This is the point in the short history of the Canadian Conservative party when it must decide its fate. It can realize the dreams of its leader, inherited from Preston Manning and father Ernest C. Manning, and be the party of the ideological right. Or it can remember the basics about political parties: there are the “ins” and the “outs.” The Conservatives are now the “ins” and should figure out how to stay the “ins” keeping the others, notably the Liberals, as the “outs” for the foreseeable future.

The old Tory gang, led by Hugh Segal and Marjorie LeBreton will counsel the second strategy; the former Reformers will be calling for the Fraser Institute to inspire the next budget, and expecting the White House to give the lead on foreign policy, ever the while looking to roll back social policy to pre-depression standards.

With this background in mind, assume the Conservatives welcome the discipline of power, and expect them to be astute in office. If your heart is with social movements prepare the most important mobilization since the fight against free trade in the late 1980s.

In order to win a majority, which will be necessary to implement their ideological program, the Conservatives need to find over 30 seats in the next election, to be expected in 2007. They are not going to come from Western Canada, though a BC specific agenda should be expected. After all, the Conservatives lost five seats in BC, falling back to 17, and there are 36 overall so they have room to grow, unlike in Alberta where they hold every one, or Saskatchewan where they fell one short of total victory.

The best prospect is seat rich Quebec (75) where the Bloc slipped back in popular vote, and the Conservatives surged, winning ten seats.

A deal with the Quebec provincial Liberal government — one with popular support — could also mean some more Conservative seats in Ontario in the next election, as a thank-you for an increase in political stability.

Everybody in Quebec would expect the Bloc to oppose a deal, and therefore opposition should be anticipated, but discounted.

The Federal Liberals are divided terribly over Quebec. The Trudeauites (Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff) might want to oppose any devolution of power to Quebec, but the Paul Martin rump once favoured just such a deal with Quebec nationalists, and might want a truce with provincial Liberals.

The key for a Quebec deal is the NDP. With a deal Jack Layton could support, a Stephen Harper-Jean Charest accord would solicit less opposition outside Quebec.

So, the NDP should not wait for Harper to do the obvious, and move to conciliate the Quebec Liberals, his natural allies.

The NDP should pre-empt the Conservatives, and itself take the lead on the Quebec file, following up on business arising from the Gomery Report with a plan for restoring federal-provincial finances that would implement the long standing NDP position of not treating Quebec as a province like the others, and have progressive support.

In making itself a player in the negotiations to come with Quebec, the NDP must ensure the so-called national unity file is neither a stick to beat Quebec, or a device to weaken the Federal government.Charest needs a deal to have any hope of re-election.

The obvious problem is a deal with Quebec gives Harper a real shot at a majority as a reward. That might well scare off the NDP; this would be too bad.

The risk that Canada will become Harperland — a right wing wasteland — under a majority Conservative government is real. But the way to fight a party of the ideological right is through defeating it on ideas. That entails putting forward better ideas on every issue, starting with Quebec.To borrow a phrase, it is time for some truth and reconciliation on the issue of Quebec, and the Canadian federation. The new NDP caucus should initiate a national dialogue on restoring some dignity to relations between Quebecers and other Canadians. Its contribution should be to look beyond the next election to building a better future for citizens. That is also its best election strategy.

Duncan Cameron

Duncan Cameron

Born in Victoria B.C. in 1944, Duncan now lives in Vancouver. Following graduation from the University of Alberta he joined the Department of Finance (Ottawa) in 1966 and was financial advisor to the...