The latest internal polls done by the Bloc indicate a vote slip in certain ridings, mostly in Montreal, which are going to … the NDP. It might jeopardize the re-election of several Bloc MPs. For example in Ahuntsic, a well-known progressive Bloquiste, Maria Mourani, is facing a tough challenge. Marina has fought Harper tooth and nails since 2006, especially against the Conservative “tough-on-crime” policies, that aim to build more jails and put kids in jails. In Quebec, policies tend to protect those under 18, and to insulate them from the usual criminal process. Several studies have showed that protection and rehabilitation are much more effective than jailing. Harper has never shied in his will to undermine that. Marina is threatened however by the Liberal candidate, courting “ethnic communities” in the gold old style of anti-Quebec nationalism.

Almost everywhere in Quebec, these are three-ways battles involving Bloc, Conservatives and Liberals. In Quebec-Appalaches and Saguenay (where Conservatives hold 10 seats), the Bloc could win some back, but Conservatives are well entrenched there through patronage, Christian fundamentalism and a straightforward reactionary culture. However, a slight slip with a few hundred votes could see them fail. In Montreal, the battle is between the Bloc and the Liberals. Swing votes again there could make a difference.

Outremont is where Thomas Mulcair of the NDP can keep his seat, but even there, the Liberals are making a huge effort. There is also Aylmer, where the Liberal incumbent could be ousted by the ex PSAC President running for the NDP, Nycole Turmel. The NDP will probably not win in these two ridings without the support of Nationalist voters.

So one does not need to be Einstein to decode the spin. If the NDP takes away Bloc voters, Conservatives and Liberals are likely to profit in terms of seats, and not the NDP, except that Jack will be able to say, “see, we have increased our percentage of the vote.”

Now here is the biggest mistake, very common within my left Canadian friends. The belief is that Quebec nationalism, at some point, will “collapse” and that the people of Quebec, at last, will see the “light” and come back to the “Canadian fold.” In such a case, Jack hopes, it will benefit the NDP, because Quebec voters are usually more left-leaning than elsewhere in Canada. The NDP, the dream is, could then become the true-blue party of the left in Canada, including Quebec. Sounds nice no?

But it isn’t going to work. First, Quebec nationalism will not evaporate. It can certainly have its ups and downs, related to political influences, social and economic context, etc. It can be negatively or positively influenced by social movements and even the left. Currently, it is true that the PQ (and to a certain extent the Bloc) is in an impasse. Its leadership is out of ideas, the membership is old and the leadership (especially of the PQ) is not credible for many people. In addition, the left is now taking its distance, especially there is an alternative called Quebec Solidaire.

But nationalism here is not dependent on the PQ or the Bloc. It is structural, long-term, based on the nature of the Canadian state (from its foundations). Unless the Canadian state is totally “refounded,” the fracture will remain. Not only is Quebec a nation, but more importantly, people aspire to self-determination, which could lead to, eventually, a new alliance with Canada, but on a peoples-to-peoples basis, involving the First Nations.

Is outright independence a must then? Not necessarily, to my mind at least. Let’s say that there is a tiny hope that Canadians and Québécois could agree to change the rules, which is probably what Jack dreams of (but won’t talk about). Never say never. But let us be frank, we won’t hold our breath on this. Most likely, independence has to occur, and then later, negotiations with Canada could come to a new political arrangement.

In the meantime, Jack is ill advised to take on the Bloc. First as said before, it will only allow Liberals and the Conservatives to make gains. Second, even if Jack is popular in Quebec, it means zilch in terms of the NDP really, which does not have a strong base considering that the left side of politics is already occupied.

Currently, some voters, left-leaning in general, might vote for the NDP because they feel it is closer to the NDP, so to speak. Or they will do it by “default,” because they feel that the political scene is stagnating and that Gilles can do much about it. So even if there is effectively a transfer of votes from the Bloc to the NDP, it does not have the meaning that the Canadian left would think.

To conclude, please stop the bullshit! Jack needs to concentrate where the NPD can make real and sustainable gains, in Ontario and B.C. And on the side, let him negotiate discrete arrangements with the Bloc to transfer votes, in the hope, for example, to keep Outremont and win Aylmer. In the long term, only a genuine alliance, between the Canadian left and the Quebec left, based on an unflinching attachment to Quebec’s right to self-determination, will change the correlation of forces in this pseudo democratic country. The enemy of the Canadian left is not Quebec nationalism.

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Pierre Beaudet

Pierre was active in international solidarity and social movements in Quebec, and was the founder of Quebec NGO Alternatives, and Editor of the Nouveaux cahiers du socialisme. He blogged on rabble.ca in...