wild card. Anyone have any ideas why the recent surge? Is this a reaction to O'Toole doing the vaccination ads?

Sun, 2021-09-12 21:13

(Reply to #32) #33

KarlL

JKR wrote:

Can polls be anywhere near accurate regarding the final election result since so many people are voting over a longer time period by mail this election?

They can be fairly accurate, as ridings have patterns of voting (which can also be adjusted for rapidly-growing ridings) and those track pretty closely against regional and sub-regional polling numbers, which the seat-predictors build effectively into their models.

The parties (and academic sites like LISPOP at Laurier, which referred to theirs as a "regional swing model") refined this kind of work many years before it went public on Polltracker and 338Canada, as it is pretty critical in making advertising spend decisions, staff allocation and choosing leaders' tour desinations. I was certainly making use of this kind of stuff as far back as 2004.

That said, it is never entirely accurate and of course, lots of closely-contested ridings are won by small numbers. I would expect that 30 to 50 ridings could be won or lost by less than 2% of the vote. That tends to balance out, so you win one you didn't expect and lose another that you did and so on but it doesn't always pan out that way. Directionally though, they are pretty informative, presuming that the underlying polling is accurate and of course, they use a lot of polls from different sources (and in the case of the parties themselves, additional proprietary polling) to minimize the impact of inaccurate and rogue polls.

Mon, 2021-09-13 01:10

melovesproles

It is interesting that the PPC support is as high in Ontario as it is in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. A little lower in BC and lower in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Seems like it's not the West (Coast) or the East (Coast) but the Interior of Canada where the most hard-rightwingers live.

Looking at 338's riding breakdown of CPC/LPC tossups in Ontario there are 18 or so races where the PPC could play spoiler. I think Jerry might have called it earlier in the campaign that O'Toole will try to make an appeal to those voters. This could get still get uglier.

Tue, 2021-09-14 21:26

NorthReport

Hopefully no one ever gets elected from the PPC.

Maxime Bernier's disgraceful election campaign

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-maxime-berniers-disgrace...

Wed, 2021-09-15 12:32

(Reply to #35) #36

jerrym

melovesproles wrote:

It is interesting that the PPC support is as high in Ontario as it is in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. A little lower in BC and lower in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Seems like it's not the West (Coast) or the East (Coast) but the Interior of Canada where the most hard-rightwingers live.

Looking at 338's riding breakdown of CPC/LPC tossups in Ontario there are 18 or so races where the PPC could play spoiler. I think Jerry might have called it earlier in the campaign that O'Toole will try to make an appeal to those voters. This could get still get uglier.

I think that Ford's shutting down small businesses in regions of Ontario , including Toronto, while leaving big box stores open has helped fuel anger amongst small business owners and some of their employees, especially if that has let to the shutdown or placed them on the brink of shutting down of their business or the loss of their jobs, especially when this did not happen in provinces such as BC and the Atlantic region. I think this has fueled PPC growth there. In Ontario, that anger was expressed in the support for the restaurant that refused to shut down in Toronto even when the police arrived to close it. I wonder if this will cost Ford votes in his election next year.

Wed, 2021-09-15 14:01

NorthReport

In the past, there has been some shifts at the last minute, and I hope Singh does not release his foot on the throttle until September 19 at midnite! A large rally is probably out of the question because of Covid19 but in lieu of that, I hope he takes the last 2 days and visits as many ridings that are in play for the NDP as he physically can for that 48n hour final period. As soon as I saw Butts say is is now over except for the get out the vote it was obvious it was just another lyin' Liberal con job. There is indeed Liberal fatigue, and it is their lies that is driving that fatigue more than anything else.

Wed, 2021-09-15 13:56

NorthReport

Here they come - the Trudeau lies of desperation!

In a dogfight for progressive voters, Trudeau says only the Liberals can beat O'Toole

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/dogfight-progressive-voters-trudeau-sin...

Wed, 2021-09-15 14:00

NorthReport

4.1% inflation now in Canada!

A lot of voters, particularily seniors, pay attention to this.

Trudeau’s Rivals See Soaring Inflation as the Lever to Oust Him

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-15/trudeau-s-rivals-see-...

Wed, 2021-09-15 14:12

NorthReport

Federal Election 2021: 27 ridings to watch and why they're important

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2021/federal-election-2...

Wed, 2021-09-15 16:47

(Reply to #40) #41

Ken Burch

NorthReport wrote:

Here they come - the Trudeau lies of desperation!

In a dogfight for progressive voters, Trudeau says only the Liberals can beat O'Toole

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/dogfight-progressive-voters-trudeau-sin...

He was always GOING to say that- and it worked for Daddy in '74, even though nobody had any reason to think Stanfield would be a right-wing extremist.

