Much of the Alberta commentariat pivoted Friday to the theory Premier Jason Kenney himself was behind the leak of a recording of his speech to political staffers in which he accused the right wing of his United Conservative Party of bigotry and lunacy.
“I did not think that Kenney orchestrated the leak of his comments to staffers on Tuesday,” tweeted one influential frequent commentator. “But watching today’s press conference, I have completely changed my mind.”
“Can we talk about how this Kenney audio was clearly leaked by someone on his team to make him look reasonable,” said another.
The proximate cause of this course change was a government news conference Friday to re-announce funding for an air-ambulance service during which Kenney blithely reeled off some of the same talking points about the many UCP members who would like to see the last of him that Albertans first heard in the CBC’s report of his secret speech.
In response to a question from a reporter, Kenney declined to apologize for calling his opponents extremists, and insisted that “I am determined to ensure that such hateful, extreme and divisive voices do not find a home in this mainstream, broad, conservative party.”
Well, it’s possible he’s behind the leak. But it still seems unlikely, seeing as it made him look weak, barely in control of his staff or party. And if Kenney is anything, it’s not a leader who appreciates looking feeble.
Anyway, we were all bound to hear his main talking points soon enough as his campaign to salvage his reputation and hang onto his job picks up steam in advance of the UCP’s Apr. 9 annual general meeting in Red Deer and subsequent mail-in leadership review vote.
In that regard, his remarks to his staffers were just a dress rehearsal.
Moreover, from the commentariat’s perspective, having touted the man for years as a political genius, it’s far easier to attribute this development to his brain power than to admit it’s a risky move driven by desperation.
So a dispute over whether the leak was the work of the premier and his brain trust or just a disgruntled employee is almost entirely academic.
The important question is whether collapsing another part of the Alberta conservative movement’s “big tent” can be a winning strategy for Kenney.
After all, the tent was diminished soon after the creation of the UCP when Progressive Conservative Red Tories were discouraged from hanging around.
Now that Kenney seems to be losing the UCP’s right fringe to splinter parties and general disillusionment with his reluctant COVID-19 mitigation policies over the past two years, he’s decided to call those oppose him lunatics—at least until he’s dispatched his chief rival, former Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean, to a place where he no longer constitutes a threat.
Once Kenney has managed to survive his leadership review vote—which seems likely now that the party board has changed the voting process to make it easier for him to win—he’ll probably try to stitch his right wing coalition back together again.
You could see the broad strokes of the UCP’s re-election messaging during Friday’s news conference, which served as a sort of informal launch to the election campaign that will follow the end of the premier’s leadership troubles.
In a sense, it can be argued, temporarily disavowing the party’s far right and painting the UCP as a moderate centrist party is not so different from what Kenney did in his 2019 campaign.
The question is whether the UCP’s right wing will continue to accept his ideological winks and nudges and hold their noses and vote for him one more time.
Well, he’s gotten away with tactical rhetorical reversals before, so he may well think, why not one more time?
Beyond that, Kenney took credit for the almost balanced budget passed Thursday in the Legislature—never mind that is was almost entirely the result of recently surging oil prices driven by factors outside Alberta’s control.
He touted his leadership through the public health and economic crisis of the pandemic, slumping economy and low petroleum prices – not bothering to mention those times he disappeared for days on end while COVID-19 surged, leaving the province effectively leaderless.
And he claimed to have taken no salary for three years while working to create the UCP, which is true as long as you don’t count the salary he received from the Government of Canada for being MP for Calgary—Midnapore.
“I decided to continue to offer in the spirit of servant leadership my continued service,” Kenney piously told his news conference.
Look for more of the same in the days ahead.
In particular, brace yourselves to hear the word “mainstream” over and over again.
Unless, of course, Jean’s supporters manage to muster enough votes to derail the premier’s efforts.
Yesterday Jean was promoting a poll that suggested the UCP would do better in a general election against the NDP if he led the party than if Kenney remained at the helm.
If Jean succeeds, well, everything will be different … and everything will be the same.
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