Question: Now that Jason Kenney has taken to social media to announce he’s retiring from Alberta politics, how likely is it that Premier Danielle Smith will call a by-election in his Calgary-Lougheed riding?
Answer: Not very.
Premier Smith presumably will use the same excuses she did in October when she called a by-election in a conveniently vacated safe rural seat for herself but didn’t bother calling one in Calgary-Elbow, where MLA and former cabinet minister Doug Schweitzer had quit more than a month earlier.
To wit: She said she didn’t have to fill the seat because there’s an election planned in less than a year, and anyway, only holding one by-election would save money.
The real reason, of course, is that she was afraid the NDP would win a by-election in Calgary, and still is, even in a normally safe Conservative riding.
However, residents of Calgary-Elbow and Calgary-Lougheed can comfort themselves that they won’t really need an MLA anyway if Smith’s Sovereignty Act is passed, which of course it will be by the UCP’s spineless caucus.
Conservative MLAs in Alberta are mostly decorative at the best of times, all the more so since the Sovereignty Act – technically but tendentiously known as the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act (ASWUCA)– will make their presence in the Legislature purely ornamental.
One is tempted to suggest their roles are about as meaningful as those of members of the National People’s Congress of the People’s Republic of China.
Admittedly, that’s bit hyperbolic. In truth, the ASWUCA if unchallenged would leave Premier Smith with more in common with Hungarian Premier Viktor Orbán, known for his efforts to erode judicial independence, undermine parliamentary democracy, and encourage ethnic nationalism while maintaining the trappings of democracy.
Mind you, as I expect we will see, it’s a lot easier to turn a unitary state into an “illiberal Christian democracy,” as Orbán puts it, than a province in a federation where all provinces are already sovereign within their jurisdictions and a mechanism for resolving sovereignty disputes already exists in the courts.
Given the existence of Canada’s courts, I would say the chance the ASWUCA will not be challenged are nil, and the chances it will survive a challenge unscathed are remote.
Q: Is Kenney unhappy about the Sovereignty Act?
A: Of course he is.
He denounced it during the leadership campaign, in which he demonstrated how little influence he had over the party he all but created, just as he did in his failed effort to win a party leadership review in the face of the attacks by the Take Back Alberta cabal that backed Ms. Smith and now controls the UCP.
And he vaguely complained about it again in his resignation statement, which he tweeted along with his resignation letter Tuesday.
“We are the inheritors of great institutions built around abiding principles which were generated by a particular historical context,” he bloviated. “Our Westminster parliamentary democracy, part of our constitutional monarchy, is the guardian of a unique tradition of ordered liberty and the rule of law, all of which is centred on a belief in the inviolable dignity of the human person and an obligation to promote the common good.
“How these principles are applied to any particular issue as a matter for prudent judgment,” he continued wishy-washily. “But I am concerned that our democratic life is veering away from ordinary prudential debate towards a polarization that undermines our bedrock institution and principles.”
This is pretty cheeky, coming from a politician whose stock in trade was division and polarization – at least when it worked for him – notwithstanding his dubious shot at “the far left” for wishing to “cancel our history,” etc., and his complaint about his own side for “a vengeful anger and toxic cynicism which often seeks to tear things down.” (That is to say, presumably, for dumping him and then choosing Smith to replace him.)
Well, sometimes that’s what happens when you let the genie of divisiveness out of the bottle, and it’s hard to feel much sympathy for Kenney’s wish for a chance to “continue contributing to our democratic life by sharing some of what I have learned on a range of issues, including immigration, national security, Indigenous economic development, the state of the federation, economic growth, energy, and much more.”
No thank you, Mr. Kenney! You should forget about your dream of being an elder statesman beloved by all if you’re not even willing to forthrightly and bluntly condemn Smith’s Sovereignty Act for what it is, a gross power grab that will be deeply harmful to Alberta and those of us who live here.
Instead, Kenney left the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, of all organizations, to do the heavy lifting on the Sovereignty Act reaction file.
Chamber president Deborah Yedlin said yesterday the bill is unsupported by even “a shred of evidence” it will do anything positive for Alberta’s economy. “You can’t tell me this is going to support economic growth and support continued economic diversification in this province,” she said.
Well, at least no one is likely to condemn Kenney if in future he chooses to use his mom’s nursing home’s address as his legal address for Alberta, as he did back when he was an MP.
But I think he’s more likely to look next for a condo in the nation’s capital, where he is a fully paid-up member of the “Laurentian elite,” after all, and is sure to have many congenial friends.
He should be able to afford it: Kenney’s generous Parliamentary pension from his many days in Ottawa as a Calgary MP is scheduled to kick in on his 55th birthday, May 30, 2023.
That’s the day after Alberta is supposedly scheduled to hold a general election, an event that is unlikely to take place on schedule if the Smith Government’s electoral prospects look as grim next spring as they do right now.
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