The victory of the French right in the 2007 presidential, and legislativeelections is provoking some serious debate by the left on its future. Theinability of the Communists and the Greens to put up a decent showing, ineither election, and the failure of the centre parties to follow up strongpresidential election results in the first round with legislative success,has divided Socialists as to what is the best political strategy for theparty.

Can the left win by itself, or must it ally itself somewhat with the centre?Former Socialist party secretary and prime minister, Lionel Jospin haspublished an indictment of his party, and its presidential candidateSégolène Royal in his new book, called Impasse. Notably, Jospin calls forthe creation of one big party of the French left.

Less fraternally, Jospin also want to discourage Socialists from choosingRoyal as their next party secretary, and eventual candidate in the 2012presidential elections. He suspects her of wanting to forge links with thecentre, thereby weakening the left.

However, since she won the support of 17 million voters — 47 per cent ofthe electorate — in the second round of presidential voting, after winingthe party election to be their presidential candidate with the support of60 per cent of Socialist party members, Royal remains the leading figurein the party.

There is much speculation as to what Royal envisages for the future of theleft. Her early response to criticism is to point to the need to make ahome on the left for an emerging electorate made up of voters who do notremember, or care about, the historic battles within the French left. Sheargues the young, and the politically alienated do care about newdemocratic challenges. Thus her presidential campaign promoted listeningto the people, and identified democratic participation as the best wayforward, not repeating party dogmas.

French socialists won the presidential elections of 1981 and 1988following the strategy of a union with the stronger French CommunistParty. But the Socialists lost in 1995. Disastrously, in 2002, theSocialists failed to get their candidate (Jospin) into the second roundrun-off election. The Green party and the Communists ran strongly enoughagainst the Socialist candidate (despite having cabinet ministers in theJospin government following a victory of the left in the 1997 legislativeelections) to allow the extreme right candidate to finish second, and goon to the final round against the Gaullist Chirac.

In 2007, the Gaullist Sarkozy, neutralized the extreme right as apolitical force by sending clear signals to its electorate that he waswilling and able to unleash the forces of law and order againstimmigrants, and stand tough on security issues. This led some on the leftto reason that the authoritarian Sarkozy would frighten the centreelectorate into supporting the left candidate, but it did not happen.For Jospin, the centre parties are not independent, but an integral partof the right. The electoral system, with two rounds of voting, encouragesa left/right split in the decisive second round, and rules out centristsallying with the left.

Jospin thinks the failure of the left can be attributed to disunity.Ironically, Royal agrees. But she thinks the problem is disunity withinthe Socialist party itself, not across the wider left. She wants to changethe Socialist party, and will most likely seek to be confirmed as itsleader.

The Royal presidential candidacy was undermined by non-support andoutright opposition from her Socialist rivals. Having lost to her not longbefore the main campaign, they failed to rally support for her. To reducethis type of ego conflict it makes sense to designate Royal as the nextcandidate far in advance of the 2012 election. One of the main reasons theSocialists won in 1981 was that François Mitterand had been the recognizedleader of his party, and the designated candidate of the left under theterms of the alliance with the Communists, well before the election.

Jospin is surely right about the need for one big party of the left, buthe is wrong to think the Socialist party he led for so many years was notto blame for the loss of the last three presidential elections. Royal isright to recognize the need to bring in the young, and the politicallyalienated into party politics. Royal sees Sarkozy as a threat to Frenchrepublican values. If she is right, and there is little doubt on thatscore, then it makes sense to reach out as widely as possible to build aneffective electoral opposition.

Duncan Cameron

Duncan Cameron

Born in Victoria B.C. in 1944, Duncan now lives in Vancouver. Following graduation from the University of Alberta he joined the Department of Finance (Ottawa) in 1966 and was financial advisor to the...