Friday’s revelation that neither Finance Minister Travis Toews nor Environment Minister Sonya Savage would be running for re-election in the expected May 29 provincial vote quickly gave way to speculation about who, or at least what kind of candidates would replace them in the short spell remaining till the election writ is dropped, presumably on May 1.
Whoever the candidates turn out to be, they won’t be enemies of Premier Danielle Smith plotting an insurgency against the leader like Brian Jean did last year when he used the by-election in Fort McMurray-Cold Lake as a platform to try to topple Jason Kenney as premier and replace him as leader of the United Conservative Party (UCP).
As readers know, Jean may have succeeded at the first half of that mission but failed miserably at the second – proving once and for all that sometimes half a loaf isn’t better than none.
The UCP quickly published a statement on social media Friday afternoon quoting Premier Smith thanking the two departing senior ministers – neither of whom had mentioned her, let alone said anything nice – for their service.
The two social media statements did say, however, that there would be no nomination candidate election in either Savage’s Calgary-North West riding or Toews’s northwestern redoubt of Grande Prairie-Wapiti.
“I will be working with the party and the constituency association to appoint a UCP candidate through Section 8 of our Candidate Selection Process so the candidate can get to work immediately keeping Calgary-North West a UCP stronghold on May 29,” the premier said in her statement about Savage’s departure.
“Given the proximity to the coming provincial election, I will be working with the party and the local constituency association to locate and appoint a new candidate for the constituency of Grande Prairie-Wapiti under Section 8 of our Candidate Selection Process, so that the new candidate can hit the ground running and assure a UCP victory in this constituency when votes are cast on May 29,” said the statement about Toews’s decision.
The emphasis was added by me in both statements.
READ MORE: Alta. finance & environment ministers won’t seek re-election
Says Section 8 of the UCP’s rules: “If deemed to be in the best interest of the Party, and in consultation with the PCSC, the Leader may appoint up to four (4) Candidates in four (4) constituencies.” (PCSC means the Party Candidate Selection Committee; I can’t explain, however, why the UCP capitalizes so many words.)
Now, as it happens, Savage was acclaimed as the UCP’s candidate in Calgary-North West back in August, when Jason Kenney was still premier and she was both still minister of energy and the chair of Toews’s leadership campaign. That probably tells you everything you need to know right there about Savage’s change of heart.
As for Toews, he’s played his cards close to his vest since he narrowly lost the UCP leadership race to Smith on October 6, but nobody really expected him to stick around and face being kicked out of cabinet, demoted, or, perhaps worst of all, having to serve another term as finance minister with the prospect of needing to explain why the big surplus he announced on February 28 had turned into another big deficit. (Answer: Oil prices, same as always in Alberta.)
Because probably any old UCP candidate can win in Grande Prairie-Wapiti, the burning question is who Smith will appoint in Calgary-North West.
Two strategies suggest themselves – and it’s quite possible they’re mutually exclusive:
1. Appoint someone with the imprimatur of the far-right, anti-vaccine, pro-Convoy, Take Back Alberta crowd that now basically runs the UCP and at whose pleasure Ms. Smith serves.
2. Appoint someone high-profile and popular enough that they can beat the NDP in a Calgary riding.
This spawned a rumour Smith would appoint Trade, Immigration and Multiculturalism Minister Rajan Sawhney, another former UCP leadership candidate who announced on February 17 that she would not be seeking nomination or re-election in her Calgary-North East riding.
Rumors at the time had Sawhney planning a run for the House of Commons, but, as they say, a week is a long time in politics.
Sawhney at least praised the premier in her farewell tweet thread in February and has knuckled under Smith’s command.
At the same time, she was one of the more progressive sounding candidates in the UCP leadership race, which might help in Savage’s riding. However, it also got her soundly defeated by UCP members, second last of the seven candidates with only the other progressive-sounding candidate, Leela Aheer, doing worse.
But her appointment would at least insure that no inconvenient genuine Red Tory could take a run at the Calgary-North West nomination, causing the TBA cadres to grow restive.
Some UCP members may also be plotting to overturn Kenney lieutenant Jason Nixon’s nomination in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre to make way for a candidate more to their liking, but internal party democracy is obviously a one-way street in a party dominated by Danielle Smith and the TBA.
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Nick Seebruch, editor
