Rural Ontario Credit: Perfectus Photography & Design Co / Unsplash Credit: Perfectus Photography & Design Co / Unsplash

Tuesday, January 18th Oakville Council heard from 13 eloquent delegations who spoke about the need to protect 5,200 acres of prime farmland on the chopping block in Halton Region (Halton), Ontario.

Instead of voting to save invaluable farmland, Oakville Council unanimously voted to submit harsh criticisms of the proposal to extend Halton’s Settlement Area Boundary.

Despite sounding like a win, this is far from it.

In a phone conversation the following day, Oakville Councillor Tom Adams indicated that he anticipated Oakville staff returning with a more moderate number of acres for development before the regional vote on February 9.  He indicated that would be a proposal that he could support.

Oakville’s Mayor, Rob Burton, has made it clear on several occasions that he co-operates with neighbouring regions in a reciprocal way. Add to that gentleman’s agreement, that Burton seems poised  to throw his hat in the ring for Regional Chair and there’s little doubt he will support Milton and Halton Hills in their efforts to push for expansion of the current urban boundary.

Milton Council voted later that same evening, 7 – 2, in favour of the Town staff recommendations which added even more land to the proposed urban area where the 401 and 407 will eventually intersect with the proposed highway 413. An exact estimate of how much land is involved was not available as the resolution is worded so that any surplus lands in the proposed highway 413 area will be included as future employment lands. These lands were not already included in the proposed employment areas in the Preferred Growth Plan.

Milton Councillor Colin Best voted against accepting staff recommendations. His well researched presentation starts at 3:07:30 of the recorded council meeting and runs for about 12 minutes laying bare the truth that the current growth projections can easily be accommodated without sprawling onto farmland.

The province has imposed a growth rate of two per cent per year compounded annually on Halton Region. That growth is scheduled for 2021 until 2051. However, Statistics Canada census data proves over the past 70 years Ontario’s growth has been less than two per cent per year – with the exception of 1991. Increases consistently averaged 1.5 per cent per year or less. That makes meeting provincial dictates impossible.

Milton’s year end building report for 2021 also shows expansion onto prime farmland is not needed. Staff projected yearly applications of 1,500 units but the actual number was 1,183 or 72 per cent of that projection.

Even before COVID19, the trend in actual home construction had been trending downwards. Staff annually project the need for 1,500 new home building permits, yet that number has only been achieved twice in the last ten years. On average 1,300 applications are made annually.

Add to that the fact that the housing market has been rapidly evolving over the past decade. Applications for 834 apartment units, 254 townhouse units and 71 single family dwellings were filed by year-end 2021. These numbers are a clear indication of the direction in which housing demand is moving.

As of January 1, 2022, there were over 1,000 applications for medium to high density apartment units. Another 2,600 units were already approved including one application that was approved three years ago and has yet to break ground.

There are also 5,193 units currently under review in addition to two 15-story towers that had already been approved for the corner of Bronte Road and Lois St. Laurent Avenue.

That means a total of 8,8000 medium to high density units currently in the planning process can be added to planned development around mobility hubs set to house 27,000 people when completed.

Best’s numbers show that Milton is already exceeding the 16,000 units that staff recommended. The densification that is underway will lead to improved transit and walkable communities with a mix of housing options for singles, couples and families.

Best points out that sufficient employment lands have also already been allocated. A prime example is the 401 industrial park, approved 40 years ago, that has not been completed. There is also a lot of land fronting onto the 401 that has not even been applied for yet. Add into the mix the changing face of employment with more people working from home and Milton is in a good place with its commercial and industrial lands.

According to Best, “I believe this process has been flawed due to COVID-19, by the changing nature of employment, and the lack of public input with no public in-person or online advertised meetings since the preferred option was presented to Regional Council on November 17th 2021.”

Best went on to say, “Also, all council’s and staff do not yet have the final data from the 2021 Census to review and incorporate in this new Official Plan of the changes in residential and employment units.”

Councillor Tesser Derksen voted against the staff report but for different reasons than Best. Derksen supports continuing to build single family homes because she believes they attract potential employees that would otherwise move to other locals. When you crunch the numbers that really isn’t the case because many employees currently reside in Brampton and travel to Milton for work because housing is unaffordable.  

In November 2021 the average housing price was $1.1 million for all homes. That price jumps to $1.4 million for single detached homes. Building more single-family dwellings on prime farmland is clearly not the answer because young people and young families cannot afford them.

The median household income for Milton is $122,506 (December 2021). In order to get a 25-year mortgage on a $1.1 million home, buyers must have a 20 per cent down payment of $220,000. That leaves a mortgage of $880,000 and based on a five per cent interest rate, monthly payments would be $5,118.12 or $61,417.44 annually.

However, this buyer would likely be denied an $880,00 mortgage because their Gross Debt Service ration is 54.54 per cent which exceeds the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada’s ratio of 32 per cent. Even using a Total Debt Service (TDS) ration of 40 per cent, at 54.54 per cent the actual TDS ratio for this household is too high. And, these calculations are not even based on that illusive single-family home.

According to Phil Pothen, Ontario Environmental Program Manager with Environmental Defence: “The truth is that we made a huge mistake – over the past 50 or 60 years, frankly – by building neighborhoods at densities that are too low and layouts too indirect to support frequent reliable transit or shops, secondary schools and amenities within easy walking or cycling distance. The push to meet housing demand is actually our last best chance to FIX mistakes we’d need to fix anyhow, and give post-war neighborhoods the densities they should have had in the first place”

He went on to say, “It’s absolutely true that if we build our housing supply in the way we ‘were’ building housing in the 1980s and 1990s, then the consequences will be catastrophic.  That’s because the part of Ontario where almost everyone wants to live is the ONLY region with ideal climate and soils for growing food, and the only region where many of our endangered species can live.”

Pothen points out that continuing to push the agenda of building single-family dwellings on prime farmland will not solve the affordability issue. In fact, a mix of housing options with emphasis on the missing middle will bring in similar development charges. Concentrating essential services like hospitals centrally within city boundaries and near public transportation makes more sense than building them on greenfield or farmland where transit is non-existent.

It will be 2051 before all the land currently being held for development in Milton is finally used. More land is not the answer to the housing crisis. Instead, the province needs to end exclusionary zoning laws. The Ford government needs to discourage replacing smaller home tear downs with McMansions and encourage housing designs that include three-story multi-plex, semi-detached, and town homes on those same lots.

Even a single 1,050 square foot house, like those built in the 1970’s, would enable buyers to access a more affordable home with a backyard. Builders would benefit from constructing two to three homes per tear down. Improved housing design and affordability will get Ontario out of this crisis and that’s something supply alone cannot do.

Pothen remains optimistic that municipalities and regions will do the right thing, “The good news is that if we build this housing the right way – within existing neighborhoods and built-up areas- meeting this demand can be a huge environmental benefit. We can reduce our overall carbon emissions and reduce our adverse impacts on natural heritage.”

Halton Hills council votes on the PGP on February 1st. Burlington previously voted to support staff recommendations that did not support the PGP.

On February 9, representatives from Halton’s four regions vote as Regional Council on the PGP which, thanks to Milton, now proposes expanding onto more than 5,200 acres of prime farmland.

February 9 is the same day that Statistics Canada releases new census data.

Doreen Nicoll

Doreen Nicoll is weary of the perpetual misinformation and skewed facts that continue to concentrate wealth, power and decision making in the hands of a few to the detriment of the many. As a freelance...