A new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report concluded that the world can still halve carbon emissions by 2030.
The findings suggest that “without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees celcius is beyond reach.”
Drafted by 278 authors spanning 65 countries, the nearly 3,700 page report, titled Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, was published on Monday, one month after another report from the IPCC that looked at the harms of the climate crisis on mental health.
A Monday press release issued by the IPCC noted that between 2010 and 2019, “average annual global gas emissions were at their highest levels in human history.” The news wasn’t all bad though, as the release pointed out that the rate of growth has slowed.
“Having the right policies, infrastructure and technology in place to enable changes to our lifestyles and behaviour can result in a 40-70 [per cent] reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This offers significant untapped potential,” said IPCC Working Group III Co-Chair Priyadarshi Shukla. “The evidence also shows that these lifestyle changes can improve our health and well-being.”
The report concluded that in order to halve emissions by 2030, a dramatic shift to green energy will be required on a global scale. “This will involve a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use, widespread electrification, improved energy efficiency, and use of alternative fuels (such as hydrogen).” In urban areas, emissions can be reduced “through lower energy consumption (such as by creating compact, walkable cities),” as well as making public transportation electric in tandem with low-emission energy sources.”
Meeting these targets won’t be easy. The report estimates that if the world has any chance of limiting global warming to around 1.5 degrees celsius, greenhouse gas emissions will have to be reduced by 43 per cent by 2030, and methane emissions by roughly 33 per cent.
“Even if we do this, it is almost inevitable that we will temporarily exceed this temperature threshold but could return to below it by the end of the century,” the press release continued, explaining that the global temperature will stabilize “when carbon dioxide emissions reach net zero.”
This report follows up on previous research by the IPCC, with new components including a chapter on the social aspects of migration in the context of what drives consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The report also includes a new chapter on “innovation, technology development and transfer.”
A media presentation of the IPCC report noted that “zero emissions targets have been adopted by at least 826 cities and 103 regions” worldwide.
For the Minister of Environment and Climate Change, Steven Guilbeault, the report serves as a reminder that “the science of climate change is complex and global in nature.”
“This IPCC report is a key resource in understanding our options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and removing them from the atmosphere,” Guilbeault said in a statement Monday. “This work will continue to inform the Government of Canada’s actions to improve resilience, reduce emissions, and build the net‑zero economy of the future.”
Guilbeault pointed to the Liberal government’s efforts to combat the climate crisis that include reducing methane emissions, moving to a net-zero emitting electricity grid by 2035, and investing $5.3 billion over the next five years “to help developing countries fight—and adapt to—climate change and protect biodiversity.”
For Laurel Collins, the NDP Critic for the Environment and Climate Change, the report issued a sobering ultimatum: now or never.
Collins noted that one of the biggest barriers highlighted by the IPCC report to meaningfully mitigating climate change boils down to political will.
“[The] report identified that even if all policies to cut carbon that were in place by the end of 2022, the world will still warm by 3.2 degrees this century,” Collins said in a Monday press release. “Bolder action is urgently needed.”
The release took several shots at the Liberals—the same party the NDP finalized a confidence-and-supply agreement with just ten days ago—referring to Trudeau’s decision to purchase the Trans Mountain pipeline in 2018, and even denouncing last week’s move by the Liberals to increase oil production by 300,000 barrels a day.
For the Greens, the report shows that “Canada is on the wrong side of history,” according to a Monday statement from the party.
The Green Party’s release invoked a comment from UN Secretary General Antonio Gueterres at the report’s press conference: “Climate activists are sometimes depicted as dangerous radicals. But the truly dangerous radicals are the countries increasing the production of fossil fuels.”
“That means us,” said Green Party interim leader Dr. Amita Kuttner. “Within the IPCC deliberations, it was reported that pro-fossil fuel countries, including Canada, tried to water down the language. So we stand accused as ‘dangerous radicals’.”
Green Party parliamentary leader and MP for Saanich-Gulf Island, Elizabeth May, pointed out in the release that the latest IPCC report shows that greenhouse gas emissions actually increased by 12 per cent between 2010 and 2019.
“It appears that emissions from Canada’s oil and gas sector jumped at least 25 per cent between 2010 and 2019, with oil sands emissions being the fastest growing source of GHGs in Canada—137 per cent increase between 2005 to 2019.”
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