Stephen Harper is Prime Minister because of the unexpected election of ten Conservative members from Quebec. His hold on office depends on the support of the Bloc Québécois in the House of Commons, since the Liberals have pledged to oppose the government on issues of disagreement, and the NDP do not have the numbers to defeat the government.

Watching the Conservatives strut, you have to wonder how they expect to stay in power. The list of what Canadians have lost in a short span of Conservative rule is truly extraordinary.

  • We no longer have a child-care plan.
  • The Kelowna accord on Aboriginal rights is dead, despite the support of every province.
  • The government has foregone about $5 billion in tax revenue through its GST cut.
  • The military expedition to Afghanistan has been renewed without adequate discussion or debate.
  • The Canadian delegation to the meetings on climate change was instructed to derail an internationally agreed timetable for progress on reducing harmful emissions.

So what is the Bloc doing supporting the Conservatives? After all it has strong progressive credentials.

The quick answer is that the Bloc is giving the Conservatives a lot of rope in the hopes the government will hang itself in Quebec. On the surface this looks like a distinct possibility. Much of the right-wing agenda being advanced and defended by Stephen Harper will not wash in Montreal, and progressive circles around Quebec.

But the Quebec Conservatives were elected outside Montreal in distinctly small-c conservative ridings. One tends to forget that rural Quebec of the strong French cultural tradition is mostly conservative in outlook. In Montreal where the NDP should do well with progressive voters, the nationalist perspective does the party in.

So Harper is betting that his potential supporters in Quebec will not be spooked by the retrograde agenda of the government, and he may be proven right.

On the other hand, he may have fundamentally misread the public mood and be setting himself up for a national electoral defeat at the hands of the Liberals.

By supporting the Conservatives, the Bloc is also buying itself some time before having to confront the Liberals who are its natural enemy. This part of their strategy is working out. The Parliamentary debate on Afghanistan split leading Liberals.

Michael Ignatieff voted to continue the Afghanistan mission, without requesting more Parliamentary time for debate. By taking the same position as Paul Martin, Ignatieff may have won some support from the Martin people who still control the Liberal Party. By voting with interim party leader Bill Graham he has chosen to assume the responsibilities of the former Liberal government.

Watching the Bloc play the Parliamentary game for what it is worth reminds us of how the sovereignty issue finds its way into public debate.

The Bloc has carved out a role for itself as the defender of the sovereigntist faith, and as the honest fixer of problems that concern Quebec. But for it to thrive it needs an adversary.Until the Liberals find a leader, the Bloc will drift. Once it determines the Conservative have lost their appeal in Quebec, the attack will not be far behind.

The Quebec ten need to become 20 or 30 or better for the Conservatives to hold onto their place in Quebec society. The irony is that the Liberals force the Bloc to fight a two-front war.

The Bloc wants to make quite sure they have the Conservatives quiet and tiring of criticism before launching an all-out attack. The problem is that the Liberals, not the Bloc may benefit from the attempt by the Bloc to buy time by supporting the Conservatives.

Duncan Cameron

Duncan Cameron

Born in Victoria B.C. in 1944, Duncan now lives in Vancouver. Following graduation from the University of Alberta he joined the Department of Finance (Ottawa) in 1966 and was financial advisor to the...