If Alberta’s United Conservative Party (UCP) were the “centre right” political party its leader Danielle Smith would like us to imagine it is, the disqualification of Nadine Wellwood as a candidate would barely rate as news.
After all, Wellwood is so far out there on the right wing’s anti-vaxx fringe she was certain to become a major embarrassment, probably sooner than later.
But the UCP isn’t a normal Canadian political party, even given the continuing radicalization of the Canadian right, and Smith is not a normal Canadian political leader.
Truth be told, there’s not a lot of light between Wellwood’s beliefs, which are apparently so bonkers they got her disqualified as a UCP candidate, and those of Ms. Smith, which were apparently so mainstream they got her elected leader and premier.
As unsuitable as Wellwood may have seemed, the former People’s Party of Canada Banff-Airdrie candidate known for comparing vaccine passports to Nazi policies and cheering on convoy blockades seemed likely to be acclaimed as UCP candidate in the Livingstone-Macleod riding Premier Smith calls home.
After all, just days ago, Livingstone-Macleod UCP MLA Roger Reid dropped out of the nomination battle, saying that “while I hoped to serve a second term, I no longer feel it is possible for me to do so.”
Notwithstanding Reid’s previous reluctance to give up his seat so Premier Smith could run for the Legislature in her home riding, he is widely assumed to have seen the writing on the wall saying Wellwood’s vigorous organizing effort was about to overcome him.
But yesterday – the eve of today’s by-election in Brooks-Medicine Hat where Smith opted to run instead for a seat in the Legislature – Wellwood published a statement on her website saying she had “received a letter stating that the Party Candidate Selection Committee (PCSC) rejected my application based on a referral from the Executive Director of the UCP.”
In it, she called for the party’s decision to be overturned “as it is a direct violation of a fair and just democracy and does not reflect a free election process.”
She noted, accurately, that “similar disqualifications were conducted under the previous UCP Leader, in ridings like Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre or Cardston-Siksika, to ensure a preferred candidate would be selected.” (Indeed, there had been talk Smith might reverse those disqualifications – although now, maybe not so much.)
Wellman also charged that “the Jason Kenney faction of the UCP board is still in place and making all Party decisions until the newly elected members are able to participate at the first UCP Executive Board Meeting later this month.”
This version of the situation has been challenged by current members of the party board, but it is true that the nine board members elected at the party’s annual general meeting in Edmonton last month were all members of an anti-vaccine Take Back Alberta slate in tune with the views of both Wellwood and Smith.
So what gives?
Well, the UCP was always an uncomfortable coalition between Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose Party members hammered together as the only solution to the vote splitting on the right that led to the election of Rachel Notley’s NDP Government in 2015.
Once Kenney was chosen as the UCP’s leader in 2017, he was able to keep it united as long as it succeeded – which it probably would have continued had it not been for the witches’ brew of passions aroused on the right by the COVID-19 pandemic.
As a result, what was once the anti-vaccine fringe now may be poised to control the party.
If they succeed, they can probably live with Smith as leader, as long as she does their bidding.
If they fail, they may see divorce as their most appealing option.
But if they win and Smith does what they want, her chances of winning a general election in 2023 or 2024 are significantly reduced. That, of course, would be good news for Notley and the NDP.
If the UCP can’t win, it has no raison d’être. In that case, the chances of the party fragmenting again may increase.
So, what happens next?
Well, that would be today’s by-election in Brooks-Medicine Hat.
Will Wellwood’s announcement have an impact on that vote?
All I can say is … surely some revelation is at hand!
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Nick Seebruch, editor
