U.S. Senator John Kerry is steamrolling through theDemocratic primaries, winning almost every state —but can he win Canada?

Democrats living north of the border will pick their man at the Canadian caucus in Toronto and send up to two delegates to the Democratic National Convention in July. In total, Democrats living outside the United States get ninevotes at the convention.

Joe Green, the chair of Democrats Abroad Canada, saysthe early favourite is “ABB — Anyone but Bush.”

Most Democrats Abroad agree. Policies are secondaryin this race — they want to pick the candidate withthe best chance of defeating the president. They justcan’t agree on who that is.

Green is waiting until Sunday to make up his mind, andmight even lead an “undecided” slate at the caucusmeeting, in the hopes of buying even more time. Onething’s for sure, he doesn’t think the Democratsshould elect Howard Dean. “Dean is terrific and hehas all the right values, but he doesn’t have asnowball’s chance in hell of winning,” he says.

Green is starting to think John Kerry looks like awinner, especially because he has the “party machine”behind him. And he’s convinced Kerry is smart enoughto “see that people’s anger (at Bush) will cause themto support a much more socially active platform,” unlike the “Republican Lite” policies of Bill Clinton.

But there’s still a solid base of “Dean-iacs” inCanada. Dean “meet-ups” have been held in Toronto,and the leader of Democrats Abroad in Calgary, AnneJayne, wears a Dean button wherever she goes. Shefinds that Canadians know a lot about the candidatesand the campaign, and are anxious to talk about it forone main reason — even in Alberta, people hate Bush.

Though Dean’s campaign is faltering, Jayne refuses tothink about other options. She says she’s with theformer Vermont governor until he “loses, quits ordies.”

“The other candidates are members of Congress whorolled over and played dead for Bush” during thedebate on Iraq, she says. It wasn’t until Deanstepped up and took a strong anti-war stand thatDemocrats started to pay attention to the race. “Deanhas led the way,” Jayne says. And she’s convinced hecan still go all the way to the White House.

Alex Blackstock, a political studies student atConcordia University in Montreal, used to be withDean’s team, but abandoned his campaign last Septemberin favour of Wesley Clark. “George Bush has made itclear that national security will be the focus of thecampaign,” he says, “and who better to take him onthan a four-star general?” He says Dean just doesn’thave the national security background to win the race.

If Clark wins the nomination, Blackstock is hoping towork on his campaign as a volunteer youth coordinatorin his home state of New York. But he’s starting tothink John Kerry is the man to beat — and he’s okaywith that. Blackstock notes that one of his politicalheroes, Ted Kennedy, is behind Kerry’s candidacy.

None of the contenders has come up to Canada tocampaign, but most have done conference calls withDemocrats Abroad around the world (there are alsochapters in South America, Europe and Asia). On everycall, Democrats Abroad seem to be pushing the samepriority — improving America’s internationalrelations. “I want a president who’s nottrigger-happy and quick to bomb everything,” saysBlackstock. “September 11 was an opportunity to bandtogether with other nations, but Bush’s unilateralapproach caused him to abandon his friends.”

Anne Jayne says one of the things she likes aboutDean’s approach to foreign policy is that it’s “veryCanadian and very wise.” Cooperation is the way togo, she says.

But if Kerry continues his winning streak and takesCanada on Sunday, it might be more than a bandwagonthing. Ken Warmbrod, the Democrats Abroad leader inWinnipeg, says party members in his city did aninformal poll at a July 4 event last year, and thewinner was Kerry. He’s supporting Kerry, too, becauseof his experience in the U.S. Senate. “As an insider,he has knowledge that isn’t appreciated,” saysWarmbrod.

After this Sunday’s caucus, the next step forDemocrats in Canada is to register as many voters aspossible to defeat George Bush in November. Joe Greenestimates there are up to 400,000 Americans living inCanada, but the Democrats only know a fraction ofthem. If you’re an adult American living in Canada(even if you’re a dual citizen), you’re eligible tovote in your home state, or the home state of yourparents. “As we learned in 2000, every vote counts,” says Blackstock, which is why Democrats are anxious to register as many new voters as possible.

For more information, visit Democrats Abroad Canada or call Joe Green at 416-916-2022 (inside Toronto) or toll-free1-877-336-2008 (outside Toronto). The caucus was at Toronto Metro Hall, 55 John Street and at the Good Earth Cafe, 1502-11th Street West in Calgary.