Elections are easy to understand, right? Someone wins, others lose. But, if you think Canadians are voting to elect a government, you would be wrong. What is at stake is electing a parliament. Under our constitution, parliament decides who forms the government. How we hand over political power has been obscured by three successive elections which have returned a Liberal majority.

In 1993, once the returns were counted, Prime Minister Kim Campbell did not have to consult with a political scientist to know what to do. She had lost her seat, and her party was down to two members. Officially, she resigned as prime minister; but no one noticed her handing in a letter to the Governor General.

On the evening of June 28, regardless of the outcome of the vote, Paul Martin will still be prime minister. It is very likely he will not have a majority. He could well have fewer seats than the Conservatives. But, as prime minister, he could decide to meet parliament, prepare for a speech from the throne, work out a legislative program and consult on delivering a budget.

The kicker is he would have to maintain the support of a parliament in which he commanded only a minority of votes.Parliament could decide to vote a motion of non-confidence, and defeat the Liberals. Then Prime Minister Martin would meet Governor General Clarkson.

If the P.M. wanted new elections, it would be in the G.G.’s power to refuse.

Instead, the G.G. could summon the opposition leader, and ask him to form a government. Then, should he agree, Prime Minister Harper would meet parliament. It would be his turn to seek support for legislation, and eventually a budget.

Harper would remain prime minister until he lost a vote of non-confidence in parliament. At that point, his request for an election would most likely be granted by the G.G., as neither leading party would have been able to maintain the confidence of a majority of MPs.

So parliament rules. The Bloc with about 50 seats would be the key player in this minority government scenario. They would have to choose: prop up Paul Martin, or defeat him on a non-confidence motion, knowing they would then have to support Stephen Harper, or face an immediate election.

There are lots of reasons why the Bloc might avoid an early election. The circumstances for their subsequent re-election could hardly be as favourable as June 28. Bloc members could be punished for causing an unwanted election.

When the sovereigntist party has to choose a dance partner, Martin or Harper, a lot will go on the line. Support Harper, and watch the anger against the Liberals dissipate, imperiling the Bloc for next time. Polka with Paul, and face this question: why vote Bloc, when you get the Liberals?

The best play for the NDP will be to speak to the issues: Here is what loses you support, Mr. Prime Minister; here is what gets you our vote in the House of Commons.

Prime Minister Martin will have to think twice before assuming power, if he has lost the popular vote, and won fewer seats than the Conservatives. Should he turn over the reins to Harper, the great war going on within the Liberal party will surely escalate.Look for his enemies, rivals and disillusioned Liberals to pressure Martin to step down as party leader. A few aspiring Liberal political rainmakers have no doubt already attached themselves to Ken Dryden’s campaign to win a parliamentary seat.

Duncan Cameron

Duncan Cameron

Born in Victoria B.C. in 1944, Duncan now lives in Vancouver. Following graduation from the University of Alberta he joined the Department of Finance (Ottawa) in 1966 and was financial advisor to the...