Poilievre’s lead collapsing as he fumbles the Trump threat

Both Poilievre and Ford — who have enjoyed popularity beyond their own hardcore conservative bases, racking up huge support in vote-rich Ontario — now have a serious Trump problem.

Politically, both men are very in tune with Trump, and have said nice things about his policies over the years — things that appealed to their conservative supporters and didn’t attract much broader attention.

But, starting early last December, Trump’s threats to make Canada the 51^st state have overturned that applecart, leaving the two conservative leaders suddenly navigating very slippery political tightropes.

Poilievre, in particular, has been slow to grasp and adjust to the new Trump-created dynamic. Reluctant to abandon his successful strategy focused on attacking the carbon tax, the Conservative leader was restrained in his early reaction to the Trump threats, mostly stating without much emotion or fanfare that Canada would not become the 51^st state.

By late December, Poilievre was still comfortable associating himself with Trump, telling the Times of London that he could rebuild Canada’s relationship with Trump through a shared “warrior culture, not a woke culture.”

Poilievre’s subdued response — along with questions about how effective his sullen, smart-alecky jabs would be against a nuclear-armed, would-be dictator — have turned his rock-solid lead in the polls to jelly. A number of polls now have Poilievre in a close race against the unelected Mark Carney, who hasn’t even secured the Liberal leadership yet, but who has been clear and unequivocal in his opposition to the US “bully.”

So, while Carney denigrates Trump as a bully, Poilievre has elevated Trump to “warrior” status.

Finally, at an Ottawa rally last weekend, Poilievre tried to distance himself from Trump, vowing to “pay any price” to protect Canada’s sovereignty. But even this reset has some clear Trumpian vibes to it.

Realizing his old slogan “Canada is broken” isn’t quite right now that Canadians have become fiercely patriotic, Poilievre has adopted the new slogan “Canada First” — which bears an uncanny resemblance to Trump’s long-time slogan “America First.”

The Conservative leader is surely aware of that resemblance, as well as the vile connections of the “America First” slogan, which became widely associated with the Ku Klux Klan and antisemitism before World War II.

Poilievre also sounded very Trumpian earlier this month when he stressed that he planned to cover the costs of a new military base he wants to build in Canada’s north by using a payment method recently showcased by Trump — cutting foreign aid.

Presumably, these Trump-style flourishes are meant to reassure Poilievre’s pro-Trump followers that nothing has really changed, even as he ramps up his “pay any price” rhetoric to satisfy ordinary Canadians.

Doug Ford has a similar Trump problem, but he got out in front of it. He quickly donned his “Canada is Not for Sale” cap, talked tough about blocking U.S. liquor sales in Ontario and briefly threatened to shred Ontario’s $100 million contract with Elon Musk, the mega-billionaire who (along with his four-year-old son) appears to be running the Oval Office.

Ford’s fondness for Trump was exposed briefly earlier this month when a video surfaced in which the premier privately describes himself as “one hundred per cent” happy about Trump’s re-election, until the president “pulled out the knife.”

Ford’s premature election call may save him. Although completely unnecessary and hugely costly, it looks like it will enable him to lock in a new mandate next week before Ontarians fully grasp his long-time enthusiasm for the American megalomaniac who now looms ominously at our southern border.

Poilievre has proved less agile. And with a federal election still a couple of months away, his Trump problem will have more time to metastasize.

This article was originally published in the Toronto Star.