Toronto City Hall at dusk.
Toronto City Hall. Credit: Maksim Sokolov / Wikimedia Commons Credit: Maksim Sokolov / Wikimedia Commons

In my February 24 article, I put forward the proposition that a left-centre coalition candidate is needed for progressives to take back the Mayor’s office. I suggested that a “go it alone” candidate on the left had little chance of winning. While overall, I received positive feedback to the story, one friend questioned whether “a progressive coalition capable of making large-scale agreements still exists”. Five weeks later, I fear they may be right.

Where are we at?

Nominations for the by-election open on April 3 for a June 26 by-election. Until then, aspirants are prohibited from fundraising and advertising. To date, 14 people have indicated that they’ll be filing nomination papers. Others are still considering it. 

Five of the aspirants ran for mayor in 2022 and placed second, third, fourth, ninth and 12th accounting for 27 per cent of the total vote. Tory received a whopping 62 per cent. If a viable coalition candidate emerges, hopefully some of these candidates will throw their support behind that person.
Lesson 1: Every vote matters in a tight, first-past-the-post election. 

Voter turnout was a record low 29 per cent in 2022. John Tory’s 62 per cent translated into only 18 per cent of all eligible voters. Some mandate!  Gil Penalosa placed a distant second with five per cent of eligible voters.

Lesson 2: There is a path to victory. Whoever can inspire the most people to get out and vote may have the best chance of winning.

Let’s have a look at the “major” aspirants so far. 

On the right

Doug Ford

While he’s not running for the position again and is proclaiming neutrality, serial contortionist Doug Ford is already campaigning. Most recently, he warned voters not to support any candidate who has ever voted to divert even a nickel of the police budget toward more social services. He is now openly non-campaigning for Mark Saunders and Anthony Furey. At the same time he’s non-campaigning against Josh Matlow with dire warnings of “anarchy” in the streets if the police budget is touched. Ford is also demanding ‘efficiencies’ in the budget to cut millions.

Mark Saunders
Former police Chief Saunders is a failed Conservative Party candidate and was Ford’s appointee as “Ontario Place Special Advisor”. Ford intends to build an exclusive, elite spa with lots of parking for the one per cent in what’s supposed to be a public park. Thanks Chief. Prediction: Saunders may be the one to beat in June – without much explanation of the underlying causes such as inadequate mental health care and drug gangs fighting over turf.

Anthony Furey
Furey is a journalist associated with Sun Media and True North, voice of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (PCO). He’s trying to position himself as an anti-establishment populist with a touch of condescending compassion for those struggling with mental health and addiction. Not a word about affordable housing or transit riders in his opening announcement. He promises to review all city spending and make deep cuts.

Giorgio Mammoliti
Former Councillor, NDP MPP and Rob Ford sidekick Giorgio Mammoliti is also in the race. He once vowed that his constituents would wait 50 years for a subway before they’d ever support an LRT on Finch Avenue but it should be in operation before year end.

Rob Davis
Former Borough of York councilor and PCO candidate Rob Davis is also looking to make a comeback after 20+ years out of office. He was once closely aligned to former Mayor Mel Lastman.

Lesson 3: The right is much better at circling their wagons to maximize their collective opportunities. Sometimes they break up for a while, but they always get back together again when it matters.
Prediction: Three of these four will withdraw and back the frontrunner. 

Stephen “sour grapes” Holyday is considering running. He’s a former Tory ally and deputy mayor who broke with the mayor when Tory worked with some council progressives at the height of COVID.

In the middle

Mitzie Hunter

Liberal MPP Mitzie Hunter has announced that she’s running. She has until May 12 to resign her seat at Queen’s Park. Let’s see if she does. The former Minister of Education worked for Tory’s Civic Action group before entering politics. She endorsed Tory for mayor in 2014 and 2018. “Fool me once…”
Ana Bailoa 

Ana Bailoa is another Liberal who was part of the Tory camp. She also served as one of his deputy mayors. She didn’t run for re-election in 2022. She took her expertise on the housing file to a new job with a developer working on a waterfront project. Who knew she had mayoral aspirations? Bailoa supports the strong mayor powers bestowed by Ford to silence councillors and veto any of their budget amendments. She claims to reject the power to enact by-laws with only one-third support from Councilors.

Brad Bradford

Urban planner Brad Bradford is in his second term on Council. Bradford was endorsed for Council by John Tory who appointed him as Chair of the Planning and Housing Committee. To his credit, Bradford supported the failed 2020 motion to divert 10 per cent of the police budget to social services but has backed off, now bragging that he voted to increase the police budget five times. That didn’t stop Doug Ford from taking an indirect swipe at him anyway.

On the centre-left

Josh Matlow

The launch of the “Friends of Josh Matlow” was a good start at “reaching across the aisle”. The support from street nurse and anti-poverty activist Cathy Crowe was especially significant for me. Matlow often wades in on controversial issues like policing, homeless encampments and transit. Before becoming a councillor, he worked for the environmental NGO Earthroots and the Canadian Peace Alliance. In 2002, he ran unsuccessfully for the Ontario Liberal Party in a by-election against Premier Ernie Eves. 

Gil Penalosa
While urban planner Gil Penalosa has a lot of good ideas, he’s not well known by voters. He lacks an election machine capable of raising a lot of money and reaching into every corner of the city. He would do well to play an advisory role to a coalition candidate if one emerges. While some election campaigns swear that lawn signs are a vital way to create a sense of momentum, Penalosa refused to use them in the last election because of the plastic waste.

On the left

Veteran NDP campaigner and former Councilor and MP Olivia Chow is seriously mulling over a second mayoral run. Unless she becomes a candidate, I don’t have any comments. 

Who can rise to the challenge?
Here’s a few questions to ask when evaluating a left/centre-left coalition candidate:

  • Can they build a multi-racial coalition that reaches into all neighborhoods?
  • Can they persuade other candidates to withdraw and join the coalition?
  • What are the key planks of their platform? How do they distinguish themselves from the rest of the pack? What compromises are they prepared to make?
  • Where do they stand on the “strong mayor powers” which aim to silence councilors and promote minority rule? 
  • How will they increase voter turnout?
  • Which current and past Toronto councilors, MPPs and MPs can they bring to the coalition to activate their volunteer networks and donors? 
  • Can they recruit well known Torontonians from all walks of life to endorse?
  • Can they acknowledge their own weaknesses and overcome any serious obstacles in their way? 

There’s lots more questions but you get the drift. After twelve years of conservative rule in Toronto, can we do better than a Tory-like or “Tory-lite” mayor? I hope so.

Gary A. Shaul

Gary Shaul is a life-long Torontonian and retired Ontario civil servant. He's been involved with a number of issues over the past 45 years including trade unionism, proportional representation, Indigenous...