“The scale of change in the global economy in the next20 years is nothing less than apocalyptic, and oil isin a tailspin of decline that could lead to militaryuprisings and mass refugee movements on a scale we’venever seen.”

Michael Meecher had our attention. Tony Blair’s formerenvironment minister was the keynote speaker at anOctober conference in London, “The End of Oil.”Organized by three non-governmental organizations inEngland (CRed, East Anglia Food Link, andPowerswitch), the day-long event focused on thelinkages between climate change, peak oil, transportand food production.

Peak oil is the point at which we’ve extracted half,the easy half, of the world’s oil reserves. Theremaining half will be the half that will provokeintense environmental debate (e.g. the Arctic NationalWildlife Refuge).

It is also the half that willrequire higher-cost solutions (developing thetar sands) that, even if developed, would only supplyworld demand for a few years. China and India havedrastically increased their demand for oil. But, torespond to such demand, it takes time (three to four years todevelop on-shore oil projects; five to seven years for off-shoreprojects). The era of peak oil will increasingly beabout how much oil can be delivered to market on amonth-by-month basis (oil “flows” not oil “reserves”in the ground).

We all need to eat. We will still need to eat afterthe era of cheap oil and natural gas has ended. But,at present, fossil fuels warm the homes of those inthe fishing and farming industries; it powers theirdiesel boats and tractors.

Three factors signaldrastic changes in the future of food production. One,oil enables just-in-time food deliveries, by rail,ship, truck and airplane, to supermarket distributioncentres. Such a system will be tested bymonth-by-month fluctuations in the supply of oil tothe world market.

Second, industrialized agriculturedepends on fertilizer (synthesized ammonia fromatmospheric nitrogen and the hydrogen in fossilfuels). Fertilizer produces an artificial yield thatdepends on fossil fuel inputs remaining cheap.

Finally, shipping food by refrigerated truck or jet isfar too energy-intensive. Truck freight is 10 timesmore intensive than train or water. Refrigerated jetsmove an increasing proportion of our food using 60times more energy than by sea transport.

A two-hour afternoon workshop at the “End of Oil”conference discussed how to encourage a more local andorganic approach to food production, outside of thecontrol of supermarkets. A world that embraced a moresustainable solution to food, in an era of peak oil,would subscribe to a number of ideas:

  • The development of perennial food crops for morenortherly countries (Canada; Britain if the GulfStream shuts down due to salinity changes with moremelted icecap freshwater in the ocean), for example,high-protein sweet chestnuts and walnuts, to avoidinternational imports
  • Biological methods of pest control and soilfertility enhancement
  • Thorough labelling of packaged fruit/vegetables:consumers need to be able to choose food producedclosest to their home, and to know the “energycontent” of the food (was it flown, was it sent byrail, was it sent by boat, were alternative energysources used at the source farm?)
  • Worker control of the former distribution networksused by supermarkets
  • A more direct geographic connection between foodproducers and consumers: Oakland, California hasdebated that, by 2015, 40 per cent of vegetables consumed inthe city should be grown within a 50-mile radius
  • Reworking of urban sewage systems to reclaim humanexcrement for compost
  • Food preparation skills (to avoid processed food) ona mass level: this would entail a drastic change toprimary school curricula, with education about foodpreparation and nutrition, and incorporating foodgardens into the design of new schools; for adults, itwould mean community-run cookery classes
  • A different model of land ownership: common groundswithin urban areas for allotment production; greenbelts around cities of two million people, along themodel of Havana; building local markets into new urbandevelopments

Life, in what James Howard Kunstler has called “TheLong Emergency” of the end of cheap oil, will be“profoundly and intensely local.” The dominantparadigm of relating to food will change.

Transnational supermarket chains, backed by theirpatron government’s military force, may end updeciding what countries receive oil to ration out fooddistribution. Or, change could come out of the aboveprogram of bottom-up, community-centredalternatives. This second approach, however, wouldrequire significant buy-in from people used to drivingto and from supermarkets who expect shiny perfectapples 99 times out of 100.

Fiona Williams, an activist from Brighton, reached theheart of the issue by asking Tim Lang, professor infood policy at City University in London, “how tomarket austerity to the masses?”

His answer was straightforward: why should we drive toa supermarket when we can receive an organic box offruit and vegetables at a community centre, or directto our door?

“As a campaigner,” he remarked, “I’velearnt that you can’t sell bad news. We have to marketsimplicity, since society is unhappy. Public healthwill get worse in unequal societies. Simplicity isbetter than austerity.”