On January 27, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moved the hands of the Doomsday clock closer to midnight. The clock is a metaphor for the existential dangers posed to humanity and midnight represents the point of global catastrophe. The experts have set the clock ahead to 85 seconds, the closest humanity has ever been to midnight.
The Bulletin was established in late 1945 by scientists and engineers in response to the United States’ horrific atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Two years later, they created the Doomsday Clock to alert the public to the grave threat of nuclear weapons. At that time, they set the clock to seven minutes to midnight.
Over the past two decades, the Bulletin has expanded its risk assessment to include the climate crisis and disruptive technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI). These nuclear, climate and technological risks are connected and compounding. Experts are concerned that the integration of AI into military technologies has the potential to influence a nuclear escalation.
Currently, nine countries possess a combined 12,321 nuclear warheads with the majority held in military stockpiles ready for use in missiles, aircraft, ships and submarines. These nuclear-armed states are modernizing their arsenals. In its National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) passed by Congress in December, the U.S. has allocated $60 billion for a major upgrade of its land, air, and sea-based nuclear triad and billions more for new AI military capabilities.
Worryingly, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the last significant nuclear arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia is set to expire in February. As the Arms Control Association has reported, Russia has offered to extend the treaty by one-year, but the U.S. has not responded.
The U.S. and Russia each possess over 5,000 nuclear weapons with a limited number of them deployed. New START restricts both countries to the deployment of 1,550 warheads and 700 delivery vehicles. If the treaty expires, all legally binding constraints will be removed on the world’s two largest arsenals of weapons of mass destruction.
The Bulletin is also concerned that an arms race will accelerate with President Trump’s announcement of “Golden Dome,” the new multilayered missile defence that will incorporate space-based interceptors. Missile defence systems can be used offensively and enable a ‘first-strike’ nuclear attack. The Bulletin has called on countries to “avoid destabilizing investments in missile defense.”
Canada, however, is exacerbating the nuclear risk. Prime Minister Carney has declared Ottawa’s intention to participate in Trump’s “Golden Dome” that could cost Canadian tax payers $71 billion USD. The federal government also refuses to join the United Nations’ Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which is supported by the majority of the public.
Worse still, conflicts that involve nuclear-armed states are escalating. The U.S. and its NATO allies continue to send weapons to Ukraine to prolong the war with Russia. Over the past six months, the Carney government has provided a further $2 billion in ammunition, missiles and drones to Ukraine. In the NDAA, Washington has allocated funding over the next two years for weapons to Kyiv.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has positioned its massive Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group with nuclear submarines and nuclear-capable fighter jets and bombers in the Arabian Sea in preparation for another attack alongside Israel against Iran, which threatens a disastrous regional conflagration.
The President of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Alexandra Bell, warned “The Doomsday Clock’s message cannot be clearer. Catastrophic risks are on the rise, cooperation is on the decline, and we are running out of time.”
The Canadian government should use its new found “middle power,” as described by the Prime Minister Carney in his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, to promote de-nuclearization and diplomacy to reduce the nuclear threat and resolve the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.
Canada should stop sending weapons to Ukraine and contribute to a durable peace deal with Russia that addresses the root causes of the war. The federal government should not join Trump’s dangerous Golden Dome and instead join the TPNW.
To help turn back the clock, public pressure and political will are urgently needed for international peace and disarmament.
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Nick Seebruch, editor
