As Canadians contemplate the throne speech and a probable spring election, we have a tycoon Prime Minister leading the Liberals and the possibility of a telegenic youthful blond female leader for the Conservatives. This season, federal politics brings us a combination of two reality shows that bombed last time they aired.

It’s déjà vu all over again: I watched, with fascinated dread, when John Turner took over the leadership of the Liberal Party in 1984. The longtime heir-apparent promptly called an election and led the Liberals to their greatest election defeat in the 20th century. Now Paul Martin is the new leader, and I have to wonder: is he destined for the same fate?

Admittedly, John Turner was rusty when he became Prime Minister, whereas Paul Martin is oh-so-smooth. But, like Turner, Martin seems to think the whole world functions like the Old Boys’ Club — the constituency he knows best.

Blind spots are important, because traditionally, a substantial segment of Liberal support comes from people who are not like Martin at all. Public opinion polls usually show a gender gap where women favour the Liberals more than men do, often by ten points or more. Similarly, immigrant groups tend to vote Liberal, whether they perceive Liberals as the government that admitted them, or the party that is more tolerant of differences.

As I argued in my 1985 book, Women of Influence (Doubleday), John Turner threw away the natural Liberal constituencies one by one. First, he alienated women, by slapping Liberal party president Iona Campagnola on the bottom — on camera, yet! Then he angered immigrants and ignored youth, university and artistic types. The upshot? Turner set a new record as Canada’s shortest-serving Prime Minister (from June 30 to Sept 16, 1984). Even Kim Campbell lasted longer (June 25 to Nov 3, 1993).

Watch what he does, not what he says

Paul Martin pledged to increase the number of women in Cabinet, and then alarmed women both inside and outside the Liberal party by giving really minor jobs to nine out of 11 women that he appointed. His public snub of Sheila Copps has won her new friends among pundits who scorned or made fun of her before. Martin also opened incumbent seats to internal challenge for nominations, leaving many women MPs feeling threatened. Are women mad enough to vote for someone else yet?

Paul Martin’s Quebec lieutenant, Heritage Minister Heléne Scherrer, has already worried Canada’s culture sector by not attending the Canadian Forum on Cultural Enterprise, which the Heritage Minister was scheduled to co-chair. On the Environment, the NDP has pointed out that the main endorsement for Martin’s position on the Kyoto Accord comes from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. Finally, Martin has appointed former International Trade Minister Pierre Pettigrew as Health Minister — an area where most Canadians believe international trade can only be seen as an unwelcome invader.

It is a truism in Canadian politics that every election is the incumbent’s to lose. When a party in power loses, it’s almost always because it defeated itself. Then voters choose the least objectionable alternative. Voters were mad at Pierre Trudeau when he left office. That is the main reason the party chose a new leader.

Tweedledum and Tweedledumber?

John Turner started with a clean slate and a chance to regain public affection for the Liberals. He blew it. Voters elected Brian Mulroney’s Tories instead. Mulroney went on to become the most-hated Prime Minister in recent history. As testament to his legacy (which included the Goods and Services Tax and the first Free Trade Agreement), his party lost spectacularly in 1994. Voters elected only two Tories in all of Canada. But Mulroney had stepped down by then. In his place, the party elected a young(ish), vivacious, twice-divorced, telegenic, rookie female leader. Her name was Belinda — er, Kim Campbell.

Karl Marx said that history repeats itself, first as tragedy and then as farce. The expected spring election is shaping up as a test of that axiom. Ironically, by repeating their patterns, the main parties might be providing the third party — the NDP — with the best shot it’s had in years at forming the Opposition or (with enough protest votes) part of a minority federal government.

Penney Kome

Penney Kome

Award-winning journalist and author Penney Kome has published six non-fiction books and hundreds of periodical articles, as well as writing a national column for 12 years and a local (Calgary) column...