The talk in downtown Ottawa, on the Sparks St. mall, a block from Parliament Hill, is about the probable transfer of power to Stephen Harper. Apparently Paul Martin will not be forced to hand over government — he put it in his wife and children’s name.

With less than a week to go in election 2004, three questions overshadow the campaign jostling. Could the Conservatives conceivably get a majority? Can Paul Martin hold on to the Liberal leadership after the election? What can be done before June 28?

The first two questions go together. Should Harper get a majority, Martin is in trouble along with the rest of us. In fact, regardless of the outcome, expect Liberal party warfare to continue under Martin, until a peacemaker candidate to the succession emerges: a new face, one who is not identified either with Martin or Chrétien; someone like Ken Dryden. At that point Martin will be forced to abdicate.

Opinion polls suggest an answer to the first question. Harperâe(TM)s party is not breaking 35 per cent support. Even with our unrepresentative electoral system, he will need above 40 per cent, to form a majority government. The only way he will get it is if intended Liberal voters stay home on June 28, which is unlikely.

Conservative support in part of the West is so strong, it overstates national support. But, it is so weak in Quebec, that national support is understated. So, the two effects balance each other. The “national question” is how many seats can Harper win in Ontario? If he takes 75, and adds to it another 75 in the West, then he could well pick up the five seats needed for his majority in Atlantic Canada.

Sorry if I unsettled you, but the prospect of a Harper government does focus our attention on the third question. Until election day, what to do?

The Liberals are now polling around 30 per cent. Under Chrétien they had about ten points more. The missing voters have gone over to Jack Layton; the Liberals want them back. But, plenty of intended NDP voters want to register their anger against the government, and they do not want to vote Liberal. Nor should they be stampeded into doing so in order to stop Harper.

The NDP are registering support as they did before Brian Mulroney alerted us to the need to defeat his agenda. That is when NDP voters went to Chrétien, and Canada got ten more years of free trade, deregulation, and privatization.

New Liberal ads link Harper to Mulroney. In fact, Liberal policies are the problem for which they purport to be the solution. Medicare is broken, and they broke it, and now want Canadians to vote for them, so they can fix it, in partnership with big business.

Under these circumstances, a vote for anybody other than the NDP outside Quebec is a vote for more Mulroney-Martin polices — as if 20 years was not enough.

A Harper minority, or a Martin minority means the same thing: each would need the other to stay in power. They start with a lot of economic policy in common. Both would be taking careful steps, ever watchful of voter opinion.

So, until June 28, pass the word. Let the Liberals get out their own vote; it negates a Conservative vote, and prevents a Harper majority. But a vote for Harper or Martin is a vote for a “wannabe” or a “has been” Mulroney.

The outcome of this election is likely to be another one in less than 12 months. A vote for the NDP is a strategic vote. It tells the Liberals they can not be trusted to fight for a just society.

With the new election financing act guaranteeing parties financial support equivalent to their electoral support, a vote for the NDP puts money into the party. It could go for much needed research and political education.A stronger party helps Jack Layton carry his agenda out into society where the battle for public opinion is won and lost before every election.

And, it’s through fighting it out in civil society that the Harper social agenda will be defeated, not by having progressives vote Liberal.

Duncan Cameron

Duncan Cameron

Born in Victoria B.C. in 1944, Duncan now lives in Vancouver. Following graduation from the University of Alberta he joined the Department of Finance (Ottawa) in 1966 and was financial advisor to the...