Rachel Notley, Alberta’s first NDP premier and the woman who in 2015 broke the Progressive Conservative party’s seemingly unshakable grip on power in this province, has announced her full departure from politics.
In a social media post this morning, Notley stated her intention to write the Speaker of the Alberta Legislature and resign her position as MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona effective December 30.
Beyond that, the statement – which you can read for yourself here – was mostly political boilerplate typical of retirement commentaries published by politicians leaving the field honourably after a long period of service, nearly 17 years as an MLA and a decade as party leader in Notley’s case.
The announcement didn’t come as a surprise. Notley made history by leading the NDP to an unexpected majority government on May 5, 2015, but saw her party go down to defeat at the hands of the United Conservative Party in the next two general elections in 2019 and 2023.
On January 16 this year, after a disappointing loss in the May 2023 election, she announced her intention to quit as leader as soon as a new one was chosen. On June 22, former Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi was named as her replacement after a crushing 86-per-cent victory in the party’s leadership race.
Ms. Notley immediately retreated to the party’s back benches, but everyone in political Alberta understood that change was only temporary. She was replaced as Opposition leader in the Legislature by MLA Christina Gray until Nenshi could take up a seat in the House, which up to now he has appeared to be in no hurry to do.
So yesterday’s statement came as an expected coda, not terribly dramatic, immediately replaced by media speculation about whether Mr. Nenshi would run in her soon-to-be-vacant central Edmonton riding – which is pretty much the safest electoral district for the NDP in Alberta.
Notley included in her announcement a statement that “Naheed Nenshi’s selection represents a tremendous opportunity for all Albertans seeking practical solutions to the affordability crisis, along with a genuine commitment to fixing our health care so that all Albertans can get the support they need no matter where they live or how much they earn.”
Was this a hint that she thinks Nenshi should run in Edmonton-Strathcona, or merely a gracious wave of farewell to the new leader? It’s not entirely clear.
If Nenshi does run in Edmonton-Strathcona, he might be expected to be challenged by other prominent Alberta NDPers who have had their eyes on the riding since it became obvious it would be looking for a new MLA soon.
But if the party declares that he will be the candidate and there will be no nomination contest, as has been rumoured in the past few days, the new leader may need to pour oil on what could turn out to be troubled waters.
Perhaps a pledge to run in Calgary in the next election would be enough. Regardless, if Nenshi becomes the NDP’s candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona, he will need one of his characteristically disarming remarks to respond to the obvious irony of a former mayor of Calgary running to represent a central Edmonton riding.
Whoever runs to replace Notley as Edmonton-Strathcona MLA could have some organizational work to do as well. Notley was so popular within the riding that the party didn’t have to organize within its boundaries. That might still be so, or it might not. It would probably be best to assume nothing and not take that chance.
Premier Danielle Smith is required to call a by-election within six months of Notley’s resignation.
There’s not much she could do within that time frame to be a bad sport. Still, the UCP has shown a willingness to play games with the timing of by by-elections before – refusing to call one in Calgary-Elbow in 2022 at the same time Smith was seeking a safe rural seat, and timing next Wednesday’s Lethbridge-West by-election to take place when University of Lethbridge students are expected to be out of town.
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Nick Seebruch, editor
