According to the latest poll, Alberta’s election race has tightened significantly, and the province’s One True Conservative Party is now in a statistical tie with the province’s Other One True Conservative Party.

Actually, never mind the “statistical” bit. According to the on-line poll of 902 voters taken over the weekend by Leger Marketing and published this morning in the Postmedia newspapers, the difference in support for the far-right Wildrose Party under Danielle Smith and the not-quite-so-far-right Progressive Conservative Party under Premier Alison Redford is pretty much an honest-to-god dead heat.

Wildrose: 35.5 per cent

Conservatives: 34.2 per cent

Remember, however, that because of the strength of Wildrose support in Calgary, these results would still translate into a slim Wildrose majority.

The slippage in the Wildrose support – 5.8 per cent since April 4, says Leger – is probably the result of voters starting to pay attention to what the party really stands for, and the merits of its positions on such things as privatized health care and holding referenda on abortion rights.

Respondents were also clearly unimpressed, according to Leger, with Ms. Smith’s idea of giving everyone drawing breath in the province a $300 “energy dividend” cheque, with what support there was clearly concentrated among Wildrose die-hards.

Voters may also has started thinking about the potentially catastrophic effects of yet another massive reorganization of Alberta Health Services, as promised by the Wildrose Party. AHS has just gotten through nearly five years of chaos, and there’s a school of thought that more of the same would be ruinous. In fairness, however, there was no question on the Leger survey that directly dealt with that dire possibility.

Likewise, the Conservatives’ Road-to-Damascus conversion to the merits of public health care, based presumably on their reading of their own private polls, may be helping shore up support for the party’s up-to-now wobbly campaign.

A slightly larger number of undecided respondents indicated they were leaning toward supporting one right-wing party or the other – 21.6 per cent for the Tories and 18.1 per cent for the Wildrose.

The survey also shows some other interesting ties. On the question of whom would make the best premier, 28 per cent plumped for Ms. Smith, 27 per cent for Ms. Redford, the two clear leaders.

On the question of whom was likely to emerge as the No. 3 party in province-wide popular support, the NDP under Brian Mason and the Alberta Liberals under Raj Sherman were also effectively tied:

NDP: 13.2 per cent

Alberta Liberals: 12.5 per cent

However, support for the NDP seemed to be showing more signs of potential growth among the survey’s respondents.

A clear majority of respondents told the pollster they thought it was time for a new government in Alberta. The apparently growing problem facing the Wildrose Party with this conclusion by Albertans is that a significant number of them obviously have their doubts about making that change to an extremist party of the far right.

With results like these, if they truly reflect the divisions in opinion among the province’s voters, Thursday’s leader’s debate is clearly of paramount importance to all parties that will be represented there.

This post also appears on David Climenhaga’s blog, Alberta Diary.

David J. Climenhaga

David J. Climenhaga

David Climenhaga is a journalist and trade union communicator who has worked in senior writing and editing positions with the Globe and Mail and the Calgary Herald. He left journalism after the strike...