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Fact-checking Adam Vaughan and $15-per-day child care

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The claim: only eight per cent of families in the riding of Spadina-Fort York have children, so the NDP's plan for $15 per day daycare doesn't resonate with the riding's residents.

There are 82,000 people in the riding of Spadina-Fort York. This is a new riding that represents the downtown core of Toronto. In 2011, there was very strong NDP support, with some Liberal support in the northeast part of the new riding. Sean Marshall combined the results of the two byelections show just how up-for-grabs the riding is: most of the orange in the 2011 map flipped red during these byelections.

This riding is extremely important to both the Liberals and the NDP and Adam Vaughan is under great pressure to save his seat. It might explain why he'd utter a fact that doesn't seem to add up.

Consider City of Toronto data from the 2011 Census: in the municipal riding of Trinity Spadina (which is most of the Western half of the new riding) about 2.9 per cent of the population are under five and in Toronto Centre-Rosedale (most of the Eastern half), the under five population is 4.6 per cent (compared with a Toronto average of 5.4). Nineteen per cent of families living in Spadina-Fort York have children living at home with them and 8 per cent of those children would be eligible for daycare. Teasing out the number of families, or adults who would benefit from cheaper daycare costs from this number becomes tricky. 

There is also a mini baby boom happening within the waterfront communities, all of which are in the new riding. There has been a 66 per cent surge in the number of babies, This is the second-largest baby boom among Toronto communities.

Of course, it's important to note that per-child costs at the Toronto Early Years Centre are $106.90 per day for infants to 18 months and $95.16 for toddlers. If you're lucky, you might be able to find a home daycare and pay $45.51 per day.

Maybe Adam was simply caught on a bad day. As a left-leaning Liberal, he probably hates having to argue why $15 per day child care would be a bad thing.

 

An earlier version of this incorrectly interpreted census family data. 

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Image: Flickr/@spaikin

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