A post-leadership convention bounce has the Liberals up in the polls, the NDP down, the Conservatives looking to lose power, and the Bloc doing its best to take some media attention away from Stéphane Dion. But however good a week it was for the Liberals, it was only a week, and outstanding issues loom large.
The Liberals like to run from the left and it is not hard to get to the left of Stephen Harper. The Liberal strategy is to polarize public opinion against the government and to offer Stéphane Dion as leader of the best option for defeating it.
This leaves the other opposition parties reflecting on their own strategic options: one, attack the government; two, try and distinguish themselves from the Liberals; or three, build support for their own program.
The Bloc has chosen options one and two. This week they picked the Canadian mission to Afghanistan as the vehicle for sidelining the Liberals in Quebec and confronting the government. Without calling for immediate withdrawal, the Bloc wants to build on the doubts in Quebec about the wisdom of sending soldiers with guns on a humanitarian and peace mission. Look for the Bloc to push Liberals to vote with the government against a resolution condemning the conduct of the Afghanistan mission.
The NDP has been building a pro-environment position for years. Now that the Liberals have donned green t-shirts, scarves and Dion hats — and with the Green Party gaining credibility under new leader Elizabeth May — party ownership of the issue gets harder to prove. Even the Conservatives are trying to change public perception on their environmental stance. If everyone is for the environment, how do you distinguish yourself from the others, regardless of the merits of your position?
The NDP is the anti-war party, but if the issue is getting rid of the Conservatives, foreign policy is not usually a winner for the third party, however important it is to take the right stand.
The NDP needs to become election ready by building on its strengths in urban centres where people see the deterioration of the social fabric. Homelessness and begging are not just accidental occurrences; they emerge from a low wage economy where the social safety net is no guarantee of minimal subsistence. CLC economist Andrew Jackson has shown how precarious employment, stagnant wages and regional differences characterize the jobs market, despite lower unemployment.
Corporate earnings have outpaced salaries. Incomes, including the social wage (pensions, student loans, welfare, employment insurance), and jobs are the top concerns of most Canadians. The NDP must campaign on these economic security and social cohesion issues. Its ability to represent those Canadians who have issues with the way Canada has been governed for decades is how the party will be judged at the polls.
For the NDP caucus, leader Jack Layton, and party supporters across the country, the arrival of Stéphane Dion announces a new challenge. But for the Liberal leader the issue of economic justice presents a challenge as well. The Liberals have governed from the right for long enough that they have limited ability to mount a credible campaign addressing workplace, and pay-cheque issues. Stéphane Dion has no record in economic debate, or in backing working people. It will be revealing to see where he and his party stand when the House of Commons votes on anti-scab legislation.
The NDP pre-campaign should set out the economic and social issues facing most Canadians, and offer solutions. Caucus positions on setting a federal minimum wage at $10 an hour, and denouncing bank charges are a good start. In a likely minority situation, Canadians need to be able to choose something more than tax cuts or debt repayment when they vote.
Harper surprised the Liberals in the last election by campaigning on issues of his choosing. Expect Dion to do the same this time. In debates about ideas and policy alternatives, the NDP has more to draw on than any other party. The best way for the party to mobilize support is to present a clear economic alternative on how a government can act on behalf of regular people.
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