This election and the events leading up to it have been some of the most dramatic in recent memory.
The road leading us to this day began back in January, with the resignation of Justin Trudeau as prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party.
After 10 years in power, Trudeau had become deeply unpopular with Pierre Poilievre and his Conservative Party leading the Liberals in the polls at that time by nearly 20 points.
As the race for leader began to take shape, another event in the US would take place that would again redefine Canada’s future: the inauguration of Donald Trump for his second term as president on January 20.
Trump quickly introduced tariffs against Canada and made threats to Canada’s sovereignty by stating he wished to annex the country.
The Donald Trump factor quickly changed the Canadian political landscape.
For years Poilievre had campaigned against the Liberals’ tax on carbon, and against so-called “woke” policies. Now the political thermometer was turned on its head and it was Poilievre who was feeling the pressure as pundits and members of the public saw his attacks on migrants, journalists, and the 2SLGBTQIA+ community as an echo of Trump’s political style.
Throughout the campaign, Poilievre has not been able to shake these comparisons to Trump which hang over him like a shadow.
Tariffs, Trump, and Poilievre’s Trump-style populism created a perfect storm that led many who had intended to vote Conservative just weeks and months before to look for an alternative.
That alternative seemed to appear in the form of Mark Carney, who emerged triumphant in the race to be the next Liberal leader and prime minister.
After winning the leadership race, Carney quickly called the election after the Liberals shot up in the polls to overtake the Conservatives.
On election day, the Liberals maintain a slight edge in the polls, but questions remain.
Will the Liberal lead hold and will that mean they form a majority, or a minority government in the House of Commons?
Can Pierre Poilievre shake his Donald Trump sized baggage and eke out a win?
What happens to the representation of the progressive left in Parliament if the NDP loses a large number of seats, and who will protect the social programs the NDP had fought so hard for?
Stay tuned.
Live election updates
rabble’s live update coverage will be provided by Jack Layton Journalism for Change fellow Ashleigh-Rae Thomas and editor Nick Seebruch.
7:26 p.m.
With polls closed in Newfoundland and Labrador, the Liberals are leading in three ridings and the Conservatives are leading in two.
7:45 p.m.
The polls have closed in the Maritime provinces. So far, the Liberals have eight seats, and the Conservatives have three.
8:05 p.m.
CBC has declared that Philip Earle, the Liberal candidate for Labrador, has won a seat.
8:23 p.m.
Clifford Small, Conservative, has been projected as the elected Member of Parliament by the CBC.
8:27 p.m.
Paul Connors, the Liberal candidate for Avalon, has been elected, as per CBC
9:56 p.m.
Global News says NDP candidate Katherine Swampy is projected to earn a seat in Leduc Wetaskiwin
10:12 p.m.
CBC News has announced that the Liberal Party has won the election. Will this be a majority or a minority government?
10:33 p.m.
There is still no word yet on whether the Liberal Party government will be a majority or minority
10:36 p.m.
Mark Carney has been elected as a Member of Parliament for the first time in his career. His riding is Nepean, Ontario
11:40 p.m.
As we enter the final minutes of election day, the Liberals are elected in 69 ridings, leading in 92, the Conservatives elected in 65, leading in 83, the Bloc elected in 8, leading in 15, the NDP leading in 10, and the Greens elected in one.
One riding where the Conservatives are not leading is in leader Pierre Poilievre’s riding of Carleton. The Long Ballot Committee has long opposed Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system, calling it unrepresentative. As a protest they have run close to 100 candidates in Poilievre’s riding.
Thanks to the long ballot, at time of writing, Pierre Poilievre was trailing the Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy by nearly 200 points.
Poilievre was not the only leader trailing in their own riding.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, at time of writing, is trailing in third place with 1,604 votes to Conservative James Yan’s 2,743 and Liberal Wade Chang’s 3,261.
Liberal leader Mark Carney, Bloc leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, and Green Party leader Elizabeth May have all secured their seats.
As the midnight hour approaches, the question of whether the Liberals will return with a minority or majority government has yet to be determined.
12:00 a.m.
Of the NDP names that are returning to the House of Commons, Leah Gazan, Heather McPherson and Alexandre Boulerice have all been re-elected.
12:20 a.m.
In the early hours of Tuesday, April 29, it seems that things are beginning to settle and a clear picture is taking hold.
The Liberals seem to have secured the most seats in the House of Commons and will form government, likely a minority government with the Bloc holding the balance of power.
The NDP has seen a drop in their vote share in nearly every riding, with leader Jagmeet Singh unlikely to win re-election in Burnaby Central.
Stay tuned for rabble’s post-mortem election wrap-up analysis later in the day on Tuesday.
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