Until now, I had entertained the naïve hope that because things have worked out almost magically well with Nova Scotia’s minority government since it was elected a year ago, the same thing might happen at the federal level. Good vibes might spread, the opposition might offer reasonable positions, the government might respond with acceptable compromises, and things might actually work, at least for a lovely little while.

No such luck. Apparently, it’s all over except the precise act of disintegration of the Martin government amid more and more accusations of scandal and chicanery, and an opposition with the scent of blood in its nostrils.

For those of us who fret about where all this might lead, all that’s left is to contemplate the likely twists in the drama.

The standard cycle, repeated many times since Confederation, is as follows: The Liberal party gets kicked out after too many years in power and too many accumulated scandals. They’re replaced by the Tories who, after all those years out of office, have only the vaguest idea how to govern. Lacking the graces required by high office, and full of narrow and intemperate schemes that lead them quickly into trouble, they fall apart within a relatively short time. The Liberals then get a new leader and a new look, prettied up by the best spin doctors money can buy. With a grand new rhetoric, they sweep back to power and start the routine all over again.

Alas, it’s not that simple anymore. If it was, we could sit back and say, ho hum. But there’s something more sinister afoot — and it’s mainly constitutional in nature. Somehow, we can’t get away from that.

Let’s start with the fact that the Conservatives aren’t really the Tories we knew. They’re no longer a national party, they’ve dropped the “progressive” from “Progressive Conservative, ” and divisions still linger from their merger with the Reform/Alliance party.

This means they might actually disintegrate even faster than usual if they came to power, especially in a minority situation, which is the most likely outcome if the polling results hold until the end.

Normally, under such circumstances, the Liberals could find a new leader, refresh their policy, and return triumphant forthwith. But these aren’t normal times. Now the separatist Bloc Québécois, with the balance of power, would actually hold sway. They would have every interest in keeping the Conservatives in power as long as possible, and for a couple of troubling reasons.

For one thing, the longer things stayed that way, the more it would confirm the country as a place of two separate realities — Canada and Quebec. And the longer things stayed that way, the closer the increasingly unpopular government of Jean Charest would come to an election in Quebec — and to the separatist Parti Québécois returning to power with plans to call a new referendum on independence. Keep a close eye on that scenario as events unfold.

Of course, an election this spring (or even later) might backfire and the Liberals could return with a minority. This could especially happen if the electorate was disgusted enough to stay away from the polls in droves. A Liberal minority, however, would only perpetuate the sense of unresolved crisis. And what would be the point?

I keep thinking of the NDP in all this. It was the rise of the NDP that, in fact, sobered up Nova Scotia politics and broke up the threadbare Liberal-Tory cycle. The voice of NDP Leader Jack Layton occasionally comes through at the federal level, pleading for attention to the issues and the government business at hand, and not just the Ottawa-centred election frenzy. No luck.

The NDP is actually coming through as the one level-headed party in the whole circus — the one aware that the country doesn’t want an election now, and the one trying to keep the government going until a few things get done. Hopefully, when the election comes, it will get credit for this. But it’s instructive that you have to go down the list to the fourth party in the standings before discovering anything that looks like sound judgment in Canadian politics.