Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Get used to it. That niggling feeling I had before Christmas — and that I noticed many other people had — has suddenly become flesh, with poll numbers showing the Tories competitive with the Liberals and with momentum. In a significant twist, many Quebec federalists are backing off from their intention to vote for the Bloc Québécois and are opting for the Tories (and some for the NDP) in their desire to give the Liberals a whack.

There are still two weeks to go, and it’s true that much might happen one way or the other. However, the logic is firmly in place for a Tory minority — although, emphatically, only that.

The main opposition rap against Stephen Harper is that he’s “scary” — an only recently converted right-wing radical who was into building a “firewall” around Alberta, hacking mercilessly at public programs, kissing up to U.S. Republican party militarism, accusing Atlantic Canadians of having a “culture of defeat,” and so on — and that he’s still nursing a secret agenda along those lines.

The fact is, however, that even if he is, he won’t be able to do much about it as head of a minority government essentially under the control of three parties to the left of him. In power, all the promises and policies you’re hearing now will mean nothing — it will all give way to horse-trading. If the polls show Harper approaching majority country, you’ll see his numbers dropping.

The interesting sidelight to all this is that so many people are calculating — waiting to see what the polls say others are going to do — before they make up their own minds. The collective desire, if there is such a thing, seems to be for minority government, out of mistrust for majorities — so much so that the issue of proportional representation, which would basically institutionalize minority government, is gaining traction.

As for the scary part of a Tory minority — the prospect of depending on the separatist Bloc for its continued existence, raised again by NDP Leader Jack Layton in the past few days — that, too, may not be as intimidating as it seems. It is a concern, but if the Bloc continues to drop in the polls (down from a high of 60 per cent earlier to 43 per cent in one poll last week, as federalists balk at the notion that their vote might be used by the Bloc as an argument for separation), that prospect will decline. Besides, the notion that a Tory government dependent on the Bloc would lead to constitutional mischief is mostly supposition.

Much has been said about Harper having a good campaign until now, and the Liberals having a bad one, capped off by the trace of scandal in the possible leak of information to stock traders in the income trust tax announcement. However, it’s more than just good or bad campaigns. The Liberals have been there for nearly 13 years and are dragging scandal. That’s usually deadly for any party. And the polls indeed show a high degree of “time for a change” attitude — something that should, theoretically, advantage the NDP as well.

The Liberal assumption was that they would tread water before Christmas when people were distracted, letting Harper display his political awkwardness, because the real campaign would only start after Christmas. Then they would turn on the jets, define the big “values” that separate them from the Tories, and make the big policy announcements. It may well be that Harper, with his policy-a-day announcements before Christmas, has staked out the terrain, and that Liberal attempts to retake it will be looked on as last-minute electioneering.

The Tories went briefly ahead midway through the 2004 campaign. The Liberals turned up the heat and they dropped. I doubt the Liberals can do that this time. Any heat the Liberals turn on now is apt to give off the whiff of desperation. Besides, last time the Tories had just re-made themselves into a new party, had no policy and were still trailing a divisive rift.

Also, at a deeper level, electing a Tory minority will be a sort of purgative of the type the Canadian body politic takes from time to time. As one elderly gentleman I know, a lifelong hard-rock Tory, rather dejectedly puts it: “The Tories will win. They’ll be in power a year and a half. The Liberals will regroup, then come back and clean up. It’ll be the best thing that ever happened to the Liberals. I’ve seen it all my life.”

Amen.