Finance Minister Nate Horner rose in the Alberta Legislature yesterday afternoon and delivered a Budget Speech with a split personality that reflects the rock and the hard place the United Conservative Party Government has found itself between.
Speaking in a monotonous drone inside the Legislative chamber as more than 2,000 striking public education workers and their supporters exuberantly chanted their derision on the steps of the building outside, Horner had the unenviable task of explaining that Alberta is once again the poor little rich kid of Confederation facing a looming financial crisis while also appearing to be calm, capable and in control.
The result was a bi-polar budget that delivers a long promised income tax cut that’ll cost $1.2 billion in the 2025-26 fiscal year, but also warns that hard times are comin’ round once more. Stern measures may be required.
Whether this will allow the UCP to muddle up the middle remains to be seen. Let’s face it, the Alberta government is a hot mess right now under the leadership of Horner’s boss, Premier Danielle Smith.
It’s mired in an ugly and persistent dodgy contracts scandal while proceeding full-steam ahead with related plans to tear apart and privatize the province’s public health care system. One cabinet minister has already quit over the contract allegations and there may be more to go. (The premier replaced former infrastructure minister Peter Guthrie yesterday with West Yellowhead MLA Martin Long.)
The government is also facing a stiff economic headwind from that American politician Premier Smith and many of her MLAs admire and support, and in at least one case went south to help elect.
And the government’s own prediction that oil and gas revenue will continue to tumble, $4.4 billion in the current fiscal year, is unchanged.
The government’s also been meddling in negotiations with more than 250,000 increasingly riled up public sector employees, like the more than 6,000 employees of nine school boards, many of whom were at the steps of the Legislature Building yesterday, represented by the Canadian Union of Public Employees. And while a general strike of public sector workers is unlikely, it wouldn’t be impossible if the UCP keeps pushing their buttons the way it has been.
Horner, who is about as colourful as a Charlie Chaplain movie and not as entertaining, delivered his speech in the style of an airline pilot calmly telling his passengers not to worry, even though the port engine conked out half an hour ago and there’s just an itty-bitty problem with the starboard landing gear. “Experience has prepared us for whatever may come our way,” he intoned. Now, if you’ll just assume the crash position …
One thing that will come our way, it turns out is – quelle horreur – a deficit!
“Budget 2025, if passed, will have a deficit of $5.2 billion,” the finance minister said with a virtual shrug and ho-hum. But that could jump to $8.7 billion in the worst case, the budget documents admitted, if not the speech or the press release.
That said, Horner delivered the news without the deficit panic characteristic of Conservative politicians. This contrasts dramatically with the Conservative hysteria in 2018 when the NDP projected a worst-case deficit almost identical to the UCP’s 2025 prediction. Well, folks, that was then and this is now.
The official name of yesterday’s budget address: Meeting the Challenge. Between the lines, though, Horner’s message was, Just trust me, we’ll muddle through like we always do. Accordingly, I’m calling Budget 2025 The Muddlin’ Through Budget.
As predicted, it turns out this is mostly those Trudeaus’ fault. Don’t forget, Horner reminded us, about those “damaging federal policies, from Trudeau the Elder’s National Energy Program in the 1970s to Trudeau Junior’s production cap, impact assessment act, and tanker bans today.”
There are also, he admitted momentarily, “the potential tariffs from the U.S. administration.” But that is “a phenomenon that is both new and old.” So don’t worry about it, I guess. The premier will think of something.
In contrast to the new eight-per-cent tax rate on income under $60,000, the budget also hikes the education portion on municipal property taxes enough to eventually cover one-third of education funding – virtually guaranteeing that those progressive municipal politicians the UCP so hates will get blamed this fall for the increase.
Now, maybe it was just me misinterpreting things, but Horner did seem to telegraph a willingness to find a little more money to settle with those increasingly cranky public sector unions.
Explaining how the government always puts a bit aside to deal with unscheduled disasters, natural and unnatural, Horner said, “this year we have significantly increased that amount to potentially address the uncertainty around tariffs, and the uncertainty around public bargaining settlements.”
So, does this mean the government will come across with enough dough to ensure peace in the valley? Or is this just the cost of bringing Elon Musk in as a consultant?
On the other hand, there’s not even a hint the government will change its destructive health care policies – that slow-motion train wreck is obviously Premier Smith’s hill to die on.
Well, I’ll leave you with this gem from Horner’s speech, which really should have been polished up a bit before it was placed in its setting:
“We stand on the shoulders of giants, hopefully we can finally rectify the mistakes of the past and meet the challenge of the moment, and other provinces can permit the free flow of goods from coast to coast to coast.”
So just who are we blaming here? The giants? Are the Trudeaus giants?
The context gives no hints.
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Nick Seebruch, editor
