The combined opposition has seized control of Parliament — and Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservatives couldn’t be happier.They probably set their opponents up, using “narrowcasting,” a political strategy right out of U.S. President George W. Bush’s playbook.

“Narrowcasting” appears counter-intuitive to a minority party’s pursuit of a majority government. Instead of moving to the centre to lure the moderate majority, narrowcasting tailors its appeal to the minority party’s core support to the exclusion of everyone else. The idea is that a solid, mobilized and happy base will influence undecided friends, neighbours and relatives. These swing voters will start thinking that the government would be good for them, too.

Harper’s “Republican” Conservatives replicate their soulmates south of the border. Many of the issues that mobilized Republicans for Bush are now front and centre in Canada.

Take a look at the Conservative agenda the combined Liberal, NDP and Bloc Québécois opposition is blocking. It is:

  • stoutly religious (the repeal of same-sex marriage and, failing that, a Defence of Religion Act);
  • pro-gun and militaristic (the abolition of the federal long-gun registry despite its strong support in urban Canada, the big increase in defence spending and the extension and expansion of Canada’s Afghan mission into outright war);
  • anti-equality (the elimination of the Court Challenges Program, national day care and women’s advocacy initiatives and major cuts to aboriginal programs);
  • anti-Kyoto Accord (the change-the-subject Clean Air Act which targets smog, not greenhouse gases, even though smog helps slow global warming by reducing the sun’s heat);
  • staunchly law and order (the plethora of crime legislation including the three strikes bill with its odious reverse onus provision);
  • and economically libertarian (the planned destruction of the Canadian Wheat Board by any means necessary, including breaking the law itself, and trampling over democratic norms by disqualifying some voters half-way through board of director elections.)

These are all politically incendiary “wedge” issues. Because they deal with peoples’ fundamental beliefs and self-perceptions, they relegate bread-and-butter issues like the economy and broad social policy to the back seat. The Globe and Mail political columnist John Ibbitson believes crime and religion are “wedges” that could work for Harper. In a recent column, he pointed out the Conservatives need the support of about 35 per cent of voters to stay in office and about 40 per cent to form a majority government.

Then he asked this question: “What percentage of the population do you think would like to see tougher sentences for all criminals, dangerous offenders locked away indefinitely and religious rights protected for devout political officials? Exactly.”

The Prime Minister is already in full campaign mode, exhibiting rage and indignation at the opposition’s cavalier behaviour, describing it as “arrogant and anti-democratic.” He disregards his words as leader of the Official Opposition less than a year ago that a minority government must consult and work with the opposition. Instead, he issues dire warnings that his rivals will pay a heavy price for stalling or defeating his agenda.

Greg Lyle, former Manitoba premier Gary Filmon’s political strategist, has worked for the B.C. Social Credit Party, the B.C. Liberals and former Ontario Conservative premier Mike Harris and is now a pollster with Innovative Research Group in Toronto. He described the Republicans’ narrowcasting technique to The Hill Times‘ Simon Doyle:

“It’s a proven model of success for electoral support,” Lyle said. “The truth of it is that there are sort of 30 per cent that are with the Tories no matter what, and 50 per cent that will never vote for them, and maybe one-in-five Canadians that are open to them and that aren’t solidly with them.

“You may not be one of the groups that benefits from one of these narrowcast issues, but you see people you identify with benefiting, and so this says that this is a government and a leader that could care about people like you,” Lyle continued. “One of the inadvertent benefits of narrowcasting is actually a macro benefit.”

Manitoba Conservative Leader Hugh McFadyen is doing some narrowcasting of his own with his proposal to fine parents for not supervising their children. He was reacting to news that a 12-year-old girl, two 14-year-old girls and a 15-year-old boy had been arrested in connection with a recent beating death in Winnipeg.

“At the end of the day parents need to be held responsible at one level or another,” he said.

As a lawyer, McFadyen has to be aware of the dire social problems in Winnipeg’s inner city, including dysfunctional or virtually non-existent families and the devastating impact of fetal alcohol syndrome on children. Attempting to fine parents is worse than useless in this context because it further victimizes families who already cannot cope.

Politically, however, any simplistic “crime crackdown” is gold to politicians like Harper and McFadyen, appealing to their conservative base on two levels. It avoids the public investment necessary to attack homelessness, unemployment, poverty and urban decay while it fuels the pursuit of ever-lower taxes.