A sign for a polling station in the 2018 municipal election in Toronto.
A sign for a polling station in the 2018 municipal election in Toronto. Credit: Richard Eriksson / Flickr Credit: Richard Eriksson / Flickr

In light of John Tory’s sudden resignation, conversations about who should run for mayor are taking place around kitchen tables, in pubs, social clubs, organizational boardrooms and in the smoky backrooms of municipal politics far from voters and even campaign volunteers. Nominations for municipal election candidates in Toronto are usually opaque at best. There are some rules for candidates, like age and residency, but there are no formal nomination procedures. This differs from partisan provincial and federal elections in which party members play a role in candidate selection through democratic, nomination elections. 

While there’s a pretense that political parties are not involved in Ontario municipal politics, it is certain that the parties (and lobbyists) are also having these conversations. It’s important that left and centre decision makers, organizers and potential candidates appreciate the stakes in this exceptional, mayoral by-election.

How did we get here?

The imposition of the “megacity” on Metro Toronto in 1998 by the Mike Harris “common sense” revolutionaries was designed in large part to help conservatives control the Mayor’s office, reduce representation for residents/voters and diminish the influence of the old City of Toronto in decision-making. Under the old “Metro” governance model, the city and each of five boroughs had a mayor and their own councils. The stated purpose of the amalgamation was to “save money” by reducing the number of politicians/staff, amalgamate municipal services and where possible, privatize or contract out those services. These savings never materialized. Doug Ford went on to further slash Council to 26 members using similar arguments in 2018.

For the most part, the Conservatives have achieved their goals of controlling the Toronto Mayor’s office. Mel Lastman, Rob Ford and John Tory held the office for 19 of the past 26 years. By contrast, centre-left David Miller held it for the other 7 years and here are some of the keys to his electoral success: 

  • high profile in municipal politics having served on Metro Council and Toronto Council from 1994-2003
  • big ideas – e.g. clean up corruption at City Hall, Transit City, environment, democratizing the megacity through community councils and other measures
  • on the TTC Board, was very familiar with transit issues and used the TTC, even as mayor
  • a left/centre alliance in his mayoral campaigns
  • support from across the new megacity
  • professional campaign management
  • majority support from city council to implement his agenda

In his 2006 re-election bid, Miller garnered 57 per cent of the vote and came out ahead in 42 out of 44 wards. He was clearly popular. Miller would have likely won a third term had he run again despite the “stink” from what became known as “the garbage strike”. His hand-picked successor withdrew from the Mayor’s race.  In 2010, both the left and the centre ran candidates (Joe Pantalone and George Smitherman). Rob Ford handily won that election with 47 per cent of the vote.

In 2014, Tory was able to scoop most of the centre votes and defeated the right-wing, faux-populist Doug Ford who went on to become Premier of Ontario four years later. Also on the ballot was NDPer Olivia Chow. Conservatives Tory and Ford garnered 74 per cent of the total vote. 

In 2018 and 2022, no serious contenders from the left or centre ran as mayoral candidates. In 2018, John Tory cruised to victory with 63.5 per cent of the vote. Former Chief City Planner Jennifer Keesmat got about 23 per cent. In 2022, Tory got 62 per cent while rookie challenger Gil Penalosa got almost 18 per cent. Groups like Toronto Labour Council chose to focus on the ward races in light of Tory’s strength. While that may have been practical, it may have also been a factor contributing to lower voter turnout (2018 – 41 per cent, 2022 – 29 per cent). The 2014 election had a record 60 per cent voter turnout up from 50.5% in 2010.

John Tory’s unexpected resignation opens up opportunities 

Left/centre progressives in Toronto must not sit out this race. It may be our only chance in the next decade to win the Mayor’s office. Winning is possible with a powerful left/centre alliance that reaches deep into neighborhoods in every corner of Toronto and reflects the city’s multi-racial character. 

The winning conditions and strategy would include the following:

  1. A single, high-profile candidate known city-wide with appeal to both the left and centre. “Go it alone” candidates likely cannot win.
  2. Quickly mount a professionally managed and well-funded campaign.
  3. A candidate with high-profile, well-known endorsers, influencers and community leaders from across the city including each former city borough. 
  4. A candidate with a deep understanding of the impact of government policies on Indigenous, racialized and other marginalized communities.
  5. Offer an exciting, long-term vision and platform for the City with a green lens and a maximum of five key points on what voters care about and that the left and centre can agree on including transit/transportation policies. 
  6. A candidate with a deep understanding and track record of addressing housing, the un-housed and special housing challenges in Toronto, e.g. youth, seniors, refugees.
  7. A candidate willing to renounce the use of the “strong mayor powers”.
  8. Endorsement by the Toronto Labour Council and similar bodies from the centre.

There may not be one perfect candidate who meets all these criteria but this list is a starting place. Our next mayor could break the conservative mold if we can build a broad, inclusive coalition. 

I’d like to thank the people who provided input into drafts of this story.

Gary A. Shaul

Gary Shaul is a life-long Torontonian and retired Ontario civil servant. He's been involved with a number of issues over the past 45 years including trade unionism, proportional representation, Indigenous...