In the last two years, major social unrest has rocked Bolivia, and traditional political parties and leaders have been unable to respond in an acceptable manner, tending instead towards brutal repression and violence. Municipal elections across the country earlier this month provide insight into the future possibilities for democracy in Bolivia.

The people vote

Normally a bustling city dominated by thousands of retro styled buses, customized koumbis, and taxis blaring the horn at every intersection, on December 5 an eerie calm fell over the Bolivian capital of La Paz. Strict national regulations forbid driving on election day, so the streets were silent while residents of La Paz, along with Bolivians across the country went to the polls en masse to elect new municipal governments.

Electoral reforms introduced in July 2004, meant to increase Indigenous participation and restore faith in the democratic process, did little to change the outcome of that Sunday’s elections. The election results in Bolivia’s ten biggest cities, announced a few days later, saw seven incumbent mayors returning for their second term. In La Paz, centre left Juan del Granada, from the Fearless movement (MSM) was re-elected, although his opponents took to the streets days after the election declaring the results fraudulent. In the sprawling heights of neighbouring El Alto, neoliberal Jose Luis Paredes was elected for a second term.

The most interesting — and likely the most watched — development of these elections is the status of the Movimiento Al Socialismo (Movement Towards Socialism), which emerged without a majority in any major city, but as the major party of the elections. As support for all the traditional parties combined fell to less than 10 per cent, the MAS won seats in the four largest municipalities in Bolivia, a feat which no other party came close to matching.

The MAS emerged in 2002 as a contender in the federal elections, when IMF favourite Sanchez de Lozada entered into a coalition with another traditional party to edge out MAS leader Evo Morales for the presidency. De Lozada, the second richest man in Bolivia and a target for intense pressure from American and petrol interests, took on his second term as president with a much larger opposition in parliament than in his first term. Little did he know that this MAS dominated opposition in parliament was to be indicative of a massive grassroots resistance to his policies that was about to explode across the country. Understanding the tumultuous events in Bolivia since the election of De Lozada helps explain why all eyes were on the MAS in the recent elections.

The multitude and the MAS

In January 2003, major protests erupted in the Chaparé region, led by coca growers (or cocaleros) and spearheaded by Morales. Fed up with de De Lozada’s support for the ongoing U.S. sponsored drug war, the cocaleros took to the streets on January 13. These demonstrations, which took the form of road blockades, ended with more than 10 people killed by state security forces, and hundreds detained or wounded. This violent repression by De Lozada’s government was but a hint of things to come.

Bolivia came to the world’s attention in what is now known as the “October Crisis” of 2003, when resistance to De Lozada’s plan to export natural gas to California via Chile turned bloody. Beginning with a general strike in La Paz on September 29, resistance to the gas plan gathered steam into October. All sectors of Bolivian society, from coca growers to the middle class and students to miners marched together against the proposed gas exports.

Road blockades in La Paz and El Alto shut down both cities, and the resistance came to a head on October 12, when 16 demonstrators were killed by state security forces. By the week’s end, another 42 people were killed, more than 200 wounded, and De Lozada had fled to the U.S. Carlos Mesa, De Lozada’s vice president, withdrew his support for the outgoing president, and assumed the presidency himself.

The October crisis was a bloody example of Bolivians rising up against neoliberalism, and although the MAS and other alternative parties may have provided support to the cause, it was ordinary citizens — and not political parties — who were the thrust behind the demonstrations. Since then, Bolivia has been hanging in an uncertain stability.

Among Mesa’s reformist projects was a referendum on the future of natural gas exploitation in Bolivia. Criticized for not asking straight out if Bolivians wanted a nationalized natural gas industry, Mesa’s 2004 referendum nevertheless allowed Bolivians to vote in favour of increased governmental participation in natural gas procurement and exportation.

A new hydrocarbons law, which is currently being debated in parliament, proposes to raise taxes on production revenues from natural gas from 18 per cent to 50 per cent promising to re-invest in the oft maligned sectors of health, education, transportation and job creation.

Looking forward

In the last two years, MAS has been established as a new force within and outside of parliament. Although it is a sure loss to the MAS to have missed electing a mayor in Cochabamba, capital of the Chaparé region, their voice has been amplified through the surge in support for their municipal platforms in these elections. While some journalists and analysts are quick to state that because of the results they feel that the MAS is sure to win the 2007 federal elections, the view on the ground in La Paz is that the next presidency is far from decided.

Even while the MAS represents a strong alternative to the right wing traditional parties in Bolivia, there is also a growing contingent of Bolivians who are tired of the whole democratic process. “It’s all politics” says Mario Laudoeta, a security guard from El Alto, “They all have their own interests at heart, whether they’re from the MAS, or otherwise.” In a country where abstaining on voting day is punishable by a three day prison sentence, reforms are in the works to create a new governing body, known as the constituents’ assembly, which is meant to infuse civil society’s presence into democratic life. The first constituents’ assembly is to be elected in 2005, and it remains to be seen how the MAS will fit into this new structure.

The next two years will be crucial in determining whether Bolivia joins other South American countries in a progressive block, or whether neoliberalism and repression continue to work hand and fist to govern the country. This month’s election results in Bolivia show a promising, but not definitive, shift to the left in the political composition of the country.