A new dynamic is emerging out of the Liberal leadership debates. Bob Rae, Stéphane Dion, and Michael Ignatieff have pulled ahead of the other six contestants, and through impolitic remarks about recognizing Quebec as a nation in the constitution, Ignatieff has succeeded in aligning Stéphane Dion against him.

In a multi-ballot convention this puts Bob Rae, who shares Dion’s views on the constitution, but has a wider base of support, in a position to win the Liberal leadership with Dion’s support.

Both men have clear links to Jean Chrétien. Rae’s brother ran elections for Chrétien, who brought Dion into politics. Ignatieff is seen as more of an inheritor of Paul Martin, so some of the new dynamic is being fueled by an old rivalry.

Dion is the classic example of an intellectual in politics: he wants to be chosen leader for his ideas. The surprise of the campaign is the passion he exhibits, and the effect this is having on Liberal audiences.

In the Vancouver debate, this past Sunday, Dion, cheered on by a large contingent of supporters, reminded the audience that he entered politics ten years earlier to fight for national unity, and unlike Kipling (East is east, and West is west, and never the twain shall meet) wanted to unite East and West, Montreal and Vancouver, not divide the country in a constitutional battle.

Afterwards, referring to Ignatieff’s remarks in the Quebec City leadership debate a week earlier, Dion asked a friendly group of academic observers “how many nations they wanted to include in the Canadian constitution”?

Bob Rae was quick to pick up on the Ignatieff pledge to re-open the constitutional file, and calling on his own experience at the centre of negotiating the failed Charlottetown Accord, warned of the difficulties ahead for anyone foolhardy enough to choose the path of constitutional negotiations.

Rae and Dion are not just on the same side on the constitutional issue. In Vancouver, as part of the first three-way debate (with nine leadership candidates, they debated in groups of three), they both jumped on Ignatieff, the third debater, for his stand on Iraq.

Rae challenged Ignatieff about never disavowing his support for George W. Bush on the invasion. Dion was unhappy that Ignatieff, while claiming to speak in solidarity with the Kurds and Shia, and against Saddam Hussein, had in fact written an article in 2003 arguing the invasion was justified because Iraq had arms of mass destruction, an untruth. The article by the Canadian answered the question “why we are in Iraq,” and appeared in the New York Times Magazine.

While Ignatieff is out in front in the race for leader, as measured by interest in his candidacy, support from MPs and riding presidents, and fundraising appeal, in order to secure a first ballot victory he needed to avoid mistakes, and has failed to do so.

In a multi-ballot convention, the candidate with the best links to other camps has a clear advantage, and this looks to be Rae.

The promising candidates whose French is not up to it have been relegated to the second tier. Scott Brison, Gerard Kennedy and Ken Dryden all have support, but only Dryden has the appeal to make a go of it at the convention. The last three, Hedy Fry, Joe Volpe and Martha Hall Findlay are not players in the vote for the selection of candidates that will take place on the September 29 weekend.

There will be nearly 5000 elected delegates at the leadership convention at the beginning of December in Montreal. Each riding elects up to 14 delegates, and at the same time each riding association simultaneously casts ballots for the leader. Selected delegates are to be apportioned to each candidate on the basis of the riding association vote, and agree to be assigned and to vote for a candidate on the first ballot only. Each of the Liberal party commissions, youth (220), aboriginal (245), senior (7), and women (82) will also elect delegates.

In addition, there will be some 800 ex-officio delegates made up of past and present MPs, Senators, party executive members and riding association officials. This group played an important role in choosing John Turner, then Jean Chrétien. It looks to be for Ignatieff, and may well be anti-Rae. Many of his former adversaries are in this group starting with David Peterson, the Liberal he defeated to become NDP premier, and his brother, MP Jim Peterson, strong Ignatieff supporters.

As candidate Hedy Fry complained in Vancouver, the delegate fee of $995 plus the cost of travel and accommodations would limit who could attend the convention. In other words, when the Liberals with money select the next leader, the moneyed interests get disproportionate representation.

When the Liberals select a leader it will be looking for someone to lead the party to victory over the Conservatives. Bob Rae is polling well with Bloc and NDP supporters, two groups the Liberals need to form a majority government. In a minority scenario it would be interesting to see if he would be able to establish a working relationship with his former party. The Ontario NDP are said to welcome a Rae victory, arguing it might at last stop the angry greetings at the door about how Bob Rae and the NDP ruined the Ontario economy.

The question the voters will be asking in the next election — who will make the best Prime Minister — has yet to surface, but may well do so once delegates are selected.

Duncan Cameron

Duncan Cameron

Born in Victoria B.C. in 1944, Duncan now lives in Vancouver. Following graduation from the University of Alberta he joined the Department of Finance (Ottawa) in 1966 and was financial advisor to the...