Wed, 2021-09-15 17:18

NorthReport

But as JKR has stated in the polling thread, it looks like the Bloc might be going to pull the rug out from under the election by allying with the Conservatives to try and form or support an O'Toole government. We had better get as many NDP MPs elected as possible, as we cannot rely on the Liberals for intelligent government, otherwise we would not even be in this mess of an unnecessary election in the first place.

Wed, 2021-09-15 17:13

JKR

Eric Grenier’s CBC News Poll Tracker; September 15, 2021

LIB: 151 seats
CON: 120 seats
NDP: 36 seats
BQ: 30 seats
Green: 1 seat
PPC: 0
Other:

Thu, 2021-09-16 00:26

NorthReport

BC may hold the balance of power

https://www.policymagazine.ca/british-columbia-may-hold-the-balance-of-p...

Thu, 2021-09-16 00:50

NorthReport

https://twitter.com/AshleyBurkeCBC/status/1437983658573381633?s=20

Thu, 2021-09-16 10:29

JKR

Eric Grenier’s CBC News Poll Tracker; September 16, 2021

LIB: 150 seats
CON: 120 seats
NDP: 38 seats
BQ: 29 seats
Green: 1 seat
PPC: 0
Other: 0

Thu, 2021-09-16 10:50

NorthReport

So the NDP appears to be inching up in number of seats whereas the Liberals seem to be inching down in Poll Tracker, but combined they have more than 170 seats

Thu, 2021-09-16 18:09

(Reply to #47) #48

NorthReport

My hunch is increasing that there will be a Liberal majority and it will be a far bigger threat to Canadian democracy than any other possible result.

Thu, 2021-09-16 19:33

(Reply to #48) #49

kropotkin1951

KarlL wrote:

NorthReport wrote:
My hunch is there will be a Liberal majority

That would be very hard to pull-off without major growth in Quebec. The Liberals will not sweep Atlantic Canada as they did in 2015. Their growth potential is limited to the number of fingers of one hand on the Prairies and I see no signs of pickups in 519. BC can swing a few seats perhaps but the NDP is doing pretty well there and there is a limit to Liberal potential on the Lower Mainland. A whole lot would have to go right for the Liberals to win a majority. Minority is far more likely in my view.

I agree with KarlL

Fri, 2021-09-17 00:38

(Reply to #49) #50

Left Turn

Left Turn's picture

melovesproles wrote:

Left Turn wrote:

JKR wrote:

If the Conservatives and BQ cumulatively have more than 170 seats, the Conservatives will be in position to form a minority government. I don't see any possibility though that the Conservatives will even contemplate forming a coalition with a separatist party. The Conservatives know that their longer term interests would likely be damaged if they formed a coalition or even formally cooperated with the BQ. This example shows how FPTP creates political dynamics that oppose the establishment of coalitions. That's why we have had so many minority governments and so few coalition governments.

Wrong. In such a scenario, if the Liberals and NDP also have more than 170 seats, Trudeau would get to try to govern with the NDP. Because Trudeau remains as PM until he either resigns the position or is defeated on a confidence motion. Only then would O'Toole get a crack at governing.

That's not possible. If Cons + BQ have 170 seats then Libs + NDP won't have 170.

Right you are (and melovesproles in the post above yours) that if the Cons + BQ have 170+ seats between then the Libs + NDP cannot also have 170+ seats between them.

Though my more important point still stands. Even in that scenario Justin Trudeau could chose to stay on as PM, present a throne speech, and try to get a majority of MPs to vote for it. I don't know how likely he'd be to succeed, but if Trudeau decides to try O'toole can't pre-empt him from doing so.

Because again Trudeau remains PM until he either resigns or is defeated on a confidence motion. The election results on their own cannot remove a sitting Prime Minister, no matter how much the msm repeatedly pretends that this has happened.

Fri, 2021-09-17 00:56

(Reply to #50) #51

Left Turn

Left Turn's picture

melovesproles wrote:

Left Turn wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

Pretty sure that's everyone's hunch.

The big wild-card factor in the last week is if the NDP's current support levels hold up, or if we once again see a last, paranoid swing from them to the Liberals just to "Keep the Conservatives out".

The other big factor will be to what extent the PPC's "surge" in the last week at the expense of the Conservatives holds up. If it holds, the Conservatives could lose a whack of tight Lib-Con races in Ontario. If PPC support collapses in Ontario, the Conservatives could clean up at the expense of the Liberals.

I agree that this is the biggest wild card. Anyone have any ideas why the recent surge? Is this a reaction to O'Toole doing the vaccination ads?

It certainly would include O'Toole doing vaccination ads, but could also include other aspects of O'Toole's attempt to appear more moderate and distance himself from social conservatives.

Some of the gain in support probably also is because crowds of PPC supporters have picketed Trudeau's campaign events with the anti-vaccine message. As in the PPC rises enough in support that such pickets become possible, and then the pickets themselves convince more anti-vax voters to support the PPC based on them appearing the most passionate on the issue.

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