The pandemic has dealt a fatal blow to the fantasy that Canada is immune from the gathering storm of far-right organizing and activism. Far-right populism is taking hold here, too. And there are plenty of politicians, establishment and otherwise, ready and more than willing to ride this emerging populist wave to power.
Nowhere is this clearer than in Alberta.
Vaccine hesitancy and populist principles
Premier Jason Kenney has managed the public health crisis as if the only constituency that matters are those Albertans most skeptical of public institutions and government power.
The province rushed to drop health restrictions last summer, and rushed to do so again at the end of February. Early in the pandemic, Kenney himself effectively handed anti-maskers a license to stage “large-scale protests” in defiance of gathering restrictions. He responded with timid words and no action to the 18-day-long blockade of the Coutts border crossing by truckers opposed to vaccine mandates.
All of these moves played directly to the under- and unvaccinated, who, although still a minority, represent a larger share of Alberta’s population than of any other province. CBC polling conducted midway through the pandemic sheds light on the political commitments of vaccine skeptics.
Agreeing with “populist” principles, like “trusting down-to-earth people over experts” and “believing politicians soon lose touch with the people after they are elected,” is a stronger predictor of vaccine hesitancy than vote intention. Albertans who score high on populist commitments had a 50 per cent chance of being vaccine skeptics, while those who intended to vote for the UCP had only a 34 per cent chance. Moderately populist Albertans were as likely (24 per cent) as those intending to vote NDP to avoid immunization.
The bottom line?
These are the “lunatics” Kenney ranted about in his now-infamous comments to UCP caucus staff last month. They’re the angriest members of his party, including the anti-maskers and “freedom activists” most disillusioned with pandemic public health measures.
And they’ve been running “the asylum” for some time.
The story of Kenney’s time in office is the story of a premier under siege from his party’s fringe members.
This time last year, sixteen UCP MLAs published an open letter criticizing their own government’s COVID policies. Kenney’s management of Alberta’s fourth wave triggered a caucus revolt last fall, which he survived in part by scheduling a leadership review for April 9, 2022. The months since saw a UCP MLA participate in the Coutts trucker blockade, which Kenney ostensibly opposed; and the premier’s main rival for the UCP leadership, Brian Jean, publicly invoke antisemitic and far-right rhetoric in his campaign messaging.
Throughout, Kenney’s rhetoric and public-health measures were carefully orchestrated to appease this anti-establishment faction within his party: the alternative being to see faction members topple his government.
Whoever wins the UCP leadership review will no doubt have to do the same. Right-wing populists show no signs of going away.
Good news for progressives?
Only a minority of Albertans surveyed in a February Ipsos poll (38 per cent) actually agreed with the truck protestors’ policy goals. Another survey found that a slim majority of Albertans actually opposed both the protestors’ call to lift all COVID restrictions and the protestors’ actions in making their demands known.
Moreover, although the UCP ties the NDP among decided voters in a hypothetical contest between Brian Jean and Rachel Notley, the UCP can still only claim the support of 31 per cent of Albertans. One suspects the balance will tilt back in the NDP’s favour once Albertans hear what the until-recently-retired Jean actually has to say.
This should be good news for progressives.
However, whether it is depends on progressives taking the right lessons from the current populist moment in Canadian—and Albertan—politics.
The danger for progressives is to confuse populist politics with popular politics. In fact, populism of any political stripe is a kind of extreme minority politics that leverages the discontent of the few to gain power over the many.
The right-wing populism currently on the rise in Canada is energetic, vocal and well-funded—a combination of factors that has allowed populist right-wing politicians and activists to hold Alberta’s government hostage these past two years in spite of the views of the province’s majority.
Unfortunately, Canada’s system of first-past-the-post voting rewards such highly mobilized minority movements.
Voters can tell pollsters whatever they want in-between election cycles. In the end, the only poll that really matters is on election day. It doesn’t matter if less than a quarter of voters turn out for that survey, as happened in the by-election that recently sent Brian Jean to the Alberta legislature: whoever comes out on top in our winner-takes-all setup is awarded the political power.
If the truckers’ protests have taught us anything, it’s that right-wing populists are more than able to make sure it’s their people who are showing up when it matters to press their political demands. Indeed, they’re even mobilizing people, ideologically indifferent to their cause, who just want to be a part of a movement with energy and an internal sense of community.
The lessons for progressives
First, progressives should be careful not to put too much faith in polling data that shows a majority of Canadians and Albertans oppose the truckers’ political agenda, and a majority of Albertans disapprove of the UCP’s populist handling of the pandemic. The far-right is still well positioned to achieve electoral and legislative victories, including in next year’s scheduled Alberta provincial election, so long as it remains organized and mobilized.
Second, progressive leaders and activists need to reframe their strategy for achieving political victories of their own. In this pandemic moment, the left benefits from majority support in key areas. But majority support doesn’t necessarily translate into legislative power. Progressives need to focus on building a disciplined minority, as active and energetic as its far-right opponents, to ensure populist organizing in the name of “the people” doesn’t silence the people’s actual voice.
Minority politics are a fact of life in Canada. Far-right minority rule doesn’t have to be, not even in places like Alberta that the left has traditionally ignored.
If progressives can take the right lessons from this country’s ascendant far-right populists, the left has a chance to seriously contest the conservative heartland of the Canadian West. And the chief lesson is this: in order to win, progressives need to get their people to show up.
Support rabble today!
We’re so glad you stopped by! Thanks for consuming rabble content this year.
rabble.ca is 100% reader and donor funded, so as an avid reader of our content, we hope you will consider gifting rabble with a donation during our summer fundraiser today.
Whether it be a one-time donation or a small monthly contribution, your support is critical to keep rabble writers producing the work you’ve come to rely on as a part of a healthy media diet.
Become a rabble rouser — donate to rabble.ca today.
Nick Seebruch, editor
