Are you wondering who’s winning the Manitoba election?

That makes two of us.

Despite living in Winnipeg, working in the local media and even canvassing door-to-door for NDP candidates, I can’t call next Tuesday’s vote.

Manitoba NDP leader Greg Selinger has run a good, gaffe-free campaign emphasizing the government’s key accomplishments — low unemployment, strong public services and a decent economy. Selinger turned in a solid performance at the televised leaders’ debate and even master-minded Harper-style attack ads, accusing the opposition Conservatives of a hidden agenda to privatize public utilities.

Meanwhile, the Tories have also run a safe, error-free campaign with ads that steal traditional NDP messaging. On his billboards and bus ads, PC leader Hugh McFadyen promises “more doctors and nurses,” “stronger communities” and “safer schools.” Most voters would probably agree that Selinger and McFadyen’s platforms look almost identical.

Two weeks ago, I told friends that the NDP had its fourth straight majority in the bag. I went canvassing under warm, sunny skies and people seemed genuinely positive about the future of the province.

With seven days to go until E-day, the upbeat mood continues. But suddenly, more and more voters are avoiding eye contact with me. They’re saying they’re undecided. The most common phrase I hear on the doorstep is, “I haven’t made up my mind yet.” Considering the NDP has held power for 12 years, that sounds a lot like, “It’s time for a change.”

Four years ago, when the Saskatchewan NDP ran for re-election under a similarly strong economy, voters still turfed them in favour of new faces. I’m starting to wonder if that might happen in Manitoba, too. When times are good, people are often willing to take a chance — especially when the Conservatives’ message is so moderate.

But don’t just take my word for it. The first poll of the election, released today, suggests the NDP enjoys a strong lead. The biggest poll of the campaign, courtesy of the Winnipeg Free Press, appears in Saturday morning’s paper.

Consider this, though: The Tories are getting aggressive in ridings they haven’t held in years and the NDP is sending workers into areas they didn’t expect to defend. Selinger is shooting fresh, last-minute attack ads. And rumour has it the NDP has all but given up on non-incumbent candidates.

If you live in Manitoba, if you’re interested in saving a progressive government, and if you haven’t already got involved, now is the time to hit the streets and identify the NDP vote.