Tuesday, the day after, the Globe and Mail saw it right from the point of view of the elites. This is a double victory. It is a victory for hard-line neoliberal policies mixed with a realignment of Canada at the world level. And it is a strategic victory not only against the Bloc but against Quebec nationalism, the “biggest threat” according to the G&M.

The first victory

Harper has a strong mandate with less than 25% of the citizens, which reflects well on this lousy Canadian anti-democratic system. He is going to rule hard-ball: why would he not? The point by the way for Stephen is not “just” to govern, but to restructure, as it was done by Thatcher and Reagan 30 years ago. Restructuring means changing the fundamental rules by which the capitalist regime is reproduced. First of all, smash any meaningful opposition by almost any means: outright repression (à la G8), manipulation of the (more or less consenting) media, systemic weakening of political parties, discipline and control over public servants transformed into junior executants, and more lies, and more threats. No compromise. No playing around. In parallel, continue to develop the “Toronto-Calgary axis” along big finance and big oil. Hopefully, there will be enough profits to trickle some of it down to descending middle and popular classes who can go work in the oil fields in any case. For the bourgeoisie, a “cheap government” (except for military and security expenses) will guarantee the pursuit of “prosperity”, meaning high wages and income for the few. For the U.S., Canada will be at the forefront of the “endless war.”

The second victory

Then there is a second victory. Quebec nationalism, the torn in the foot for the last 40 years, has been strategically defeated. It is not going to go away, but it’s neutralized for a decade or so. As Conrad Black was explaining it last week (again in the G&M), the Canadian state was unable to do any serious restructuring with this threat. Whenever the ruling class was demanding hard changes, the monster was reappearing and this is why, until now, we have not seen a major offensive like what happened in the USA or the U.K. This is not to say that Quebecois and Canadian social movements had no role, but let us be realistic here, movements by themselves did not have that kind of depth. While the Bloc is finished, the fire is now turning against the PQ. Pauline Marois was relatively confident in the last while, knowing that she will face in the next two years an election against the most unpopular party in recent history (Charest). But now the danger is imminent. The PQ right-wing is agitating. It is leaning towards the former PQ education minister, François Legault, who is advocating dumping many social policies and moreover, postponing to a vague future any new attempt to achieve sovereignty. In many ways, he will try to be on the same spin than allowed Jack to win. “Vote for me because I am nice guy and I am not like them.” He could do the trick according to recent polls.

Jack is happy

Who am I to ruin a party? But can we look at the facts? The orange wave was a huge coalition, anti-Harper, anti-Liberal and even anti-Bloc. Unknown candidates, that had never set foot in the ridings, were elected with huge majority, like in Mille-Isles (Laval) where a former CAW leader, Luc Desnoyers, was campaigning for the Bloc with massive trade union support. Historically conservative ridings (Pontiac, Portneuf, and Shefford) who have always vote Conservative federally and provincially, have elected NDP candidates, some of them barely able to speak French while they are finishing their undergrad degree at McGill (I like students by the way). And so, this was not a turn to the left. Basically everyone voted for Jack, neither the NDP nor his candidates. There are important exceptions in the NDP of course. Romeo Saganash, the Cree leader in Abitibi, union activists Nycole Turmel and Alexandre Boulerice, and a handful of mostly Montreal-based candidates won with the support with the support of the left, the same very people that votes Québec Solidaire. The truth is that Jack created an extraordinary rainbow coalition on a simple message to “help families” and defeat the “old parties” (Conservative, Liberal and Bloc). But this is where the fragility comes in.

The lines of confrontation

The social block (not the electoral arithmetic) behind Harper is very solid: the big bourgeois, upper urban middle classes, new rising privatised middle classes (lots of immigrants), even the multitude west of Ontario who are gaining from the huge investments in oil and minerals. All of that with a strong core of Christian rightists, campaigning 12 months a year against women’s and gay rights, for “tough-on-crime” policies, etc. Unless there is a major crash (another 2008), Harper will navigate peacefully. Now this is a formidable adversary.

What is there in front?

In Ottawa, Harper will face one hundred more or less NDP MPs, a handful of Liberals and Bloquistes. Unless Machiavelli (pardon Harper) makes many mistakes, this opposition will be much weaker than it was with the previous minority governments, but even less so than during the Chretien years when the Liberals had to watch their back all day long against the Bloc. Harper will rock-and-roll anything he wants.

So if we talk about concrete results of the NDP rise at the parliamentary level, it is dubious, at least on the short term.

One can say, “hang on, let this party gain confidence and support and then have another shot at it in the next elections.” But the political realities do not look so promising.

In Quebec, it is difficult to imagine that the honeymoon with Jack will last long. Recently big instant love affairs evaporated rapidly with surging personalities (Lucien Bouchard) or undefined political formations (ADQ). For the NDP, there will have to be definitions, strategies, policies. Thomas Mulcair, the real kingpin, is a centrist, mildly social-liberal and above everything else, a federalist. Half of his elected crew is on the left, sentimentally if not politically attached to left nationalism and even QS. Mulcair has already sent early warnings, prohibiting the new MPs to have media interviews (sounds like Harper). What will Jack and Mulcair say when Stephen will accelerate his onslaught? I sincerely hope by the way that will find some key, because if not, we will suffer.

The next steps

Many political and social activists right now are taking stock. The left and for that matter, the right, did not see it coming like that. So obviously, there is much analytical and retrospective work to do. There is also some preparation to do: the battles will start very soon. Québec Solidaire founds itself in a relatively good position. I say relatively, because the support is growing, but a bit hesitantly. For many citizens, the “left” is identified with the PQ still. QS appears as the “left of the left” and this is a stumbling block. The big leap is therefore to build a “hegemonic” project, not just an oppositional outlet, “by default” so to speak. It is an astounding task. And as usual, the right will not give us a second chance.

picture-56.jpg

Pierre Beaudet

Pierre was active in international solidarity and social movements in Quebec, and was the founder of Quebec NGO Alternatives, and Editor of the Nouveaux cahiers du socialisme. He blogged on rabble.ca in...