The population west of Ontario now exceeds the population east of Ontario, according to new 2011 census data. This was what made headlines when Canadian population growth of 5.9 per cent from 2006 to 2011 (upwards of one per cent per year) was announced recently by Statistics Canada. It led commentators to forecast a continued shift in political power west.

Conservative legislation (prepared before the release of 2006-11 population data) enlarges the House of Commons by adding 15 seats in Ontario, six each in Alberta and B.C., and three in Quebec. But the impact of demographic changes on Canadian electoral politics can be easily overstated. What is more important are the shifts in economic power that underlie the changes in population.

The driving force in population relocation is economic opportunity. Alberta and Saskatchewan grew through arrivals from elsewhere in Canada, and newcomers from abroad. Sustained by high commodity prices for oil and potash, the two Prairie provinces attracted workers. Migrants had to balance low unemployment rates against steep housing costs, but many made the costly decision to relocate (increased reliance on temporary foreign workers is not covered by the census data).

At 5.7 per cent overall, the population of Ontario has grown slightly more slowly than the rest of the country over the past five years. This is new. Economic reversals associated with past recessions of 1981-82 and 1990-92 returned in force in 2007, so people were less likely to come to Ontario for work. Where once Ontario took 60 per cent of new arrivals from abroad, it attracted only 40 per cent in the last five years.

Unfortunately the current trend is for new immigrants to experience high levels of poverty. A recent study of poverty in Toronto found that (in the earlier census period of 2000-05) the number of working poor increased by 42 per cent, and that immigrants accounted for three-quarters of the working poor.

As usual Quebec stands apart from the other provinces. On average its population increased 1.2 percentage points less than elsewhere in Canada. Quebec has outward migration, not a net influx of Canadians from other provinces, therefore immigrants account for the increase in population not due to births.

The Canadian political reality will not be affected by increases to the House of Commons, even less by the recent census. Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia remain the three largest provinces. Together they account for 207 seats — 67 per cent — of the 308 seats in the current House of Commons. In the new 338-seat House, the three largest provinces would have 231 seats, or 68 per cent.

A party seeking to form a stable majority government would be best served with good support in each province. The current Conservative government relies on Ontario (73 seats) and B.C. (21 seats) to keep it out of minority territory (it has a majority of 10). In the 2011 election, it lost half of its Quebec seats, and now holds five. Since then, it has preferred to punish Quebec for deserting the fold, rather than try and re-establish itself in that vote-rich province (75 seats, to be 78).

Without a base in Quebec, the Harper Conservatives do not have a stable majority, unless they can retain their substantial hold on Ontario. Should the Ontario economy remain stagnant, with poverty on the increase, a number of the 73 Conservative seats will be in play. In the election expected (under fixed date rules) for October 2015, the weakened Ontario economy revealed by the census could prove the undoing of Stephen Harper.

Huge foreign investments in bitumen production capacity in Alberta have led to the migrant population boom revealed in the census. The temporary blocking of the Keystone XL pipeline extension to the U.S. Gulf Coast has focused attention on two B.C. pipeline projects, designed to serve Asian and American markets.

The existing Kinder Morgan pipeline which runs through Burnaby (part of Greater Vancouver) is to be twinned, so as to accommodate raw bitumen for export by super-tankers through the port of Vancouver.

A new Northern Gateway twin pipeline is to be built East from Kitimat on the Pacific Coast through the Great Bear Rainforest (across unceded Aboriginal territory) to Bruderheim Alberta. It would run condensate (liquid natural gas) imported from Australia to Alberta, mix it with raw bitumen, and send it back to Kitimat for export to China.

These two projects could prove the undoing of the Conservatives in B.C. where they hold 21 of 36 seats.

If popular opposition proves a significant force in B.C. politics, it would likely benefit the NDP (who currently hold 12 seats). The current federal NDP leadership race has candidates from across the country focusing attention on the pipeline issues in the province.

The five-year census data shows how population movement results from world commodity prices stimulating economic activity. Population changes linked to an increasingly unbalanced economy create problems for the Conservative government. Adding seats to parliament is not going to improve party fortunes outside Alberta. Stephen Harper needs an economic upturn to help him keep his slim majority.

Duncan Cameron is the president of rabble.ca and writes a weekly column on politics and current affairs.

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