Prime Minister Paul Martin over the past week has been saying that a vote for the NDP will result in a Conservative government. This couldn’t be further from the truth. If the Liberals lose this election, it’s a result of centrist and swing voters who are switching their support from the Liberals to the Conservatives.

Throughout December the Liberals on average were leading the Conservatives by 37 per cent to 30 per cent. In late December-early January the RCMP announced an investigation into a possible Liberal leak on income trusts. By mid-January the Conservatives began to poll between 37-40 per cent and the Liberals dropped to 27-30 per cent. Was this a result of left-wing vote splitting?

All the polling research indicates the exact opposite. After the RCMP announced its investigation, the Liberals lost a considerable number of centrist and swing voters to the Tories. This group of centrist voters gravitate only between the Liberals and the Conservatives, not the NDP. While the Conservatives were increasing their support at the expense of the Liberals, support for the NDP only increased by one to two per cent.

Recent polls across the country have shown that many soft Conservative supporters are more likely to vote for the NDP than the Liberals. According to a recent poll reported in the The Globe and Mail, the recent increase in NDP support in British Columbia has come at the expense of the Conservative Party. That isn’t much of a surprise. Fify five per cent of Conservative supporters in BC stated the NDP is their second choice. There are a large number of anti-Liberal Canadian voters who are willing to look beyond ideology and support either the NDP or the Conservatives.

The Liberals have been doing everything they can to mislead voters about strategic voting. A key example is the riding of Oshawa. In the 2004 election, NDP candidate Sid Ryan came in second place by less than one per cent to his Conservative challenger. You would think the Oshawa Liberals would strategically vote for Sid Ryan to turf the Conservative candidate. Instead, the Liberals have been falsely claiming that a vote for Sid Ryan and the NDP was a wasted vote, even though the Liberals came in only third place. The Liberals have been using these kinds of arguments to mislead progressive voters in many ridings across the country where the NDP has the best chance to defeat a Tory.

If the Conservatives do win a minority government, who do we want as our official opposition? The heavily indebted Liberal Party will be preoccupied with fighting RCMP investigations. Paul Martin would probably have to resign and trigger a leadership race. By the time the new Liberal leader is nominated in six to nine months, he or she will be spending a considerable amount of time uniting the Martin and Chrétien camps instead of opposing the Conservative government.

Left-leaning progressive voters should vote for the truly progressive party in this election. We should vote for a united party who will make sure Canada fulfills its Kyoto obligations, will fight against the reckless foreign policy of George W. Bush, and protect our universal healthcare system. Vote NDP in this election. Don’t waste your vote on the Liberals.