As with the 2004 election the greatest danger the country faces this time around is a Liberal majority government because that will unleash what Paul Martin actually stands for: deep integration with the U.S., privatized medicare, support for U.S. foreign policy, water exports and the further decentralization of the federal government.

It is likely that we will again have a minority Liberal government which in the circumstances is the best outcome we can hope for as there is an excellent chance that the NDP can leverage even more progressive policies in exchange for supporting the government.

A Liberal majority is still possible. The longer election campaign (56 days versus 35 last time) works in favour of Martin because Conservative leader Stephen Harper lacks the self-discipline for a long campaign (though the Conservatives have a huge war chest compared to the Liberals). Harper is contemptuous of democracy and ordinary Canadians and gives up easily.

Last time he spent the last week of the campaign in Alberta where he was certain of winning anyway. He was actually gaining in the polls and could conceivably have formed a minority government himself — but he is such a crank, he basically got annoyed with the whole thing and went home. He detests popular culture and couldn’t even show up at the iconic Grey Cup game. In addition, there is no indication that Harper actually has a coherent election strategy.

Balancing off Harper’s weaknesses is the strength of the Bloc Québécois in Quebec — now at a stunning 59 per cent. Without a strong showing in Quebec (barring a total Conservative collapse in Ontario — unlikely) it is virtually impossible for Martin to get a majority. Quebec is the one place where the sponsorship scandal still counts because Quebecois are furious with theLiberals for portraying all Quebec politics as corrupt.

There is a very good chance that the NDP will get at least 25 and possibly 30 seats in this election. NDP leader Jack Layton is a much more effective politician than he was last time: more experienced, less slick-seeming and actually has a “record” (the NDP budget of last spring) unprecedented for a leader with just 19 seats.

He will likely play the “we want to make Parliament work — again” card while Martin and Harper savage each other — in addition to choosing key policies like medicare privatization to run on. This time around an explicit part of the NDP message will be countering the scare tactics of the Liberals which cost the NDP seats last time.

In addition, the party has partially addressed its historic weakness — credibility on economic policy — by recruiting Paul Summerville, former chief economist for RBC Dominion, to run in Toronto where the party hopes to gain several seats.

Another factor favouring a better NDP result is the Green Party, which last time played a spoiler role preventing as many as four NDP candidates from winning (in Saskatchewan and BC). It looks as if it will not be as significant this time around — it was at just one per cent in the major Environics poll released the day the government fell. Another poll had them at 3.9 per cent. The day the election was called in 2004 they were at seven per cent.

Jim Harris and his party have been all but invisible and are now more clearly identified as being conservative. Canadians seem to be pledging to vote for parties that will actually be in the game in Parliament partly because the minority government scenario has shown that what happens there actually matters.

The Liberals will try to convince voters that an election was unnecessary — that they were “governing” and had announced a whole raft of spending initiatives that the opposition killed by bringing the government down: The opposition parties are irresponsible and Harper is too ambitious. In other words, they will do the same as last time and historically: run from the left, hoping to win and govern from the right.

Martin will run on the “economy” which he hopes will take advantage of the fact that Canadians are relatively content with the current state of country. They will play the fear card again against Harper hoping to scoop up NDP voters.

While that tactic may still work to some degree it will not work as well because 1) People have some experience of the benefits of a minority government, 2) Harper has decided to run on policies virtually identical to those of the Liberals to neutralize the scare weapon (of course he is lying but he presents a smaller, moving target) and 3) The NDP won’t be caught off guard twice.

The wild card in this election is what Harper will do and what his campaign will look like. He tends to surround himself with like-minded ideologues and has consistently rejected help from experienced campaign managers from the old PC party. Ideologues are notoriously impractical. If something doesn’t work — they do it more vigorously. If Harper tries to ride out the whole campaign attacking Martin on the sponsorship scandal he will be committing political suicide. He is quite capable of this.

On the policy side he will mimic the Liberals. But most voters beyond Conservative core support (28-30 per cent) will not trust him. It is just too big a leap from someone who has expressed contempt for his own country to someone who embraces medicare. He has managed through coaching to appear more human — but he is still the grim reaper of Canadian politics and no amount of coaching can change a troglodyte into a prince.

And, of course, he still has a lot of the extreme loonies from Reform/Alliance in his caucus all eager to shoot themselves and their party in the foot. Right wing Christians have won several nomination battles in BC — providing a huge potential for embarrassment. Rumour has it that the party is spending a lot on duct tape this time around.

But for all his alleged concern about off-the-wall comments, Harper has effectively given them the green light — on the first day he pledged to revisit the gay marriage issue. Brains by Hasbro. Preston Manning would never have made such a patently stupid move.

The trust factor could be a major one in this election. A CBC poll says trust is the second most important issue to Canadians following health care. A poll in The Globe and Mail on November 28 said 33 per cent think the Liberals have a hidden agenda and 25 per cent think the Conservatives do. Just seven per cent say this of the NDP, a perception which they should be able to take advantage of.

Because they will not be the government, the NDP’s promises — of keeping the other two parties honest and leveraging progressive policies — are promises the NDP has already kept and can be “trusted” to keep again.

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Murray Dobbin

Murray Dobbin was rabble.ca's Senior Contributing Editor. He was a journalist, broadcaster, author and social activist for over 40 years. A board member and researcher with the Canadian Centre for Policy...