The BC NDP should not bet on the Liberal government disintegrating under Premier Christy Clark.

Sure, there are tensions within the Liberal centre-right coalition.  (What coalition hasn’t gone through that?)  Sure, Clark has been known to engage her mouth faster than her brain from time to time.  (Who hasn’t?)  But the Official Opposition will have to adapt to the new situation, and realize that it can’t win by sparring with the ghost of Gordon Campbell.

That being said, Clark and her Liberal government face difficult challenges on the way to winning a fourth term in office.

(For an astute synopsis of the situation see David Schreck’s blog.)

I want to focus on three of the large problems confronting Clark; how she handles them will have a large impact on the health of her party’s coalition and on its standing with the public.

First, the HST. 

The Liberals cannot win this issue.  They are counting on squeaking out a victory for the tax in the upcoming referendum, but even that long-shot scenario is loaded with political downside for them.

The pitch by government and its corporate backers is that, yes, the HST is good for you, but more acutely, the cost of getting out of it would be disastrous – not only having to refund the $1.6 billion participation-reward from Ottawa, but also the cost to government and to business of re-constructing the old Provincial Sales Tax and its collection system.

If by some fluke the yes-to-HST side wins the referendum, all that will mean is that large numbers of British Columbians feel that the government has trapped them into a bad and deceptive tax to the point that they can’t get out without inflicting even more harm.  Hardly a vote of confidence in the Liberals – in fact, in essence even a more dismal condemnation of their policies.

As I have opined before, Clark’s best move is to cut the Liberals’ losses and kill the HST.  This at least gives some credibility to the message that this is a new government that has shed Gordon Campbell’s skin (sort of like a molting reptile).  But that move would bring large political challenges, alienating her corporate backers and stirring dissention within her own party.  Even if she favoured killing the HST prior to the referendum, it may be politically impossible for her, especially during her first few months in office, when she is busy re-uniting her divided ranks and has no seat in the legislature.

Second, the budget.

Here the story line is simple.  Corporate tax cuts have flooded the government with red ink. Even natural gas royalties, where huge reserves are being exploited in the northeast, are way down because the market is glutted with cheap, environmentally-devastating shale gas extraction. Health care, education, child protection, and all other government services are starved for money, and Clark has promised various enhancements in the usual glib campaigning style.

Killing the HST would exacerbate this problem for Clark, but she’d be wiser to get in front of the parade before the referendum, than to wait and get trampled by the voters.

Third, election timing.

Which leads to the last of my issues for today, the timing of the next election.  During her campaign for the Liberal leadership, Clark proposed a quick election.  She quickly retracted this promise. Timing the next vote is one of her tougher issues.

As I have noted, the HST referendum is a political blow to the government no matter how that vote goes.  They cannot risk going to the polls until the undertow from that shipwreck has cleared.  That will not occur the day after the referendum is held.  It will take time.

The more time passes, and the closer we get to the non-binding legislated fixed election date, the more difficult it gets for the government to justify tinkering with the date. And the longer they wait, the more time for the huge political challenges facing the Liberals to catch up with them.  A true dilemma.