Thanks to the success of former Progressive Conservative deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk’s Forever Canadian petition campaign, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith now finds herself on the proverbial horns of a very real dilemma.
Alberta Chief Electoral Officer Gordon McClure announced Monday that sufficient signatures have been verified for the requirements of the Citizen Initiative Act to be met and Lukaszuk’s Forever Canadian petition to be declared successful.
Elections Alberta said the total number of verified signatures after random statistical sampling with a 95-per cent confidence level was 404,293, and that 438,568 valid signatures were counted. That was well above the petition’s required 293,976 valid signatures, or 10 per cent of the voters in the 2023 provincial general election.
In the event, an estimated 13.6 per cent of all the electors in the province signed the petition – an outpouring of support for Canada that was a remarkable accomplishment by any measure.
Under the act, the premier’s United Conservative Party (UCP) government can either take the petition’s question – Do you agree that Alberta should remain in Canada? – to the Legislature for a vote that would probably end the separation debate. Or it can allow it to proceed to a province-wide referendum.
The first course would likely smoke out how many of the UCP’s MLAs and cabinet members are hardcore committed separatists. That would be bad for Smith and the party. The second course would create uncertainty, possibly drive away investment, and nevertheless result in a decisive loss for the separatists. That would also be bad for the premier and her party. It might drive the UCP separatists to set up their own MAGA-influenced far right party.
Without the government bending the rules or retroactively amending the province’s “direct democracy” laws, a yea vote in the Legislature would also block the wishes of the UCP’s large and influential separatist faction from having a secession referendum on their terms at least for five years – but practically speaking quite possibly forever.
So thanks to the remarkable success of the Forever Canadian campaign’s volunteers in every part of Alberta, Smith would appear to have found herself between a rock and a hard place.
According to Lukaszuk, who I talked to last night, “seldom are premiers faced with such really binary problems where the right and wrong are so clear: Do what’s right for the province. Don’t divide Albertans any further. Don’t cause us economic harm, and just deal with this in the Legislature. Or do what a small group of angry UCP party members demands of her and what’s expedient for her politically.”
“I chose the pathway that’s legislative, that gives her the opportunity to not call a referendum,” he said. “Separatists chose the pathway that forces her to have a referendum. I’m giving her an opportunity to do the right thing.”
“I certainly hope there is no referendum,” he added. “There doesn’t need to be one. Nearly half a million Albertans spoke loud and clear. But if there is one, I’m ready for it. I’m pivoting my campaign from petition-signature gathering campaign to a referendum campaign, and we’ll be prepared for it, just in case.” The campaign bus is in the shop right now getting a new transmission, he noted.
Lukaszuk thinks a significant number of Ralph Klein’s “severely normal Albertans” remain in the UCP camp. If Smith proceeds to a province-wide referendum, he argues, “they will walk away from her because they know the damage that this is going to cause.”
“Chambers of commerce across Alberta will be now coming out asking her not to have a referendum,” he predicted. “She is having positive talks with Prime Minister Carney. All that goodwill will be shredded immediately when she decides to go into a referendum.”
“I appreciate the dilemma of her position,” Lukaszuk concluded, “but, let’s be frank, it was Jason Kenney and her who put themselves into this position in the first place. First, they curated this sentiment of criticism within their own party. Then they created legislation for these referenda, and then they even made it easier for separatists to have these referenda. So they have no one else to blame but themselves.”
Regardless of what the UCP’s supporters are saying on social media, it’s hard to believe this is the high point for Smith it was supposed to be before she was publicly embarrassed by prominent members of the UCP’s separatist faction who booed her and attacked her pipeline deal with Mark Carney at the party’s annual general meeting last weekend.
Still, don’t count Smith out. She has a solid record of getting away with more than most politicians ever could. She will be looking for a way to dramatically change the channel. An early election on the pipeline deal might do the trick.
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Nick Seebruch, editor
